Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

St. Mirren v Hibernian

Wednesday 28 October 2026, 19:45 · The Marbill Coaches Stadium · Round 11

Forecast

St. MirrenHibernian
Expected goals1.191.30
Win33%39%
Expected Points1.281.44
Clean sheet27%30%

St. Mirren 33%Draw 28%Hibernian 39%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 51%.

Hibernian goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+9%7%3%1%9%8%4%1%6%8%5%2%2%3%2%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. L1–317 OctAberdeen (A)xG 1.03–2.83
  2. L0–510 OctHearts (A)xG 0.68–3.43
  3. L0–319 SepDundee United (H)xG 0.99–1.60
  4. L0–19 SepRangers (A)xG 1.26–2.49
  5. L1–25 SepCeltic (H)xG 1.95–3.19
  6. W1–02 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 0.85–0.41

Hibernian

  1. L1–217 OctFalkirk (H)xG 1.35–0.74
  2. L0–110 OctDundee United (A)xG 0.77–1.68
  3. D1–119 SepAberdeen (H)xG 1.40–0.70
  4. L0–115 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.45–2.21
  5. L1–26 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.61–2.32
  6. L1–33 SepHearts (H)xG 1.47–0.86

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenHibernian
Position8th12th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠1–⁠52–⁠1–⁠6
Points10 (1.11 per game)7 (0.78 per game)
Expected Points per game1.091.38
Goals9–⁠179–⁠14
xG per game1.43–⁠2.011.56–⁠1.55
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.86–⁠2.100.20, 1.52–⁠1.34
Away: points, xG per game1.20, 1.08–⁠1.941.50, 1.60–⁠1.81
ManagerCraig McLeish (18)Marink Reedijk (2)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackSt. Mirren1.08, 11thHibernian1.32, 5thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.49, 9thHibernian1.28, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctSt. Mirren attack: 1.08Hibernian attack: 1.321.321.08HibernianSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctSt. Mirren defence: 1.49Hibernian defence: 1.281.491.28

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−22%+1%−15%−2%
Counter-attacks+67%+29%−22%−8%
Set pieces−37%+16%+5%−15%
Penalties+14%+186%+71%+14%
Headers−54%−13%−42%+2%
Left side−17%average−12%−3%
Centre−10%−20%−26%+6%
Right side−17%+62%+16%−28%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdHibernian concededLeft side−17%−28%Centre−10%+6%Right side−17%−3%Open play−22%−2%Counter-attacks+67%−8%Set pieces−37%−15%Headers−54%+2%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−12%+62%Centre−26%−20%Right side+16%averageOpen play−15%+1%Counter-attacks−22%+29%Set pieces+5%+16%Headers−42%−13%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenHibernian

1.43xG1.56
2.01xG against1.55
50%Possession53%
13.4Shots16.4
15.4Shots against13.0
3.9Shots on target4.2
2.1Big chances2.0
25.7Touches in the opposition box31.3
448Passes459
81%Pass accuracy81%
4.4Corners6.8
47%Field tilt55%
39.2Final-third entries44.7
14.2Box entries15.0
14.0Passes per defensive action14.7

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level291.612.69
Ahead281.401.23
Behind321.282.09

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level321.081.72
Ahead151.552.02
Behind431.911.25

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.372–4
16–300.240.211–2
31–450.240.314–2
46–600.150.600–4
61–750.340.181–2
76–900.370.341–3

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.091–2
16–300.180.202–2
31–450.280.411–6
46–600.290.282–0
61–750.280.162–1
76–900.370.401–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTChapman 9Ramsay 7Fraser 1Richardson 1Gogić 8Fraser 2Jackson 1Fieldson 7John 8Sule 1Carr 9Nsio 5Phillips 2Taylor 2Mochrie 4Ramos 2Kabia 1Phillips 2Taylor 2Nsio 1Kabia 4Nsio 1Thomas 1Agrafiotis 4Sule 2Phillips 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWSallinger 9Kerr 9Passlack 2O'Hora 2Hanley 4Ivezić 2Obita 4Iredale 2Abdulai 1Passlack 6Wright 1Megwa 1Mulligan 9Chaiwa 6Devaney 2Wright 1Mayor 6Wright 1Iredale 1Elding 3Boyle 3Šuto 1Lowe 4Boyle 2Šuto 2Klidje 4McGrath 2Boyle 13-4-3 in 3 of 9 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (3), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
14 February 2026Hibernian2–0St. MirrenxG 1.19–0.30
8 November 2025St. Mirren0–3HibernianxG 0.78–1.62
31 August 2025Hibernian1–1St. MirrenxG 2.42–0.85
14 May 2025St. Mirren2–2HibernianxG 0.70–1.34
16 February 2025St. Mirren0–0HibernianxG 0.70–0.37
9 November 2024Hibernian1–2St. MirrenxG 2.28–2.18

21 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 6, Hibernian won 9, and 6 were drawn. Goals 23–29 and xG 1.03–1.29 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ramsay7565000.140.10
Kabia7550000.100.13
John8720100.070.13
Mochrie7474000.070.11

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Boyle6505300.550.20
Passlack8734020.070.26
Mayor6539100.060.15
Mulligan9795010.130.08

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.