Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Falkirk v Kilmarnock

Saturday 20 March 2027, 15:00 · The Falkirk Stadium · Round 31

Forecast

FalkirkKilmarnock
Expected goals1.641.12
Win49%25%
Expected Points1.731.02
Clean sheet33%19%

Falkirk 49%Draw 26%Kilmarnock 25%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 55%.

Kilmarnock goalsFalkirk goals0123456+0123456+7%7%4%1%7%2%9%5%2%5%5%3%1%2%2%1%10%12%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Falkirk

  1. W2–117 OctHibernian (A)xG 0.74–1.35
  2. L1–210 OctDundee FC (H)xG 1.97–1.41
  3. D1–119 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.29–0.94
  4. W2–115 SepHearts (H)xG 2.14–1.79
  5. D1–15 SepDundee United (A)xG 1.27–2.66
  6. L1–22 SepRangers (H)xG 1.00–1.57

Kilmarnock

  1. W3–217 OctMotherwell (H)xG 1.64–3.37
  2. L1–310 OctRangers (A)xG 1.15–1.42
  3. D1–119 SepHearts (H)xG 0.39–1.92
  4. W1–015 SepHibernian (A)xG 2.21–1.45
  5. D0–05 SepAberdeen (A)xG 1.11–1.08
  6. L0–12 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.41–0.85

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

FalkirkKilmarnock
Position9th11th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠3–⁠42–⁠2–⁠5
Points9 (1.00 per game)8 (0.89 per game)
Expected Points per game0.980.77
Goals9–⁠1210–⁠20
xG per game1.12–⁠1.781.10–⁠2.34
Home: points, xG per game0.75, 1.42–⁠1.580.80, 0.91–⁠3.01
Away: points, xG per game1.20, 0.88–⁠1.931.00, 1.35–⁠1.49
ManagerJohn McGlynn (47)Neil McCann (25)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackFalkirk1.18, 7thKilmarnock1.17, 8thDefence (lower is better)Falkirk1.44, 8thKilmarnock1.62, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctFalkirk attack: 1.18Kilmarnock attack: 1.171.181.17KilmarnockFalkirkDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctFalkirk defence: 1.44Kilmarnock defence: 1.621.621.44

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

FalkirkKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−9%+29%−15%+53%
Counter-attacks−84%−28%−69%+102%
Set pieces−53%+32%−25%+31%
Penalties−43%−100%−100%−43%
Headers−61%−44%−44%+116%
Left side−48%+11%−14%+49%
Centre−34%+15%−33%+101%
Right sideaverage+43%−20%−15%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−48%−15%Centre−34%+101%Right sideaverage+49%Open play−9%+53%Counter-attacks−84%+102%Set pieces−53%+31%Headers−61%+116%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdFalkirk concededLeft side−14%+43%Centre−33%+15%Right side−20%+11%Open play−15%+29%Counter-attacks−69%−28%Set pieces−25%+32%Headers−44%−44%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

FalkirkKilmarnock

1.12xG1.10
1.78xG against2.34
46%Possession43%
11.4Shots10.9
16.0Shots against18.2
3.3Shots on target4.2
1.4Big chances2.0
23.2Touches in the opposition box21.6
396Passes393
76%Pass accuracy77%
4.3Corners4.7
49%Field tilt39%
38.5Final-third entries36.9
9.8Box entries10.5
12.6Passes per defensive action16.5

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level391.431.47
Ahead281.091.92
Behind240.652.12

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level311.082.19
Ahead191.332.28
Behind401.022.47

xG by period

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.153–3
16–300.080.410–2
31–450.260.363–1
46–600.110.211–1
61–750.210.312–0
76–900.290.340–5

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.281–4
16–300.090.501–3
31–450.180.412–5
46–600.240.424–3
61–750.200.251–2
76–900.200.471–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 9Strain 9Neilson 7Meļņiks 2Henderson 9McCann 7Tanser 2Barbrook 8McMillan 1Spencer 7Krauhaus 1Sibbald 1Ross 6Fodrey 1Doherty 1Krauhaus 7Yeats 2Eames 5Ross 2Fodrey 1Murrell 6Parkinson 2MacIver 14-2-3-1 in every start

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTStryjek 6Ferrie 3Ring 3Brandon 3Kamara 2McCarthy 6Schilte-Brown 1Stanger 8Yfeko 2Deas 1Schjønning-L… 9Schjønning-LarsenTshibola 4O'Hara 2Lowery 8Rice 3Ring 1Ring 4Kiltie 2McCarthy 1John-Jules 4Kiltie 3Lowery 1Hugill 4Kiltie 4Cleșcenco 1Hugill 4John-Jules 4Daniëls 14-2-3-1 in 2 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
28 February 2026Falkirk5–1KilmarnockxG 3.14–0.39
20 December 2025Kilmarnock0–1FalkirkxG 1.19–1.46
1 November 2025Falkirk3–1KilmarnockxG 2.08–0.43

3 league meetings since 2020/21: Falkirk won 3, Kilmarnock won 0, and 0 were drawn. Goals 9–2 and xG 2.23–0.67 per game.

Key players

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Murrell6470400.600.03
Strain9810040.070.16
Barbrook8675000.110.09
Ross8647110.090.10

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kiltie9776300.350.18
John-Jules8560100.250.12
Hugill9810110.240.04
Ring8623000.070.18

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.