Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

St. Mirren v Kilmarnock

Saturday 28 November 2026, 15:00 · The Marbill Coaches Stadium · Round 15

Forecast

St. MirrenKilmarnock
Expected goals1.511.15
Win45%28%
Expected Points1.611.12
Clean sheet32%22%

St. Mirren 45%Draw 27%Kilmarnock 28%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

Kilmarnock goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+8%7%5%2%7%3%8%5%2%4%5%3%1%2%2%1%10%13%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. L1–317 OctAberdeen (A)xG 1.03–2.83
  2. L0–510 OctHearts (A)xG 0.68–3.43
  3. L0–319 SepDundee United (H)xG 0.99–1.60
  4. L0–19 SepRangers (A)xG 1.26–2.49
  5. L1–25 SepCeltic (H)xG 1.95–3.19
  6. W1–02 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 0.85–0.41

Kilmarnock

  1. W3–217 OctMotherwell (H)xG 1.64–3.37
  2. L1–310 OctRangers (A)xG 1.15–1.42
  3. D1–119 SepHearts (H)xG 0.39–1.92
  4. W1–015 SepHibernian (A)xG 2.21–1.45
  5. D0–05 SepAberdeen (A)xG 1.11–1.08
  6. L0–12 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.41–0.85

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenKilmarnock
Position8th11th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠1–⁠52–⁠2–⁠5
Points10 (1.11 per game)8 (0.89 per game)
Expected Points per game1.090.77
Goals9–⁠1710–⁠20
xG per game1.43–⁠2.011.10–⁠2.34
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.86–⁠2.100.80, 0.91–⁠3.01
Away: points, xG per game1.20, 1.08–⁠1.941.00, 1.35–⁠1.49
ManagerCraig McLeish (18)Neil McCann (25)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackSt. Mirren1.08, 11thKilmarnock1.17, 8thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.49, 9thKilmarnock1.62, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctSt. Mirren attack: 1.08Kilmarnock attack: 1.171.171.08KilmarnockSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctSt. Mirren defence: 1.49Kilmarnock defence: 1.621.621.49

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−22%+1%−15%+53%
Counter-attacks+67%+29%−69%+102%
Set pieces−37%+16%−25%+31%
Penalties+14%+186%−100%−43%
Headers−54%−13%−44%+116%
Left side−17%average−14%+49%
Centre−10%−20%−33%+101%
Right side−17%+62%−20%−15%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−17%−15%Centre−10%+101%Right side−17%+49%Open play−22%+53%Counter-attacks+67%+102%Set pieces−37%+31%Headers−54%+116%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−14%+62%Centre−33%−20%Right side−20%averageOpen play−15%+1%Counter-attacks−69%+29%Set pieces−25%+16%Headers−44%−13%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenKilmarnock

1.43xG1.10
2.01xG against2.34
50%Possession43%
13.4Shots10.9
15.4Shots against18.2
3.9Shots on target4.2
2.1Big chances2.0
25.7Touches in the opposition box21.6
448Passes393
81%Pass accuracy77%
4.4Corners4.7
47%Field tilt39%
39.2Final-third entries36.9
14.2Box entries10.5
14.0Passes per defensive action16.5

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level291.612.69
Ahead281.401.23
Behind321.282.09

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level311.082.19
Ahead191.332.28
Behind401.022.47

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.372–4
16–300.240.211–2
31–450.240.314–2
46–600.150.600–4
61–750.340.181–2
76–900.370.341–3

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.281–4
16–300.090.501–3
31–450.180.412–5
46–600.240.424–3
61–750.200.251–2
76–900.200.471–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTChapman 9Ramsay 7Fraser 1Richardson 1Gogić 8Fraser 2Jackson 1Fieldson 7John 8Sule 1Carr 9Nsio 5Phillips 2Taylor 2Mochrie 4Ramos 2Kabia 1Phillips 2Taylor 2Nsio 1Kabia 4Nsio 1Thomas 1Agrafiotis 4Sule 2Phillips 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTStryjek 6Ferrie 3Ring 3Brandon 3Kamara 2McCarthy 6Schilte-Brown 1Stanger 8Yfeko 2Deas 1Schjønning-L… 9Schjønning-LarsenTshibola 4O'Hara 2Lowery 8Rice 3Ring 1Ring 4Kiltie 2McCarthy 1John-Jules 4Kiltie 3Lowery 1Hugill 4Kiltie 4Cleșcenco 1Hugill 4John-Jules 4Daniëls 14-2-3-1 in 2 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
2 September 2026Kilmarnock0–1St. MirrenxG 0.41–0.85
9 May 2026St. Mirren0–3KilmarnockxG 1.21–1.49
11 February 2026Kilmarnock4–3St. MirrenxG 2.76–1.96
27 December 2025St. Mirren0–0KilmarnockxG 1.36–0.75
4 October 2025Kilmarnock2–0St. MirrenxG 2.15–0.43
29 March 2025St. Mirren5–1KilmarnockxG 1.74–1.29

19 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 3, Kilmarnock won 9, and 7 were drawn. Goals 20–29 and xG 0.92–1.31 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ramsay7565000.140.10
Kabia7550000.100.13
John8720100.070.13
Mochrie7474000.070.11

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kiltie9776300.350.18
John-Jules8560100.250.12
Hugill9810110.240.04
Ring8623000.070.18

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.