Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Aberdeen v Falkirk

Wednesday 28 October 2026, 19:45 · Pittodrie Stadium · Round 11

Forecast

AberdeenFalkirk
Expected goals1.431.12
Win43%29%
Expected Points1.581.15
Clean sheet33%24%

Aberdeen 43%Draw 28%Falkirk 29%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 52%.

Falkirk goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+8%8%5%2%7%3%8%9%5%2%4%4%2%1%2%11%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Aberdeen

  1. W3–117 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.83–1.03
  2. L0–111 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.23–1.10
  3. D1–119 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.70–1.40
  4. W4–015 SepMotherwell (A)xG 0.90–0.85
  5. D0–05 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.08–1.11
  6. L0–32 SepCeltic (A)xG 0.68–2.67

Falkirk

  1. W2–117 OctHibernian (A)xG 0.74–1.35
  2. L1–210 OctDundee FC (H)xG 1.97–1.41
  3. D1–119 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.29–0.94
  4. W2–115 SepHearts (H)xG 2.14–1.79
  5. D1–15 SepDundee United (A)xG 1.27–2.66
  6. L1–22 SepRangers (H)xG 1.00–1.57

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

AberdeenFalkirk
Position7th9th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠2–⁠42–⁠3–⁠4
Points11 (1.22 per game)9 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.150.98
Goals10–⁠109–⁠12
xG per game1.24–⁠1.551.12–⁠1.78
Home: points, xG per game1.40, 1.63–⁠1.430.75, 1.42–⁠1.58
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 0.75–⁠1.691.20, 0.88–⁠1.93
ManagerStephen Robinson (18)John McGlynn (47)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackAberdeen1.15, 9thFalkirk1.18, 7thDefence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.44, 7thFalkirk1.44, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctAberdeen attack: 1.15Falkirk attack: 1.181.181.15FalkirkAberdeenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctAberdeen defence: 1.44Falkirk defence: 1.441.441.44

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

AberdeenFalkirk
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−43%−16%−9%+29%
Counter-attacks−68%+11%−84%−28%
Set pieces+42%−14%−53%+32%
Penalties+14%+71%−43%−100%
Headers+49%−31%−61%−44%
Left side−57%+2%−48%+11%
Centre−18%−39%−34%+15%
Right side−10%+19%average+43%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdFalkirk concededLeft side−57%+43%Centre−18%+15%Right side−10%+11%Open play−43%+29%Counter-attacks−68%−28%Set pieces+42%+32%Headers+49%−44%

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdAberdeen concededLeft side−48%+19%Centre−34%−39%Right sideaverage+2%Open play−9%−16%Counter-attacks−84%+11%Set pieces−53%−14%Headers−61%−31%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

AberdeenFalkirk

1.24xG1.12
1.55xG against1.78
46%Possession46%
12.1Shots11.4
15.6Shots against16.0
3.3Shots on target3.3
1.8Big chances1.4
21.9Touches in the opposition box23.2
385Passes396
77%Pass accuracy76%
5.7Corners4.3
42%Field tilt49%
38.6Final-third entries38.5
12.5Box entries9.8
14.0Passes per defensive action12.6

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level371.391.54
Ahead191.071.41
Behind341.171.64

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level391.431.47
Ahead281.091.92
Behind240.652.12

xG by period

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.030.191–3
16–300.110.261–0
31–450.120.371–4
46–600.300.152–1
61–750.150.311–2
76–900.520.264–0

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.153–3
16–300.080.410–2
31–450.260.363–1
46–600.110.211–1
61–750.210.312–0
76–900.290.340–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Aberdeen

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTMüller 9Cadden 8Lyons 1Mayo 7Milne 2Knoester 5Guinness… 1Guinness-WalkerOlusanya 1Molloy 4Happe 4Guinness… 8Guinness-WalkerCadden 1Ronan 5Olusanya 2Lyons 2Aremu 8Briedl 2Marshall 3Smith 2Yogane 1Olusanya 3Mouloua 2Ntelo 1Nisbet 9Yogane 35-3-2 in 3 of 9 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (3), 4-1-3-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 9Strain 9Neilson 7Meļņiks 2Henderson 9McCann 7Tanser 2Barbrook 8McMillan 1Spencer 7Krauhaus 1Sibbald 1Ross 6Fodrey 1Doherty 1Krauhaus 7Yeats 2Eames 5Ross 2Fodrey 1Murrell 6Parkinson 2MacIver 14-2-3-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
14 March 2026Aberdeen1–1FalkirkxG 1.54–0.76
3 January 2026Falkirk1–0AberdeenxG 1.53–0.57
31 August 2025Aberdeen0–1FalkirkxG 0.96–1.26

3 league meetings since 2020/21: Aberdeen won 0, Falkirk won 2, and 1 was a draw. Goals 1–3 and xG 1.02–1.18 per game.

Key players

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nisbet9722510.590.03
Armstrong3456000.030.23
Mayo7561010.220.00
Olusanya6572000.100.05

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Murrell6470400.600.03
Strain9810040.070.16
Barbrook8675000.110.09
Ross8647110.090.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.