Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Aberdeen 3–1 St. Mirren

Saturday 17 October 2026, 15:00 · Pittodrie Stadium · Round 9 · Half-time 1–1 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 17,020

Aberdeen Lyons 3', Nisbet 59', Mouloua 72'

St. Mirren Sule 42'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

AberdeenSt. Mirren
Goals31
xG2.831.03
Non-penalty xG2.041.03
Expected Points2.540.32

Aberdeen 80%Draw 13%St. Mirren 6%

Most likely score 3–1, 13%. Final score 3–1, 13%.

St. Mirren goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+3%4%2%6%2%7%2%6%7%4%1%2%2%1%9%11%11%13%Final score

Own goals have no xG. How Expected Points work.

xG race

01230153045607590HTYogane on for Lyons and Armstrong on for Ronan, 46'Mouloua on for Olusanya, 71'Gyamfi on for Smith, 76'Marshall on for Nisbet, 90+3'Ramos on for Thomas, 59'Taylor on for Nsio, 67'Young on for Sule, 74'Lyons 3'Nisbet 59'Mouloua 72'Sule 42'Aberdeen 2.83St. Mirren 1.0301230153045607590HTYogane on for Lyons and Armstrong on for Ronan, 46'Mouloua on for Olusanya, 71'Gyamfi on for Smith, 76'Marshall on for Nisbet, 90+3'Ramos on for Thomas, 59'Taylor on for Nsio, 67'Young on for Sule, 74'Lyons 3'Nisbet 59'Mouloua 72'Sule 42'2.831.03AberdeenSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

AberdeenSt. Mirren

2.83 +1.79xG1.03 −0.44
2.04Non-penalty xG1.03
3.04 +2.08xG on target1.81 +0.52
17 +6Shots13 0
7 +4.1Shots on target7 +3.5
4 +2.5Big chances1 −1.2
21 −1Touches in the opposition box23 −3
34% −14Possession66% +18
276 −123Passes547 +111
72% −5Pass accuracy83% +2
2 −4.1Corners6 +1.8
15 −3Tackles15 −5
13 +4.5Interceptions9 −1.1
21 −9Clearances18 −10
6 +2.1Saves4 +0.6
18 +6Fouls16 +3
1 −1.1Offsides0 −1.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one.

Chance locations

Aberdeen

Nisbet 81', 0.54 xGYogane 50', 0.14 xGNisbet 34', 0.13 xGMayo 87', 0.12 xGMouloua 83', 0.08 xGNisbet 53', 0.06 xGNisbet 30', 0.05 xGNisbet 45+1', 0.05 xGYogane 86', 0.05 xGOlusanya 66', 0.04 xGSmith 6', 0.02 xGYogane 60', 0.02 xGRonan 10', 0.00 xGNisbet 58', 0.68 xG, goalMouloua 72', 0.04 xG, goalLyons 2', 0.02 xG, goal6%0.12 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.12 xG, 0 goals77%1.58 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 1.58 xG, 2 goals6%0.13 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals10%0.21 xGEdge of the box: 7 shots, 0.21 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Phillips 16', 0.22 xGPhillips 16', 0.16 xGRamsay 82', 0.12 xGJohn 27', 0.08 xGThomas 35', 0.06 xGSule 50', 0.06 xGKabia 79', 0.06 xGTaylor 90+4', 0.06 xGSule 29', 0.05 xGCarr 20', 0.02 xGKabia 62', 0.02 xGTaylor 90', 0.02 xGSule 42', 0.09 xG, goal5%0.05 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals57%0.59 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.59 xG, 1 goal16%0.17 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals22%0.23 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

AberdeenSt. Mirren

1.20 12 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.89 11 shots, 1 goal
0.85 4 shots, 2 goalsSet pieces0.15 2 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 0 goalsPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
21 min (22%) · Aberdeen 1.74, St. Mirren 0.07 xG
Aberdeen ahead
74 min (78%) · Aberdeen 1.09, St. Mirren 0.97 xG

