Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Falkirk v Hibernian

Saturday 2 January 2027, 15:00 · The Falkirk Stadium · Round 22

Forecast

FalkirkHibernian
Expected goals1.291.26
Win37%35%
Expected Points1.381.34
Clean sheet28%28%

Falkirk 37%Draw 28%Hibernian 35%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Hibernian goalsFalkirk goals0123456+0123456+8%9%6%3%9%8%3%1%6%8%5%2%3%4%2%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Falkirk

  1. W2–117 OctHibernian (A)xG 0.74–1.35
  2. L1–210 OctDundee FC (H)xG 1.97–1.41
  3. D1–119 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.29–0.94
  4. W2–115 SepHearts (H)xG 2.14–1.79
  5. D1–15 SepDundee United (A)xG 1.27–2.66
  6. L1–22 SepRangers (H)xG 1.00–1.57

Hibernian

  1. L1–217 OctFalkirk (H)xG 1.35–0.74
  2. L0–110 OctDundee United (A)xG 0.77–1.68
  3. D1–119 SepAberdeen (H)xG 1.40–0.70
  4. L0–115 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.45–2.21
  5. L1–26 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.61–2.32
  6. L1–33 SepHearts (H)xG 1.47–0.86

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

FalkirkHibernian
Position9th12th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠3–⁠42–⁠1–⁠6
Points9 (1.00 per game)7 (0.78 per game)
Expected Points per game0.981.38
Goals9–⁠129–⁠14
xG per game1.12–⁠1.781.56–⁠1.55
Home: points, xG per game0.75, 1.42–⁠1.580.20, 1.52–⁠1.34
Away: points, xG per game1.20, 0.88–⁠1.931.50, 1.60–⁠1.81
ManagerJohn McGlynn (47)Marink Reedijk (2)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackFalkirk1.18, 7thHibernian1.32, 5thDefence (lower is better)Falkirk1.44, 8thHibernian1.28, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctFalkirk attack: 1.18Hibernian attack: 1.321.321.18HibernianFalkirkDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctFalkirk defence: 1.44Hibernian defence: 1.281.441.28

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

FalkirkHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−9%+29%−15%−2%
Counter-attacks−84%−28%−22%−8%
Set pieces−53%+32%+5%−15%
Penalties−43%−100%+71%+14%
Headers−61%−44%−42%+2%
Left side−48%+11%−12%−3%
Centre−34%+15%−26%+6%
Right sideaverage+43%+16%−28%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdHibernian concededLeft side−48%−28%Centre−34%+6%Right sideaverage−3%Open play−9%−2%Counter-attacks−84%−8%Set pieces−53%−15%Headers−61%+2%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdFalkirk concededLeft side−12%+43%Centre−26%+15%Right side+16%+11%Open play−15%+29%Counter-attacks−22%−28%Set pieces+5%+32%Headers−42%−44%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

FalkirkHibernian

1.12xG1.56
1.78xG against1.55
46%Possession53%
11.4Shots16.4
16.0Shots against13.0
3.3Shots on target4.2
1.4Big chances2.0
23.2Touches in the opposition box31.3
396Passes459
76%Pass accuracy81%
4.3Corners6.8
49%Field tilt55%
38.5Final-third entries44.7
9.8Box entries15.0
12.6Passes per defensive action14.7

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level391.431.47
Ahead281.091.92
Behind240.652.12

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level321.081.72
Ahead151.552.02
Behind431.911.25

xG by period

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.153–3
16–300.080.410–2
31–450.260.363–1
46–600.110.211–1
61–750.210.312–0
76–900.290.340–5

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.091–2
16–300.180.202–2
31–450.280.411–6
46–600.290.282–0
61–750.280.162–1
76–900.370.401–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 9Strain 9Neilson 7Meļņiks 2Henderson 9McCann 7Tanser 2Barbrook 8McMillan 1Spencer 7Krauhaus 1Sibbald 1Ross 6Fodrey 1Doherty 1Krauhaus 7Yeats 2Eames 5Ross 2Fodrey 1Murrell 6Parkinson 2MacIver 14-2-3-1 in every start

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWSallinger 9Kerr 9Passlack 2O'Hora 2Hanley 4Ivezić 2Obita 4Iredale 2Abdulai 1Passlack 6Wright 1Megwa 1Mulligan 9Chaiwa 6Devaney 2Wright 1Mayor 6Wright 1Iredale 1Elding 3Boyle 3Šuto 1Lowe 4Boyle 2Šuto 2Klidje 4McGrath 2Boyle 13-4-3 in 3 of 9 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (3), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
17 October 2026Hibernian1–2FalkirkxG 1.35–0.74
9 May 2026Falkirk1–3HibernianxG 0.63–1.10
24 January 2026Falkirk4–1HibernianxG 3.64–0.73
6 December 2025Hibernian3–0FalkirkxG 2.02–0.49
23 September 2025Falkirk2–2HibernianxG 1.18–2.43

5 league meetings since 2020/21: Falkirk won 2, Hibernian won 2, and 1 was a draw. Goals 9–10 and xG 1.34–1.53 per game.

Key players

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Murrell6470400.600.03
Strain9810040.070.16
Barbrook8675000.110.09
Ross8647110.090.10

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Boyle6505300.550.20
Passlack8734020.070.26
Mayor6539100.060.15
Mulligan9795010.130.08

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.