Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Falkirk v Motherwell

Wednesday 2 December 2026, 19:45 · The Falkirk Stadium · Round 16

Forecast

FalkirkMotherwell
Expected goals1.341.28
Win38%35%
Expected Points1.401.32
Clean sheet28%26%

Falkirk 38%Draw 28%Motherwell 35%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

Motherwell goalsFalkirk goals0123456+0123456+8%9%6%3%9%8%3%1%7%8%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Falkirk

  1. W2–117 OctHibernian (A)xG 0.74–1.35
  2. L1–210 OctDundee FC (H)xG 1.97–1.41
  3. D1–119 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.29–0.94
  4. W2–115 SepHearts (H)xG 2.14–1.79
  5. D1–15 SepDundee United (A)xG 1.27–2.66
  6. L1–22 SepRangers (H)xG 1.00–1.57

Motherwell

  1. L2–317 OctKilmarnock (A)xG 3.37–1.64
  2. L0–211 OctCeltic (H)xG 1.10–2.85
  3. L1–219 SepDundee FC (A)xG 1.10–1.38
  4. L0–415 SepAberdeen (H)xG 0.85–0.90
  5. L0–15 SepRangers (A)xG 0.70–4.29
  6. W3–02 SepDundee United (H)xG 2.39–0.16

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

FalkirkMotherwell
Position9th10th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠3–⁠42–⁠2–⁠5
Points9 (1.00 per game)8 (0.89 per game)
Expected Points per game0.981.40
Goals9–⁠1211–⁠16
xG per game1.12–⁠1.781.71–⁠1.85
Home: points, xG per game0.75, 1.42–⁠1.581.00, 1.40–⁠1.11
Away: points, xG per game1.20, 0.88–⁠1.930.80, 1.96–⁠2.43
ManagerJohn McGlynn (47)Alfred Johansson (9)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackFalkirk1.18, 7thMotherwell1.33, 4thDefence (lower is better)Falkirk1.44, 8thMotherwell1.32, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctFalkirk attack: 1.18Motherwell attack: 1.331.331.18MotherwellFalkirkDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctFalkirk defence: 1.44Motherwell defence: 1.321.441.32

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

FalkirkMotherwell
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−9%+29%+23%+3%
Counter-attacks−84%−28%+12%+74%
Set pieces−53%+32%−48%−11%
Penalties−43%−100%+14%+71%
Headers−61%−44%−41%−13%
Left side−48%+11%−39%−14%
Centre−34%+15%+9%+1%
Right sideaverage+43%+49%+40%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdMotherwell concededLeft side−48%+40%Centre−34%+1%Right sideaverage−14%Open play−9%+3%Counter-attacks−84%+74%Set pieces−53%−11%Headers−61%−13%

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdFalkirk concededLeft side−39%+43%Centre+9%+15%Right side+49%+11%Open play+23%+29%Counter-attacks+12%−28%Set pieces−48%+32%Headers−41%−44%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

FalkirkMotherwell

1.12xG1.71
1.78xG against1.85
46%Possession57%
11.4Shots14.2
16.0Shots against16.3
3.3Shots on target4.7
1.4Big chances2.6
23.2Touches in the opposition box24.9
396Passes561
76%Pass accuracy87%
4.3Corners4.9
49%Field tilt59%
38.5Final-third entries50.8
9.8Box entries14.1
12.6Passes per defensive action14.8

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level391.431.47
Ahead281.091.92
Behind240.652.12

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level352.001.50
Ahead152.331.42
Behind401.232.32

xG by period

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.153–3
16–300.080.410–2
31–450.260.363–1
46–600.110.211–1
61–750.210.312–0
76–900.290.340–5

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.211–3
16–300.420.303–1
31–450.280.252–5
46–600.270.441–4
61–750.240.292–1
76–900.200.362–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 9Strain 9Neilson 7Meļņiks 2Henderson 9McCann 7Tanser 2Barbrook 8McMillan 1Spencer 7Krauhaus 1Sibbald 1Ross 6Fodrey 1Doherty 1Krauhaus 7Yeats 2Eames 5Ross 2Fodrey 1Murrell 6Parkinson 2MacIver 14-2-3-1 in every start

Motherwell

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTPaulsen 9Sparrow 9Girdwood-Rei… 4Girdwood-ReichKnight-Lebel 3O'Donnell 2Moormann 9Longelo 8Williams 1Fadinger 9Priestman 2Hodge 6Levitt 1Maswanhise 5Vogt 3Kanga 1Lowry 5Charles-Cook 3Booth 1Said 5Longelo 1Houlden 1Houlden 3Maswanhise 2Said 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (2), 4-2-2-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
9 August 2026Motherwell0–0FalkirkxG 1.27–0.55
2 May 2026Falkirk1–0MotherwellxG 2.42–1.33
4 April 2026Motherwell2–3FalkirkxG 1.46–2.06
3 December 2025Falkirk0–0MotherwellxG 0.57–0.47
18 October 2025Motherwell1–2FalkirkxG 1.01–1.35

5 league meetings since 2020/21: Falkirk won 3, Motherwell won 0, and 2 were drawn. Goals 6–3 and xG 1.39–1.11 per game.

Key players

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Murrell6470400.600.03
Strain9810040.070.16
Barbrook8675000.110.09
Ross8647110.090.10

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Maswanhise7581120.530.15
Lowry7602310.300.23
Longelo9746000.070.28
Said6533100.160.18

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.