Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Celtic v Falkirk

Sunday 31 January 2027, 15:00 · Celtic Park · Round 25

Forecast

CelticFalkirk
Expected goals2.700.69
Win79%7%
Expected Points2.520.34
Clean sheet50%7%

Celtic 79%Draw 14%Falkirk 7%

Most likely score 2–0, 12%. Both sides score 47%.

Falkirk goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+4%2%9%7%2%8%3%8%3%7%5%2%4%3%1%3%2%12%11%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Celtic

  1. W7–118 OctHearts (H)xG 4.23–1.20
  2. W2–011 OctMotherwell (A)xG 2.85–1.10
  3. L0–120 SepRangers (H)xG 0.39–1.81
  4. W1–09 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.80–0.69
  5. W2–15 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 3.19–1.95
  6. W3–02 SepAberdeen (H)xG 2.67–0.68

Falkirk

  1. W2–117 OctHibernian (A)xG 0.74–1.35
  2. L1–210 OctDundee FC (H)xG 1.97–1.41
  3. D1–119 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.29–0.94
  4. W2–115 SepHearts (H)xG 2.14–1.79
  5. D1–15 SepDundee United (A)xG 1.27–2.66
  6. L1–22 SepRangers (H)xG 1.00–1.57

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

CelticFalkirk
Position1st9th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost8–⁠0–⁠12–⁠3–⁠4
Points24 (2.67 per game)9 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game2.310.98
Goals23–⁠59–⁠12
xG per game2.93–⁠1.051.12–⁠1.78
Home: points, xG per game2.40, 2.60–⁠0.950.75, 1.42–⁠1.58
Away: points, xG per game3.00, 3.33–⁠1.181.20, 0.88–⁠1.93
ManagerMartin O'Neill (27)John McGlynn (47)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackCeltic2.17, 1stFalkirk1.18, 7thDefence (lower is better)Celtic0.88, 1stFalkirk1.44, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctCeltic attack: 2.17Falkirk attack: 1.182.171.18FalkirkCelticDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctCeltic defence: 0.88Falkirk defence: 1.441.440.88

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

CelticFalkirk
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+121%−48%−9%+29%
Counter-attacks+195%−35%−84%−28%
Set pieces−8%+5%−53%+32%
Penalties−100%−43%−43%−100%
Headers+164%−27%−61%−44%
Left side+159%−62%−48%+11%
Centre+87%−13%−34%+15%
Right side+61%−42%average+43%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdFalkirk concededLeft side+159%+43%Centre+87%+15%Right side+61%+11%Open play+121%+29%Counter-attacks+195%−28%Set pieces−8%+32%Headers+164%−44%

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdCeltic concededLeft side−48%−42%Centre−34%−13%Right sideaverage−62%Open play−9%−48%Counter-attacks−84%−35%Set pieces−53%+5%Headers−61%−27%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticFalkirk

2.93xG1.12
1.05xG against1.78
60%Possession46%
20.3Shots11.4
11.9Shots against16.0
9.2Shots on target3.3
5.2Big chances1.4
38.2Touches in the opposition box23.2
605Passes396
88%Pass accuracy76%
9.0Corners4.3
68%Field tilt49%
62.3Final-third entries38.5
24.5Box entries9.8
13.0Passes per defensive action12.6

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level242.231.23
Ahead573.340.98
Behind102.161.05

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level391.431.47
Ahead281.091.92
Behind240.652.12

xG by period

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.400.126–0
16–300.400.251–1
31–450.710.247–2
46–600.570.076–1
61–750.310.202–1
76–900.540.161–0

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.153–3
16–300.080.410–2
31–450.260.363–1
46–600.110.211–1
61–750.210.312–0
76–900.290.340–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTSinisalo 8Johnstone 1Donovan 6Johnston 2Carter-Vickers 1Carter-Vickers 5Murray 3Trusty 6Scales 4Tierney 6Scales 3McGregor 8Baur 6Oxlade-Chamberlain 2Engels 2Hassan 5Durán 3McCowan 1Nygren 7Donovan 1Sørensen 1Yang 5Tounekti 2Nygren 1Durán 5Høgh 44-2-3-1 in 7 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 3-4-3 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 9Strain 9Neilson 7Meļņiks 2Henderson 9McCann 7Tanser 2Barbrook 8McMillan 1Spencer 7Krauhaus 1Sibbald 1Ross 6Fodrey 1Doherty 1Krauhaus 7Yeats 2Eames 5Ross 2Fodrey 1Murrell 6Parkinson 2MacIver 14-2-3-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
29 August 2026Celtic2–1FalkirkxG 3.45–0.57
25 April 2026Celtic3–1FalkirkxG 1.11–0.92
1 February 2026Celtic2–0FalkirkxG 0.66–1.07
14 January 2026Falkirk0–1CelticxG 1.72–0.62
29 October 2025Celtic4–0FalkirkxG 4.29–0.47

5 league meetings since 2020/21: Celtic won 5, Falkirk won 0, and 0 were drawn. Goals 12–2 and xG 2.03–0.95 per game.

Key players

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nygren8654630.730.23
Durán8591550.560.33
Tierney6459130.310.44
Baur6550100.290.19

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Murrell6470400.600.03
Strain9810040.070.16
Barbrook8675000.110.09
Ross8647110.090.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.