Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

St. Mirren v Falkirk

Saturday 19 December 2026, 15:00 · The Marbill Coaches Stadium · Round 19

Forecast

St. MirrenFalkirk
Expected goals1.341.16
Win40%32%
Expected Points1.491.23
Clean sheet31%26%

St. Mirren 40%Draw 28%Falkirk 32%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 51%.

Falkirk goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+9%9%6%2%7%3%7%9%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. L1–317 OctAberdeen (A)xG 1.03–2.83
  2. L0–510 OctHearts (A)xG 0.68–3.43
  3. L0–319 SepDundee United (H)xG 0.99–1.60
  4. L0–19 SepRangers (A)xG 1.26–2.49
  5. L1–25 SepCeltic (H)xG 1.95–3.19
  6. W1–02 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 0.85–0.41

Falkirk

  1. W2–117 OctHibernian (A)xG 0.74–1.35
  2. L1–210 OctDundee FC (H)xG 1.97–1.41
  3. D1–119 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.29–0.94
  4. W2–115 SepHearts (H)xG 2.14–1.79
  5. D1–15 SepDundee United (A)xG 1.27–2.66
  6. L1–22 SepRangers (H)xG 1.00–1.57

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenFalkirk
Position8th9th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠1–⁠52–⁠3–⁠4
Points10 (1.11 per game)9 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.090.98
Goals9–⁠179–⁠12
xG per game1.43–⁠2.011.12–⁠1.78
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.86–⁠2.100.75, 1.42–⁠1.58
Away: points, xG per game1.20, 1.08–⁠1.941.20, 0.88–⁠1.93
ManagerCraig McLeish (18)John McGlynn (47)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackSt. Mirren1.08, 11thFalkirk1.18, 7thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.49, 9thFalkirk1.44, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctSt. Mirren attack: 1.08Falkirk attack: 1.181.181.08FalkirkSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctSt. Mirren defence: 1.49Falkirk defence: 1.441.491.44

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenFalkirk
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−22%+1%−9%+29%
Counter-attacks+67%+29%−84%−28%
Set pieces−37%+16%−53%+32%
Penalties+14%+186%−43%−100%
Headers−54%−13%−61%−44%
Left side−17%average−48%+11%
Centre−10%−20%−34%+15%
Right side−17%+62%average+43%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdFalkirk concededLeft side−17%+43%Centre−10%+15%Right side−17%+11%Open play−22%+29%Counter-attacks+67%−28%Set pieces−37%+32%Headers−54%−44%

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−48%+62%Centre−34%−20%Right sideaverageaverageOpen play−9%+1%Counter-attacks−84%+29%Set pieces−53%+16%Headers−61%−13%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenFalkirk

1.43xG1.12
2.01xG against1.78
50%Possession46%
13.4Shots11.4
15.4Shots against16.0
3.9Shots on target3.3
2.1Big chances1.4
25.7Touches in the opposition box23.2
448Passes396
81%Pass accuracy76%
4.4Corners4.3
47%Field tilt49%
39.2Final-third entries38.5
14.2Box entries9.8
14.0Passes per defensive action12.6

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level291.612.69
Ahead281.401.23
Behind321.282.09

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level391.431.47
Ahead281.091.92
Behind240.652.12

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.372–4
16–300.240.211–2
31–450.240.314–2
46–600.150.600–4
61–750.340.181–2
76–900.370.341–3

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.153–3
16–300.080.410–2
31–450.260.363–1
46–600.110.211–1
61–750.210.312–0
76–900.290.340–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTChapman 9Ramsay 7Fraser 1Richardson 1Gogić 8Fraser 2Jackson 1Fieldson 7John 8Sule 1Carr 9Nsio 5Phillips 2Taylor 2Mochrie 4Ramos 2Kabia 1Phillips 2Taylor 2Nsio 1Kabia 4Nsio 1Thomas 1Agrafiotis 4Sule 2Phillips 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 9Strain 9Neilson 7Meļņiks 2Henderson 9McCann 7Tanser 2Barbrook 8McMillan 1Spencer 7Krauhaus 1Sibbald 1Ross 6Fodrey 1Doherty 1Krauhaus 7Yeats 2Eames 5Ross 2Fodrey 1Murrell 6Parkinson 2MacIver 14-2-3-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
1 August 2026Falkirk0–2St. MirrenxG 0.55–1.57
21 March 2026Falkirk1–2St. MirrenxG 1.43–0.90
10 January 2026St. Mirren0–2FalkirkxG 0.54–0.52
13 September 2025Falkirk1–2St. MirrenxG 0.70–1.57

4 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 3, Falkirk won 1, and 0 were drawn. Goals 6–4 and xG 1.15–0.80 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ramsay7565000.140.10
Kabia7550000.100.13
John8720100.070.13
Mochrie7474000.070.11

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Murrell6470400.600.03
Strain9810040.070.16
Barbrook8675000.110.09
Ross8647110.090.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.