Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Hibernian 1–2 Falkirk

Saturday 17 October 2026, 15:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 9 · Half-time 1–2 · Referee Nick Walsh · Attendance 18,390

Hibernian Elding 41'

Falkirk Murrell 14', 37'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianFalkirk
Goals12
xG1.350.74
Expected Points1.830.86

Hibernian 51%Draw 30%Falkirk 19%

Most likely score 1–0, 17%. Final score 1–2, 5%.

Falkirk goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+11%8%3%5%1%12%10%4%5%4%1%1%1%17%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG. How Expected Points work.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTMcGrath on for Abdulai and Matondo on for Klidje, 60'Šuto on for Mayor and Cadden on for Chaiwa, 76'McCann on for Tanser, 46'Meļņiks on for Krauhaus, 65'Fodrey on for Ross, 77'Yeats on for Barbrook and McMillan on for Eames, 84'Elding 41'Murrell 14'Murrell 37'Hibernian 1.35Falkirk 0.7400.511.50153045607590HTMcGrath on for Abdulai and Matondo on for Klidje, 60'Šuto on for Mayor and Cadden on for Chaiwa, 76'McCann on for Tanser, 46'Meļņiks on for Krauhaus, 65'Fodrey on for Ross, 77'Yeats on for Barbrook and McMillan on for Eames, 84'Elding 41'Murrell 14'Murrell 37'1.350.74HibernianFalkirk

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianFalkirk

1.35 −0.23xG0.74 −0.43
0.75 −0.47xG on target1.13 +0.28
17 +1Shots10 −2
3 −1.4Shots on target5 +1.9
2 0.0Big chances1 −0.5
29 −3Touches in the opposition box16 −8
70% +19Possession30% −18
587 +144Passes249 −166
80% −1Pass accuracy66% −12
6 −0.9Corners3 −1.5
14 −2Tackles18 +1
3 −4.5Interceptions5 −3.6
15 −9Clearances46 +18
3 −0.9Saves2 −2.8
5 −8Fouls20 +5
0 −2.2Offsides2 +0.8

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one.

Chance locations

Hibernian

McGrath 82', 0.22 xGBoyle 29', 0.14 xGElding 78', 0.12 xGMulligan 51', 0.06 xGPasslack 5', 0.05 xGKlidje 5', 0.05 xGAbdulai 47', 0.05 xGBoyle 57', 0.05 xGMayor 66', 0.05 xGMcGrath 80', 0.05 xGPasslack 51', 0.04 xGPasslack 18', 0.03 xGKlidje 30', 0.03 xGAbdulai 34', 0.02 xGMayor 35', 0.02 xGKlidje 51', 0.02 xGElding 41', 0.34 xG, goal25%0.34 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.34 xG, 1 goal39%0.53 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.53 xG, 0 goals29%0.39 xGWide in the box: 7 shots, 0.39 xG, 0 goals5%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals1%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Falkirk

Eames 80', 0.17 xGBarbrook 80', 0.11 xGMurrell 44', 0.10 xGMurrell 86', 0.06 xGKrauhaus 42', 0.05 xGEames 13', 0.04 xGMurrell 7', 0.03 xGStrain 22', 0.03 xGMurrell 37', 0.11 xG, goalMurrell 13', 0.05 xG, goal23%0.17 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.17 xG, 0 goals25%0.18 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals34%0.25 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.25 xG, 1 goal18%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.13 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianFalkirk

1.04 12 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.58 8 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.05 1 shot, 1 goal
0.31 5 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.10 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
14 min (16%) · Hibernian 0.11, Falkirk 0.12 xG
Falkirk ahead
76 min (84%) · Hibernian 1.24, Falkirk 0.62 xG

Line-ups

1654725814371018SallingerKerrIvezićAbdulaiPasslackMulliganChaiwaMayorEldingBoyleKlidjeGoalYellow card60'76'76'60'Hibernian 3-4-1-2Marink Reedijk19221551781623284224BainStrainNeilsonHendersonTanserSpencerBarbrookRossKrauhausEamesMurrellYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoal46'84'77'65'84'Falkirk 4-2-3-1John McGlynn

Hibernian substitutes

  • 60' McGrath for Abdulai
  • 60' Matondo for Klidje
  • 76' Cadden for Chaiwa
  • 76' Šuto for Mayor

Falkirk substitutes

  • 46' McCann for Tanser
  • 65' Meļņiks for Krauhaus
  • 77' Fodrey for Ross
  • 84' Yeats for Barbrook
  • 84' McMillan for Eames

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
SallingerGK900.000.0101
KerrCB900.000.0107
IvezićCB900.000.0107
AbdulaiCB600.070.0111
PasslackRWB9010.130.4123
MulliganCM900.060.0103
ChaiwaCM760.000.0100
MayorLWB760.070.0414
Elding AM9010.460.0313
BoyleST900.190.0602
KlidjeST600.100.0111
McGrathMF300.270.0200
MatondoFW300.000.0721
CaddenMF140.000.0001
ŠutoFW140.000.0410

Falkirk

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
BainGK900.000.0003
Strain RB9010.030.1127
NeilsonCB900.000.00011
HendersonCB900.000.00016
TanserLB460.000.0310
SpencerDM900.000.02010
Barbrook DM840.110.0215
RossRW7710.000.0625
Krauhaus AM650.050.0104
EamesLW840.200.0203
MurrellST9020.340.0103
McCannDF440.000.0003
MeļņiksDF250.000.0101
FodreyFW130.000.0013
YeatsMF60.000.0911
McMillanMF60.000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions).

