Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Hearts v Falkirk

Sunday 8 November 2026, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 13

Forecast

HeartsFalkirk
Expected goals1.890.90
Win60%17%
Expected Points2.030.74
Clean sheet41%15%

Hearts 60%Draw 23%Falkirk 17%

Most likely score 1–0, 11%. Both sides score 51%.

Falkirk goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+7%5%2%5%1%4%1%7%6%3%3%3%1%1%1%11%11%11%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Hearts

  1. L1–718 OctCeltic (A)xG 1.20–4.23
  2. W5–010 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.43–0.68
  3. D1–119 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 1.92–0.39
  4. L1–215 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.79–2.14
  5. W2–16 SepDundee FC (H)xG 1.93–0.42
  6. W3–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.86–1.47

Falkirk

  1. W2–117 OctHibernian (A)xG 0.74–1.35
  2. L1–210 OctDundee FC (H)xG 1.97–1.41
  3. D1–119 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.29–0.94
  4. W2–115 SepHearts (H)xG 2.14–1.79
  5. D1–15 SepDundee United (A)xG 1.27–2.66
  6. L1–22 SepRangers (H)xG 1.00–1.57

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsFalkirk
Position3rd9th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠1–⁠32–⁠3–⁠4
Points16 (1.78 per game)9 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.700.98
Goals20–⁠159–⁠12
xG per game1.93–⁠1.541.12–⁠1.78
Home: points, xG per game3.00, 2.44–⁠0.740.75, 1.42–⁠1.58
Away: points, xG per game0.80, 1.52–⁠2.181.20, 0.88–⁠1.93
ManagerWouter Vrancken (9)John McGlynn (47)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackHearts1.52, 3rdFalkirk1.18, 7thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.16, 3rdFalkirk1.44, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHearts attack: 1.52Falkirk attack: 1.181.521.18FalkirkHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHearts defence: 1.16Falkirk defence: 1.441.441.16

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsFalkirk
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+6%average−9%+29%
Counter-attacks−20%−10%−84%−28%
Set pieces+32%+4%−53%+32%
Penalties+129%−43%−43%−100%
Headers−14%+40%−61%−44%
Left side+41%+6%−48%+11%
Centre+13%+15%−34%+15%
Right side−35%−30%average+43%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdFalkirk concededLeft side+41%+43%Centre+13%+15%Right side−35%+11%Open play+6%+29%Counter-attacks−20%−28%Set pieces+32%+32%Headers−14%−44%

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdHearts concededLeft side−48%−30%Centre−34%+15%Right sideaverage+6%Open play−9%averageCounter-attacks−84%−10%Set pieces−53%+4%Headers−61%+40%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsFalkirk

1.93xG1.12
1.54xG against1.78
54%Possession46%
17.1Shots11.4
10.4Shots against16.0
5.3Shots on target3.3
2.6Big chances1.4
29.7Touches in the opposition box23.2
455Passes396
80%Pass accuracy76%
6.9Corners4.3
59%Field tilt49%
38.2Final-third entries38.5
16.5Box entries9.8
12.1Passes per defensive action12.6

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level211.751.55
Ahead412.011.30
Behind281.951.87

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level391.431.47
Ahead281.091.92
Behind240.652.12

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.164–3
16–300.250.102–2
31–450.510.355–3
46–600.340.283–3
61–750.200.132–1
76–900.330.514–3

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.153–3
16–300.080.410–2
31–450.260.363–1
46–600.110.211–1
61–750.210.312–0
76–900.290.340–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTReus 9Altena 8Borchgrevink 1McCart 5McEntee 4Fagan-Walcott 2Findlay 6Milne 1McCart 2Kingsley 2Milne 2Magnússon 3McEntee 2Ageu 1Mendy 7Spittal 3Renaud 1Miller 6Kerjota 3Braga 7Guendouz 1Ba-Sy 1McPake 8Miller 1Wilson 6Braga 2Ba-Sy 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 9Strain 9Neilson 7Meļņiks 2Henderson 9McCann 7Tanser 2Barbrook 8McMillan 1Spencer 7Krauhaus 1Sibbald 1Ross 6Fodrey 1Doherty 1Krauhaus 7Yeats 2Eames 5Ross 2Fodrey 1Murrell 6Parkinson 2MacIver 14-2-3-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
15 September 2026Falkirk2–1HeartsxG 2.14–1.79
13 May 2026Hearts3–0FalkirkxG 0.56–0.28
21 February 2026Hearts1–0FalkirkxG 1.10–0.74
13 December 2025Falkirk0–2HeartsxG 1.03–1.51
27 September 2025Hearts3–0FalkirkxG 1.94–0.67

5 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 4, Falkirk won 1, and 0 were drawn. Goals 10–2 and xG 1.38–0.97 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miller8589310.460.13
Braga9726320.470.10
McPake8610350.210.23
Mendy8672300.180.07

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Murrell6470400.600.03
Strain9810040.070.16
Barbrook8675000.110.09
Ross8647110.090.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.