Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Hearts v Aberdeen

Wednesday 2 December 2026, 19:45 · Tynecastle Park · Round 16

Forecast

HeartsAberdeen
Expected goals1.880.89
Win60%17%
Expected Points2.040.73
Clean sheet41%15%

Hearts 60%Draw 23%Aberdeen 17%

Most likely score 1–0, 11%. Both sides score 50%.

Aberdeen goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+7%5%2%5%1%4%1%7%6%3%3%3%1%1%1%11%11%11%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Hearts

  1. L1–718 OctCeltic (A)xG 1.20–4.23
  2. W5–010 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.43–0.68
  3. D1–119 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 1.92–0.39
  4. L1–215 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.79–2.14
  5. W2–16 SepDundee FC (H)xG 1.93–0.42
  6. W3–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.86–1.47

Aberdeen

  1. W3–117 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.83–1.03
  2. L0–111 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.23–1.10
  3. D1–119 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.70–1.40
  4. W4–015 SepMotherwell (A)xG 0.90–0.85
  5. D0–05 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.08–1.11
  6. L0–32 SepCeltic (A)xG 0.68–2.67

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsAberdeen
Position3rd7th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠1–⁠33–⁠2–⁠4
Points16 (1.78 per game)11 (1.22 per game)
Expected Points per game1.701.15
Goals20–⁠1510–⁠10
xG per game1.93–⁠1.541.24–⁠1.55
Home: points, xG per game3.00, 2.44–⁠0.741.40, 1.63–⁠1.43
Away: points, xG per game0.80, 1.52–⁠2.181.00, 0.75–⁠1.69
ManagerWouter Vrancken (9)Stephen Robinson (18)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackHearts1.52, 3rdAberdeen1.15, 9thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.16, 3rdAberdeen1.44, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHearts attack: 1.52Aberdeen attack: 1.151.521.15AberdeenHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHearts defence: 1.16Aberdeen defence: 1.441.441.16

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsAberdeen
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+6%average−43%−16%
Counter-attacks−20%−10%−68%+11%
Set pieces+32%+4%+42%−14%
Penalties+129%−43%+14%+71%
Headers−14%+40%+49%−31%
Left side+41%+6%−57%+2%
Centre+13%+15%−18%−39%
Right side−35%−30%−10%+19%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdAberdeen concededLeft side+41%+19%Centre+13%−39%Right side−35%+2%Open play+6%−16%Counter-attacks−20%+11%Set pieces+32%−14%Headers−14%−31%

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdHearts concededLeft side−57%−30%Centre−18%+15%Right side−10%+6%Open play−43%averageCounter-attacks−68%−10%Set pieces+42%+4%Headers+49%+40%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsAberdeen

1.93xG1.24
1.54xG against1.55
54%Possession46%
17.1Shots12.1
10.4Shots against15.6
5.3Shots on target3.3
2.6Big chances1.8
29.7Touches in the opposition box21.9
455Passes385
80%Pass accuracy77%
6.9Corners5.7
59%Field tilt42%
38.2Final-third entries38.6
16.5Box entries12.5
12.1Passes per defensive action14.0

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level211.751.55
Ahead412.011.30
Behind281.951.87

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level371.391.54
Ahead191.071.41
Behind341.171.64

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.164–3
16–300.250.102–2
31–450.510.355–3
46–600.340.283–3
61–750.200.132–1
76–900.330.514–3

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.030.191–3
16–300.110.261–0
31–450.120.371–4
46–600.300.152–1
61–750.150.311–2
76–900.520.264–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTReus 9Altena 8Borchgrevink 1McCart 5McEntee 4Fagan-Walcott 2Findlay 6Milne 1McCart 2Kingsley 2Milne 2Magnússon 3McEntee 2Ageu 1Mendy 7Spittal 3Renaud 1Miller 6Kerjota 3Braga 7Guendouz 1Ba-Sy 1McPake 8Miller 1Wilson 6Braga 2Ba-Sy 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Aberdeen

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTMüller 9Cadden 8Lyons 1Mayo 7Milne 2Knoester 5Guinness… 1Guinness-WalkerOlusanya 1Molloy 4Happe 4Guinness… 8Guinness-WalkerCadden 1Ronan 5Olusanya 2Lyons 2Aremu 8Briedl 2Marshall 3Smith 2Yogane 1Olusanya 3Mouloua 2Ntelo 1Nisbet 9Yogane 35-3-2 in 3 of 9 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (3), 4-1-3-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
1 August 2026Aberdeen2–1HeartsxG 2.66–1.83
28 February 2026Hearts1–0AberdeenxG 2.33–0.39
23 November 2025Aberdeen1–0HeartsxG 0.56–2.30
4 August 2025Hearts2–0AberdeenxG 1.03–1.40
12 January 2025Aberdeen0–0HeartsxG 1.10–1.54
1 December 2024Hearts1–1AberdeenxG 1.15–0.62

17 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 7, Aberdeen won 7, and 3 were drawn. Goals 23–18 and xG 1.56–1.12 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miller8589310.460.13
Braga9726320.470.10
McPake8610350.210.23
Mendy8672300.180.07

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nisbet9722510.590.03
Armstrong3456000.030.23
Mayo7561010.220.00
Olusanya6572000.100.05

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.