Forecasts

Updated 07:04, 20 Oct, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Team	Pts	Projected	Range	Title	Top six	11th	Bottom
Celtic	24	87	78–96	83%	>99%	–	–
Rangers	20	77	67–86	17%	>99%	–	–
Hearts	16	60	51–70	<1%	96%	<1%	<1%
Motherwell	8	48	40–57	<1%	49%	5%	3%
Hibernian	7	47	38–56	–	43%	7%	5%
Dundee United	12	47	38–55	–	41%	8%	5%
Dundee FC	14	46	38–55	–	45%	9%	6%
Aberdeen	11	45	36–54	–	38%	10%	8%
Falkirk	9	44	35–53	–	30%	12%	11%
St. Johnstone	12	43	33–52	–	25%	15%	18%
St. Mirren	10	42	34–51	–	21%	16%	17%
Kilmarnock	8	40	31–49	–	12%	18%	27%

Projected is the average final points total, and range where it ended up in 80% of simulations. The top six stay in the top half after the split. 11th goes into the play-off; bottom goes down. Click a club for its squad page.

Position probabilities

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Celtic	83%	16%	<1%	<1%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
Rangers	17%	76%	7%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	–	–	–	–	–
Hearts	<1%	7%	62%	17%	7%	3%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Motherwell	<1%	<1%	7%	16%	14%	12%	15%	11%	9%	7%	5%	3%
Hibernian	–	<1%	5%	13%	13%	11%	15%	12%	10%	8%	7%	5%
Dundee United	–	<1%	4%	12%	13%	12%	13%	13%	11%	9%	8%	5%
Dundee FC	–	<1%	4%	11%	14%	16%	9%	10%	11%	10%	9%	6%
Aberdeen	–	<1%	3%	10%	11%	13%	11%	11%	11%	11%	10%	8%
Falkirk	–	<1%	3%	8%	9%	10%	11%	12%	12%	12%	12%	11%
St. Johnstone	–	<1%	2%	6%	8%	9%	8%	10%	12%	13%	15%	18%
St. Mirren	–	–	1%	5%	6%	9%	8%	11%	13%	14%	16%	17%
Kilmarnock	–	–	1%	2%	4%	5%	7%	9%	12%	15%	18%	27%

Chance of the title

Chance of finishing bottom

As the forecast stood at the end of each matchday this season.

Next matches

Sat 24 Oct, 15:00

Dundee UnitedAberdeen

47%Draw 27%26%

Expected goals 1.5–1.1 · Match page
Sat 24 Oct, 15:00

FalkirkKilmarnock

49%Draw 26%25%

Expected goals 1.6–1.1 · Match page
Sat 24 Oct, 15:00

RangersSt. Johnstone

76%Draw 16%8%

Expected goals 2.5–0.7 · Match page
Sat 24 Oct, 15:00

St. MirrenDundee FC

43%Draw 28%29%

Expected goals 1.4–1.1 · Match page
Sun 25 Oct, 12:00

HibernianCeltic

20%Draw 24%57%

Expected goals 1.0–1.8 · Match page
Sun 25 Oct, 14:00

MotherwellHearts

36%Draw 27%36%

Expected goals 1.3–1.3 · Match page

Each team has two ratings, from the quality of chances it has created and allowed and from its Expected Points, starting from the value of its squad at the start of the season and leaning on recent matches more than older ones. The rest of the season is played out 10,000 times, with the split after round 33 decided by each simulated table. How the forecasts work. Ratings and the market shows what goes into each team's rating and how it compares with the betting market's.