Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

St. Mirren v Aberdeen

Sunday 3 January 2027, 14:30 · The Marbill Coaches Stadium · Round 22

Forecast

St. MirrenAberdeen
Expected goals1.341.14
Win41%31%
Expected Points1.501.22
Clean sheet32%26%

St. Mirren 41%Draw 28%Aberdeen 31%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 51%.

Aberdeen goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+9%9%5%2%7%3%8%9%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%11%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. L1–317 OctAberdeen (A)xG 1.03–2.83
  2. L0–510 OctHearts (A)xG 0.68–3.43
  3. L0–319 SepDundee United (H)xG 0.99–1.60
  4. L0–19 SepRangers (A)xG 1.26–2.49
  5. L1–25 SepCeltic (H)xG 1.95–3.19
  6. W1–02 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 0.85–0.41

Aberdeen

  1. W3–117 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.83–1.03
  2. L0–111 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.23–1.10
  3. D1–119 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.70–1.40
  4. W4–015 SepMotherwell (A)xG 0.90–0.85
  5. D0–05 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.08–1.11
  6. L0–32 SepCeltic (A)xG 0.68–2.67

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenAberdeen
Position8th7th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠1–⁠53–⁠2–⁠4
Points10 (1.11 per game)11 (1.22 per game)
Expected Points per game1.091.15
Goals9–⁠1710–⁠10
xG per game1.43–⁠2.011.24–⁠1.55
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.86–⁠2.101.40, 1.63–⁠1.43
Away: points, xG per game1.20, 1.08–⁠1.941.00, 0.75–⁠1.69
ManagerCraig McLeish (18)Stephen Robinson (18)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackSt. Mirren1.08, 11thAberdeen1.15, 9thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.49, 9thAberdeen1.44, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctSt. Mirren attack: 1.08Aberdeen attack: 1.151.151.08AberdeenSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctSt. Mirren defence: 1.49Aberdeen defence: 1.441.491.44

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenAberdeen
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−22%+1%−43%−16%
Counter-attacks+67%+29%−68%+11%
Set pieces−37%+16%+42%−14%
Penalties+14%+186%+14%+71%
Headers−54%−13%+49%−31%
Left side−17%average−57%+2%
Centre−10%−20%−18%−39%
Right side−17%+62%−10%+19%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdAberdeen concededLeft side−17%+19%Centre−10%−39%Right side−17%+2%Open play−22%−16%Counter-attacks+67%+11%Set pieces−37%−14%Headers−54%−31%

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−57%+62%Centre−18%−20%Right side−10%averageOpen play−43%+1%Counter-attacks−68%+29%Set pieces+42%+16%Headers+49%−13%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenAberdeen

1.43xG1.24
2.01xG against1.55
50%Possession46%
13.4Shots12.1
15.4Shots against15.6
3.9Shots on target3.3
2.1Big chances1.8
25.7Touches in the opposition box21.9
448Passes385
81%Pass accuracy77%
4.4Corners5.7
47%Field tilt42%
39.2Final-third entries38.6
14.2Box entries12.5
14.0Passes per defensive action14.0

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level291.612.69
Ahead281.401.23
Behind321.282.09

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level371.391.54
Ahead191.071.41
Behind341.171.64

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.372–4
16–300.240.211–2
31–450.240.314–2
46–600.150.600–4
61–750.340.181–2
76–900.370.341–3

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.030.191–3
16–300.110.261–0
31–450.120.371–4
46–600.300.152–1
61–750.150.311–2
76–900.520.264–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTChapman 9Ramsay 7Fraser 1Richardson 1Gogić 8Fraser 2Jackson 1Fieldson 7John 8Sule 1Carr 9Nsio 5Phillips 2Taylor 2Mochrie 4Ramos 2Kabia 1Phillips 2Taylor 2Nsio 1Kabia 4Nsio 1Thomas 1Agrafiotis 4Sule 2Phillips 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

Aberdeen

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTMüller 9Cadden 8Lyons 1Mayo 7Milne 2Knoester 5Guinness… 1Guinness-WalkerOlusanya 1Molloy 4Happe 4Guinness… 8Guinness-WalkerCadden 1Ronan 5Olusanya 2Lyons 2Aremu 8Briedl 2Marshall 3Smith 2Yogane 1Olusanya 3Mouloua 2Ntelo 1Nisbet 9Yogane 35-3-2 in 3 of 9 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (3), 4-1-3-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
17 October 2026Aberdeen3–1St. MirrenxG 2.83–1.03
12 May 2026Aberdeen0–2St. MirrenxG 0.53–1.50
4 April 2026St. Mirren2–0AberdeenxG 0.90–0.53
3 December 2025Aberdeen3–3St. MirrenxG 2.08–1.83
18 October 2025St. Mirren0–1AberdeenxG 0.48–2.05
3 May 2025St. Mirren1–0AberdeenxG 1.22–0.47

23 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 11, Aberdeen won 7, and 5 were drawn. Goals 36–32 and xG 1.40–1.37 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ramsay7565000.140.10
Kabia7550000.100.13
John8720100.070.13
Mochrie7474000.070.11

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nisbet9722510.590.03
Armstrong3456000.030.23
Mayo7561010.220.00
Olusanya6572000.100.05

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.