Line-ups

27282352432825112015MüllerCaddenMayoKnoesterGuinness-WalkerAremuLyonsRonanSmithOlusanyaNisbetGoalGoal46'46'76'71'90+3'Aberdeen 4-1-3-2Stephen Robinson147132234888816199ChapmanRamsayGogićFraserJohnNsioCarrPhillipsThomasKabiaSuleYellow cardYellow cardGoal67'59'74'St. Mirren 4-4-2Craig McLeish

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 46' Armstrong for Ronan · yellow card 77'
  • 46' Yogane for Lyons
  • 71' Mouloua for Olusanya · goal 72'
  • 76' Gyamfi for Smith
  • 90+3' Marshall for Nisbet

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 59' Ramos for Thomas
  • 67' Taylor for Nsio
  • 74' Young for Sule

Players

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
MüllerGK900.000.0412
CaddenRB900.000.2019
MayoCB900.120.0008
KnoesterCB900.000.0006
Guinness-WalkerLB900.000.11110
AremuDM9010.000.0218
LyonsCM4610.020.0610
RonanAM4610.000.0110
SmithCM760.020.1134
OlusanyaST710.040.0310
NisbetST9012.300.0001
Armstrong MF440.000.3221
YoganeFW440.210.0400
MoulouaFW1910.130.0913
GyamfiMF140.000.0001
MarshallMF00.000.0000

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
ChapmanGK900.000.0001
RamsayRB900.120.0604
GogićCB900.000.01014
FraserCB900.000.1125
JohnLB900.080.3532
Nsio RM670.000.0306
Carr CM900.020.0106
PhillipsCM9010.380.1620
ThomasLM590.060.1532
KabiaST900.080.0302
SuleST7410.210.0002
RamosMF310.000.0314
TaylorMF230.080.0500
YoungFW160.000.0110

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions).

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackAberdeen1.11 → 1.15St. Mirren1.10 → 1.08Defence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.47 → 1.44St. Mirren1.44 → 1.49

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Aberdeen
Top six23%30%+7
11th16%13%−3
Bottom15%10%−5
St. Mirren
Top six32%24%−8
11th11%15%+4
Bottom9%12%+3
Dundee United
Top six44%44%0
11th7%6%−1
Bottom4%4%0

From the forecast before the match (17 October 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points. How the forecasts work.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

AberdeenSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.371.08
Win43%29%
Expected Points1.571.15
Clean sheet34%25%

Aberdeen 43%Draw 28%St. Mirren 29%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 50%.

St. Mirren goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+9%9%5%2%7%2%8%9%5%2%4%4%2%1%1%11%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 17 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowAberdeen winDrawSt. Mirren win
Aberdeen
Top six23%30%21%16%
11th16%13%16%19%
Bottom15%10%16%20%
St. Mirren
Top six32%24%32%45%
11th11%15%11%7%
Bottom9%12%9%5%
Dundee United
Top six44%44%47%43%
11th7%6%6%8%
Bottom4%4%4%4%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Aberdeen

  1. L0–111 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.23–1.10
  2. D1–119 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.70–1.40
  3. W4–015 SepMotherwell (A)xG 0.90–0.85
  4. D0–05 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.08–1.11
  5. L0–32 SepCeltic (A)xG 0.68–2.67
  6. L0–130 AugRangers (H)xG 0.35–2.10

St. Mirren

  1. L0–510 OctHearts (A)xG 0.68–3.43
  2. L0–319 SepDundee United (H)xG 0.99–1.60
  3. L0–19 SepRangers (A)xG 1.26–2.49
  4. L1–25 SepCeltic (H)xG 1.95–3.19
  5. W1–02 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 0.85–0.41
  6. D3–330 AugMotherwell (H)xG 2.92–2.45

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

AberdeenSt. Mirren
Position8th7th
Played88
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠2–⁠43–⁠1–⁠4
Points8 (1.00 per game)10 (1.25 per game)
Expected Points per game0.981.19
Goals7–⁠98–⁠14
xG per game1.04–⁠1.611.47–⁠1.91
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.33–⁠1.541.00, 1.86–⁠2.10
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 0.75–⁠1.691.50, 1.09–⁠1.72
ManagerStephen Robinson (17)Craig McLeish (17)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackAberdeen1.11, 10thSt. Mirren1.10, 11thDefence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.47, 9thSt. Mirren1.44, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctAberdeen attack: 1.11St. Mirren attack: 1.101.111.10St. MirrenAberdeenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctAberdeen defence: 1.47St. Mirren defence: 1.441.471.44

