Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Celtic v Kilmarnock

Sunday 8 November 2026, 16:00 · Celtic Park · Round 13

Forecast

CelticKilmarnock
Expected goals3.020.68
Win84%5%
Expected Points2.620.27
Clean sheet51%5%

Celtic 84%Draw 11%Kilmarnock 5%

Most likely score 3–0, 11%. Both sides score 47%.

Kilmarnock goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+3%1%7%5%2%8%3%8%3%6%2%5%4%1%4%3%1%11%11%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Celtic

  1. W7–118 OctHearts (H)xG 4.23–1.20
  2. W2–011 OctMotherwell (A)xG 2.85–1.10
  3. L0–120 SepRangers (H)xG 0.39–1.81
  4. W1–09 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.80–0.69
  5. W2–15 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 3.19–1.95
  6. W3–02 SepAberdeen (H)xG 2.67–0.68

Kilmarnock

  1. W3–217 OctMotherwell (H)xG 1.64–3.37
  2. L1–310 OctRangers (A)xG 1.15–1.42
  3. D1–119 SepHearts (H)xG 0.39–1.92
  4. W1–015 SepHibernian (A)xG 2.21–1.45
  5. D0–05 SepAberdeen (A)xG 1.11–1.08
  6. L0–12 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.41–0.85

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

CelticKilmarnock
Position1st11th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost8–⁠0–⁠12–⁠2–⁠5
Points24 (2.67 per game)8 (0.89 per game)
Expected Points per game2.310.77
Goals23–⁠510–⁠20
xG per game2.93–⁠1.051.10–⁠2.34
Home: points, xG per game2.40, 2.60–⁠0.950.80, 0.91–⁠3.01
Away: points, xG per game3.00, 3.33–⁠1.181.00, 1.35–⁠1.49
ManagerMartin O'Neill (27)Neil McCann (25)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackCeltic2.17, 1stKilmarnock1.17, 8thDefence (lower is better)Celtic0.88, 1stKilmarnock1.62, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctCeltic attack: 2.17Kilmarnock attack: 1.172.171.17KilmarnockCelticDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctCeltic defence: 0.88Kilmarnock defence: 1.621.620.88

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

CelticKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+121%−48%−15%+53%
Counter-attacks+195%−35%−69%+102%
Set pieces−8%+5%−25%+31%
Penalties−100%−43%−100%−43%
Headers+164%−27%−44%+116%
Left side+159%−62%−14%+49%
Centre+87%−13%−33%+101%
Right side+61%−42%−20%−15%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+159%−15%Centre+87%+101%Right side+61%+49%Open play+121%+53%Counter-attacks+195%+102%Set pieces−8%+31%Headers+164%+116%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdCeltic concededLeft side−14%−42%Centre−33%−13%Right side−20%−62%Open play−15%−48%Counter-attacks−69%−35%Set pieces−25%+5%Headers−44%−27%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticKilmarnock

2.93xG1.10
1.05xG against2.34
60%Possession43%
20.3Shots10.9
11.9Shots against18.2
9.2Shots on target4.2
5.2Big chances2.0
38.2Touches in the opposition box21.6
605Passes393
88%Pass accuracy77%
9.0Corners4.7
68%Field tilt39%
62.3Final-third entries36.9
24.5Box entries10.5
13.0Passes per defensive action16.5

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level242.231.23
Ahead573.340.98
Behind102.161.05

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level311.082.19
Ahead191.332.28
Behind401.022.47

xG by period

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.400.126–0
16–300.400.251–1
31–450.710.247–2
46–600.570.076–1
61–750.310.202–1
76–900.540.161–0

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.281–4
16–300.090.501–3
31–450.180.412–5
46–600.240.424–3
61–750.200.251–2
76–900.200.471–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTSinisalo 8Johnstone 1Donovan 6Johnston 2Carter-Vickers 1Carter-Vickers 5Murray 3Trusty 6Scales 4Tierney 6Scales 3McGregor 8Baur 6Oxlade-Chamberlain 2Engels 2Hassan 5Durán 3McCowan 1Nygren 7Donovan 1Sørensen 1Yang 5Tounekti 2Nygren 1Durán 5Høgh 44-2-3-1 in 7 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 3-4-3 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTStryjek 6Ferrie 3Ring 3Brandon 3Kamara 2McCarthy 6Schilte-Brown 1Stanger 8Yfeko 2Deas 1Schjønning-L… 9Schjønning-LarsenTshibola 4O'Hara 2Lowery 8Rice 3Ring 1Ring 4Kiltie 2McCarthy 1John-Jules 4Kiltie 3Lowery 1Hugill 4Kiltie 4Cleșcenco 1Hugill 4John-Jules 4Daniëls 14-2-3-1 in 2 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
9 August 2026Kilmarnock1–5CelticxG 0.98–5.50
15 February 2026Kilmarnock2–3CelticxG 0.86–2.98
9 November 2025Celtic4–0KilmarnockxG 2.85–0.38
14 September 2025Kilmarnock1–2CelticxG 1.66–2.83
12 April 2025Celtic5–1KilmarnockxG 1.81–0.29
10 November 2024Kilmarnock0–2CelticxG 2.22–2.12

17 league meetings since 2020/21: Celtic won 14, Kilmarnock won 1, and 2 were drawn. Goals 53–11 and xG 2.69–1.07 per game.

Key players

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nygren8654630.730.23
Durán8591550.560.33
Tierney6459130.310.44
Baur6550100.290.19

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kiltie9776300.350.18
John-Jules8560100.250.12
Hugill9810110.240.04
Ring8623000.070.18

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.