Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Dundee FC v Kilmarnock

Wednesday 28 October 2026, 19:45 · Dens Park · Round 11

Forecast

Dundee FCKilmarnock
Expected goals1.581.19
Win46%28%
Expected Points1.641.10
Clean sheet30%21%

Dundee FC 46%Draw 26%Kilmarnock 28%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 56%.

Kilmarnock goalsDundee FC goals0123456+0123456+7%7%4%2%7%3%8%6%2%4%5%3%1%2%2%1%9%12%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Dundee FC

  1. D2–217 OctRangers (H)xG 1.77–1.80
  2. W2–110 OctFalkirk (A)xG 1.41–1.97
  3. W2–119 SepMotherwell (H)xG 1.38–1.10
  4. L1–26 SepHearts (A)xG 0.42–1.93
  5. D1–12 SepSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.07–1.08
  6. L1–230 AugHibernian (H)xG 1.03–2.33

Kilmarnock

  1. W3–217 OctMotherwell (H)xG 1.64–3.37
  2. L1–310 OctRangers (A)xG 1.15–1.42
  3. D1–119 SepHearts (H)xG 0.39–1.92
  4. W1–015 SepHibernian (A)xG 2.21–1.45
  5. D0–05 SepAberdeen (A)xG 1.11–1.08
  6. L0–12 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.41–0.85

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Dundee FCKilmarnock
Position4th11th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠2–⁠32–⁠2–⁠5
Points14 (1.56 per game)8 (0.89 per game)
Expected Points per game1.210.77
Goals13–⁠1010–⁠20
xG per game1.31–⁠1.601.10–⁠2.34
Home: points, xG per game1.60, 1.62–⁠1.410.80, 0.91–⁠3.01
Away: points, xG per game1.50, 0.94–⁠1.841.00, 1.35–⁠1.49
ManagerSteven Pressley (47)Neil McCann (25)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackDundee FC1.13, 10thKilmarnock1.17, 8thDefence (lower is better)Dundee FC1.53, 11thKilmarnock1.62, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctDundee FC attack: 1.13Kilmarnock attack: 1.171.171.13KilmarnockDundee FCDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctDundee FC defence: 1.53Kilmarnock defence: 1.621.621.53

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Dundee FCKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−30%+16%−15%+53%
Counter-attacks−25%−63%−69%+102%
Set pieces+28%−19%−25%+31%
Penalties−43%+14%−100%−43%
Headers+39%+3%−44%+116%
Left side+14%+18%−14%+49%
Centre−22%−25%−33%+101%
Right side−37%+15%−20%−15%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Dundee FC attacking

Dundee FC createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+14%−15%Centre−22%+101%Right side−37%+49%Open play−30%+53%Counter-attacks−25%+102%Set pieces+28%+31%Headers+39%+116%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdDundee FC concededLeft side−14%+15%Centre−33%−25%Right side−20%+18%Open play−15%+16%Counter-attacks−69%−63%Set pieces−25%−19%Headers−44%+3%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Dundee FCKilmarnock

1.31xG1.10
1.60xG against2.34
38%Possession43%
12.3Shots10.9
19.1Shots against18.2
4.7Shots on target4.2
2.7Big chances2.0
19.1Touches in the opposition box21.6
336Passes393
73%Pass accuracy77%
4.9Corners4.7
25%Field tilt39%
26.9Final-third entries36.9
9.5Box entries10.5
19.6Passes per defensive action16.5

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Dundee FC

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.451.49
Ahead301.211.70
Behind151.091.70

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level311.082.19
Ahead191.332.28
Behind401.022.47

xG by period

Dundee FC

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.070.151–0
16–300.330.162–1
31–450.200.363–3
46–600.200.173–2
61–750.190.361–1
76–900.330.403–3

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.281–4
16–300.090.501–3
31–450.180.412–5
46–600.240.424–3
61–750.200.251–2
76–900.200.471–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Dundee FC

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTGoodman 9D. Wright 8Halliday 1Astley 9O. Bevan 9Odutayo 5Samuels 4J. Bevan 7Forrest 1Robertson 1Finnigan 6Jones 3Hamilton 9Forrest 4Reilly 4Moorhouse 1Fink 5Hay 2Forrest 1Westley 7Murray 24-4-2 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (6), 4-2-3-1 (3)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTStryjek 6Ferrie 3Ring 3Brandon 3Kamara 2McCarthy 6Schilte-Brown 1Stanger 8Yfeko 2Deas 1Schjønning-L… 9Schjønning-LarsenTshibola 4O'Hara 2Lowery 8Rice 3Ring 1Ring 4Kiltie 2McCarthy 1John-Jules 4Kiltie 3Lowery 1Hugill 4Kiltie 4Cleșcenco 1Hugill 4John-Jules 4Daniëls 14-2-3-1 in 2 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
12 May 2026Kilmarnock3–1Dundee FCxG 3.48–0.43
11 April 2026Kilmarnock2–2Dundee FCxG 1.63–1.32
30 December 2025Dundee FC2–1KilmarnockxG 2.23–1.27
23 August 2025Kilmarnock0–0Dundee FCxG 1.11–0.26
10 May 2025Kilmarnock3–2Dundee FCxG 3.50–0.99
30 November 2024Kilmarnock1–1Dundee FCxG 1.28–0.75

12 league meetings since 2020/21: Dundee FC won 2, Kilmarnock won 3, and 7 were drawn. Goals 20–22 and xG 1.12–1.91 per game.

Key players

Dundee FC

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Westley7537300.570.04
Forrest6531010.080.11
J. Bevan7587110.120.05
D. Wright8727110.020.12

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kiltie9776300.350.18
John-Jules8560100.250.12
Hugill9810110.240.04
Ring8623000.070.18

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.