Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Celtic v Dundee United

Wednesday 28 October 2026, 19:45 · Celtic Park · Round 11

Forecast

CelticDundee United
Expected goals2.680.73
Win78%7%
Expected Points2.490.36
Clean sheet48%7%

Celtic 78%Draw 14%Dundee United 7%

Most likely score 2–0, 12%. Both sides score 49%.

Dundee United goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+4%2%7%2%3%8%3%7%5%2%4%3%1%3%2%9%12%9%11%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Celtic

  1. W7–118 OctHearts (H)xG 4.23–1.20
  2. W2–011 OctMotherwell (A)xG 2.85–1.10
  3. L0–120 SepRangers (H)xG 0.39–1.81
  4. W1–09 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.80–0.69
  5. W2–15 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 3.19–1.95
  6. W3–02 SepAberdeen (H)xG 2.67–0.68

Dundee United

  1. D1–117 OctSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.02–1.29
  2. W1–010 OctHibernian (H)xG 1.68–0.77
  3. W3–019 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.60–0.99
  4. D1–15 SepFalkirk (H)xG 2.66–1.27
  5. L0–32 SepMotherwell (A)xG 0.16–2.39
  6. W4–029 AugKilmarnock (A)xG 3.42–1.13

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

CelticDundee United
Position1st6th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost8–⁠0–⁠13–⁠3–⁠3
Points24 (2.67 per game)12 (1.33 per game)
Expected Points per game2.311.45
Goals23–⁠511–⁠12
xG per game2.93–⁠1.051.55–⁠1.44
Home: points, xG per game2.40, 2.60–⁠0.951.25, 1.79–⁠1.23
Away: points, xG per game3.00, 3.33–⁠1.181.40, 1.36–⁠1.60
ManagerMartin O'Neill (27)Jim Goodwin (97)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackCeltic2.17, 1stDundee United1.24, 6thDefence (lower is better)Celtic0.88, 1stDundee United1.43, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctCeltic attack: 2.17Dundee United attack: 1.242.171.24Dundee UnitedCelticDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctCeltic defence: 0.88Dundee United defence: 1.431.430.88

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

CelticDundee United
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+121%−48%−30%+6%
Counter-attacks+195%−35%+56%−64%
Set pieces−8%+5%+53%−13%
Penalties−100%−43%−43%−43%
Headers+164%−27%−5%−36%
Left side+159%−62%−26%+9%
Centre+87%−13%−2%−4%
Right side+61%−42%+34%−28%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdDundee United concededLeft side+159%−28%Centre+87%−4%Right side+61%+9%Open play+121%+6%Counter-attacks+195%−64%Set pieces−8%−13%Headers+164%−36%

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdCeltic concededLeft side−26%−42%Centre−2%−13%Right side+34%−62%Open play−30%−48%Counter-attacks+56%−35%Set pieces+53%+5%Headers−5%−27%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticDundee United

2.93xG1.55
1.05xG against1.44
60%Possession51%
20.3Shots15.9
11.9Shots against14.9
9.2Shots on target5.6
5.2Big chances2.2
38.2Touches in the opposition box30.0
605Passes421
88%Pass accuracy79%
9.0Corners6.3
68%Field tilt46%
62.3Final-third entries39.0
24.5Box entries14.0
13.0Passes per defensive action12.2

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level242.231.23
Ahead573.340.98
Behind102.161.05

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level251.891.30
Ahead261.741.14
Behind391.201.72

xG by period

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.400.126–0
16–300.400.251–1
31–450.710.247–2
46–600.570.076–1
61–750.310.202–1
76–900.540.161–0

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.240.343–3
16–300.140.210–2
31–450.440.215–1
46–600.190.300–3
61–750.240.210–3
76–900.310.163–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTSinisalo 8Johnstone 1Donovan 6Johnston 2Carter-Vickers 1Carter-Vickers 5Murray 3Trusty 6Scales 4Tierney 6Scales 3McGregor 8Baur 6Oxlade-Chamberlain 2Engels 2Hassan 5Durán 3McCowan 1Nygren 7Donovan 1Sørensen 1Yang 5Tounekti 2Nygren 1Durán 5Høgh 44-2-3-1 in 7 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 3-4-3 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

Dundee United

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWWalton 9Rawlins 8Yoro 1Esselink 9Forbes 9Ferry 5Ciubotaru 4Camará 4Sevelj 3Yoro 2Tait 7Agyei 4Cameron 4Iqbal 3Randall 4Merghem 4Bennie 1Metsoko 4Sapsford 3Rose 2Bennie 6Randall 2Sapsford 14-3-3 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
22 March 2026Dundee United2–0CelticxG 1.13–1.10
10 January 2026Celtic4–0Dundee UnitedxG 3.18–0.34
17 December 2025Dundee United2–1CelticxG 1.45–3.20
26 April 2025Dundee United0–5CelticxG 0.44–3.06
15 February 2025Celtic3–0Dundee UnitedxG 1.64–0.16
8 January 2025Celtic2–0Dundee UnitedxG 1.74–0.16

17 league meetings since 2020/21: Celtic won 11, Dundee United won 2, and 4 were drawn. Goals 40–8 and xG 2.65–0.57 per game.

Key players

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nygren8654630.730.23
Durán8591550.560.33
Tierney6459130.310.44
Baur6550100.290.19

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Randall6596230.310.33
Bennie7503110.440.09
Tait7673000.080.15
Forbes9810100.110.04

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.