Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Hearts v Celtic

Sunday 29 November 2026, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 15

Forecast

HeartsCeltic
Expected goals1.151.67
Win26%49%
Expected Points1.021.72
Clean sheet19%32%

Hearts 26%Draw 25%Celtic 49%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 56%.

Celtic goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+7%8%5%2%6%5%2%4%7%6%3%1%2%3%2%1%9%12%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Hearts

  1. L1–718 OctCeltic (A)xG 1.20–4.23
  2. W5–010 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.43–0.68
  3. D1–119 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 1.92–0.39
  4. L1–215 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.79–2.14
  5. W2–16 SepDundee FC (H)xG 1.93–0.42
  6. W3–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.86–1.47

Celtic

  1. W7–118 OctHearts (H)xG 4.23–1.20
  2. W2–011 OctMotherwell (A)xG 2.85–1.10
  3. L0–120 SepRangers (H)xG 0.39–1.81
  4. W1–09 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.80–0.69
  5. W2–15 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 3.19–1.95
  6. W3–02 SepAberdeen (H)xG 2.67–0.68

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsCeltic
Position3rd1st
Played99
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠1–⁠38–⁠0–⁠1
Points16 (1.78 per game)24 (2.67 per game)
Expected Points per game1.702.31
Goals20–⁠1523–⁠5
xG per game1.93–⁠1.542.93–⁠1.05
Home: points, xG per game3.00, 2.44–⁠0.742.40, 2.60–⁠0.95
Away: points, xG per game0.80, 1.52–⁠2.183.00, 3.33–⁠1.18
ManagerWouter Vrancken (9)Martin O'Neill (27)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackHearts1.52, 3rdCeltic2.17, 1stDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.16, 3rdCeltic0.88, 1st

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctHearts attack: 1.52Celtic attack: 2.172.171.52CelticHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctHearts defence: 1.16Celtic defence: 0.881.160.88

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+6%average+121%−48%
Counter-attacks−20%−10%+195%−35%
Set pieces+32%+4%−8%+5%
Penalties+129%−43%−100%−43%
Headers−14%+40%+164%−27%
Left side+41%+6%+159%−62%
Centre+13%+15%+87%−13%
Right side−35%−30%+61%−42%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdCeltic concededLeft side+41%−42%Centre+13%−13%Right side−35%−62%Open play+6%−48%Counter-attacks−20%−35%Set pieces+32%+5%Headers−14%−27%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdHearts concededLeft side+159%−30%Centre+87%+15%Right side+61%+6%Open play+121%averageCounter-attacks+195%−10%Set pieces−8%+4%Headers+164%+40%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsCeltic

1.93xG2.93
1.54xG against1.05
54%Possession60%
17.1Shots20.3
10.4Shots against11.9
5.3Shots on target9.2
2.6Big chances5.2
29.7Touches in the opposition box38.2
455Passes605
80%Pass accuracy88%
6.9Corners9.0
59%Field tilt68%
38.2Final-third entries62.3
16.5Box entries24.5
12.1Passes per defensive action13.0

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level211.751.55
Ahead412.011.30
Behind281.951.87

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level242.231.23
Ahead573.340.98
Behind102.161.05

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.164–3
16–300.250.102–2
31–450.510.355–3
46–600.340.283–3
61–750.200.132–1
76–900.330.514–3

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.400.126–0
16–300.400.251–1
31–450.710.247–2
46–600.570.076–1
61–750.310.202–1
76–900.540.161–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTReus 9Altena 8Borchgrevink 1McCart 5McEntee 4Fagan-Walcott 2Findlay 6Milne 1McCart 2Kingsley 2Milne 2Magnússon 3McEntee 2Ageu 1Mendy 7Spittal 3Renaud 1Miller 6Kerjota 3Braga 7Guendouz 1Ba-Sy 1McPake 8Miller 1Wilson 6Braga 2Ba-Sy 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTSinisalo 8Johnstone 1Donovan 6Johnston 2Carter-Vickers 1Carter-Vickers 5Murray 3Trusty 6Scales 4Tierney 6Scales 3McGregor 8Baur 6Oxlade-Chamberlain 2Engels 2Hassan 5Durán 3McCowan 1Nygren 7Donovan 1Sørensen 1Yang 5Tounekti 2Nygren 1Durán 5Høgh 44-2-3-1 in 7 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 3-4-3 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
18 October 2026Celtic7–1HeartsxG 4.23–1.20
16 May 2026Celtic3–1HeartsxG 2.83–0.93
25 January 2026Hearts2–2CelticxG 1.66–1.35
7 December 2025Celtic1–2HeartsxG 1.87–0.52
26 October 2025Hearts3–1CelticxG 1.57–0.88
29 March 2025Celtic3–0HeartsxG 2.68–1.02

20 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 5, Celtic won 14, and 1 was a draw. Goals 23–49 and xG 0.98–2.49 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miller8589310.460.13
Braga9726320.470.10
McPake8610350.210.23
Mendy8672300.180.07

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nygren8654630.730.23
Durán8591550.560.33
Tierney6459130.310.44
Baur6550100.290.19

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.