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

AberdeenSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−50%−14%−21%+1%
Counter-attacks−64%+24%+85%+43%
Set pieces+30%−7%−33%+1%
Penalties−40%+80%+20%+140%
Headers+56%−23%−50%−14%
Left side−61%+11%−13%+3%
Centre−32%−41%−7%−34%
Right side−7%+28%−11%+73%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−61%+73%Centre−32%−34%Right side−7%+3%Open play−50%+1%Counter-attacks−64%+43%Set pieces+30%+1%Headers+56%−14%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdAberdeen concededLeft side−13%+28%Centre−7%−41%Right side−11%+11%Open play−21%−14%Counter-attacks+85%+24%Set pieces−33%−7%Headers−50%−23%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

AberdeenSt. Mirren

1.04xG1.47
1.61xG against1.91
48%Possession48%
11.5Shots13.5
15.9Shots against15.2
2.9Shots on target3.5
1.5Big chances2.2
22.0Touches in the opposition box26.0
399Passes436
78%Pass accuracy80%
6.1Corners4.2
42%Field tilt47%
38.6Final-third entries39.2
12.5Box entries14.2
14.0Passes per defensive action14.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level390.971.61
Ahead120.841.56
Behind391.171.64

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level311.702.25
Ahead321.401.23
Behind271.312.33

xG by period

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.030.220–3
16–300.120.221–0
31–450.120.401–3
46–600.120.161–1
61–750.160.350–2
76–900.490.264–0

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.412–3
16–300.200.231–2
31–450.250.333–2
46–600.170.460–3
61–750.380.201–1
76–900.380.291–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Unavailable

Aberdeen

PlayerReasonExpected backStartsMin
TobersInjuryMid October 202600

St. Mirren

PlayerReasonExpected backStartsMin
DijksteelInjuryMid October 202600
AyungaInjuryEarly January 202700
BaccusInjuryMid October 202600

Injured, suspended, and otherwise unavailable players as listed before the match, with their league starts and minutes this season.

Most used players by position

Aberdeen

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTMüller 8Cadden 7Lyons 1Mayo 6Milne 2Knoester 4Guinness… 1Guinness-WalkerOlusanya 1Molloy 4Happe 4Guinness… 7Guinness-WalkerCadden 1Ronan 5Olusanya 2Armstrong 2Aremu 7Briedl 2Marshall 3Yogane 1Yogane 3Mouloua 2Olusanya 2Nisbet 85-3-2 in 3 of 8 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

St. Mirren

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTChapman 8Ramsay 6Fraser 1Richardson 1Gogić 7Jackson 1Fraser 1Fieldson 7John 7Sule 1Carr 8Nsio 5Taylor 2Phillips 1Mochrie 4Ramos 2Kabia 1Phillips 2Taylor 2Nsio 1Kabia 4Mochrie 1Taylor 1Agrafiotis 4Sule 2Mochrie 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 5-4-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
12 May 2026Aberdeen0–2St. MirrenxG 0.53–1.50
4 April 2026St. Mirren2–0AberdeenxG 0.90–0.53
3 December 2025Aberdeen3–3St. MirrenxG 2.08–1.83
18 October 2025St. Mirren0–1AberdeenxG 0.48–2.05
3 May 2025St. Mirren1–0AberdeenxG 1.22–0.47
25 January 2025Aberdeen0–3St. MirrenxG 1.41–1.78

22 league meetings since 2020/21: Aberdeen won 6, St. Mirren won 11, and 5 were drawn. Goals 29–35 and xG 1.30–1.41 per game.

Key players

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nisbet8632410.340.04
Mayo6471010.240.01
Olusanya5501000.110.05
Guinness-Walker8675000.010.11

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kabia6460000.100.15
Ramsay6475000.140.11
Mochrie7474000.070.11
John7630100.070.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.