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackHibernian1.32 → 1.31Falkirk1.18 → 1.18Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.27 → 1.28Falkirk1.44 → 1.45

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Top six52%40%−12
11th5%7%+2
Bottom3%5%+2
Falkirk
Top six21%33%+12
11th14%10%−4
Bottom15%9%−6

From the forecast before the match (17 October 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points. How the forecasts work.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianFalkirk
Expected goals1.641.01
Win51%23%
Expected Points1.800.94
Clean sheet36%19%

Hibernian 51%Draw 26%Falkirk 23%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 52%.

Falkirk goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+8%7%4%1%6%2%5%2%5%5%3%2%2%1%11%12%9%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 17 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawFalkirk win
Hibernian
Top six52%60%46%40%
11th5%4%6%7%
Bottom3%2%4%5%
Falkirk
Top six21%16%21%33%
11th14%16%13%10%
Bottom15%18%14%9%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. L0–110 OctDundee United (A)xG 0.77–1.68
  2. D1–119 SepAberdeen (H)xG 1.40–0.70
  3. L0–115 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.45–2.21
  4. L1–26 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.61–2.32
  5. L1–33 SepHearts (H)xG 1.47–0.86
  6. W2–130 AugDundee FC (A)xG 2.33–1.03

Falkirk

  1. L1–210 OctDundee FC (H)xG 1.97–1.41
  2. D1–119 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.29–0.94
  3. W2–115 SepHearts (H)xG 2.14–1.79
  4. D1–15 SepDundee United (A)xG 1.27–2.66
  5. L1–22 SepRangers (H)xG 1.00–1.57
  6. L1–229 AugCeltic (A)xG 0.57–3.45

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianFalkirk
Position10th11th
Played88
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠1–⁠51–⁠3–⁠4
Points7 (0.88 per game)6 (0.75 per game)
Expected Points per game1.330.99
Goals8–⁠127–⁠11
xG per game1.58–⁠1.651.17–⁠1.83
Home: points, xG per game0.25, 1.56–⁠1.490.75, 1.42–⁠1.58
Away: points, xG per game1.50, 1.60–⁠1.810.75, 0.92–⁠2.08
ManagerMarink Reedijk (1)John McGlynn (46)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackHibernian1.32, 4thFalkirk1.18, 7thDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.27, 4thFalkirk1.44, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHibernian attack: 1.32Falkirk attack: 1.181.321.18FalkirkHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHibernian defence: 1.27Falkirk defence: 1.441.441.27

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianFalkirk
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−15%+6%−2%+36%
Counter-attacks−13%−1%−86%−20%
Set pieces+8%−6%−50%+40%
Penalties+80%+20%−40%−100%
Headers−35%+7%−64%−37%
Left side−11%−2%−49%+14%
Centre−25%+24%−24%+24%
Right side+20%−26%+1%+51%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdFalkirk concededLeft side−11%+51%Centre−25%+24%Right side+20%+14%Open play−15%+36%Counter-attacks−13%−20%Set pieces+8%+40%Headers−35%−37%

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdHibernian concededLeft side−49%−26%Centre−24%+24%Right side+1%−2%Open play−2%+6%Counter-attacks−86%−1%Set pieces−50%−6%Headers−64%+7%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianFalkirk

1.58xG1.17
1.65xG against1.83
51%Possession48%
16.4Shots11.6
13.4Shots against15.9
4.4Shots on target3.1
2.0Big chances1.5
31.6Touches in the opposition box24.1
443Passes415
81%Pass accuracy77%
6.9Corners4.5
55%Field tilt49%
44.7Final-third entries38.5
15.0Box entries9.8
14.7Passes per defensive action12.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level341.101.77
Ahead171.552.02
Behind392.031.38

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.451.49
Ahead221.252.13
Behind260.652.12

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.091–1
16–300.180.232–2
31–450.270.430–5
46–600.300.312–0
61–750.310.182–1
76–900.360.411–3

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.180.152–3
16–300.090.430–2
31–450.260.362–0
46–600.130.211–1
61–750.230.342–0
76–900.280.330–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Unavailable

Hibernian

PlayerReasonExpected backStartsMin
DevaneySuspensionMid October 20264262
WrightInjuryA few weeks5411
LoweInjuryA few weeks4436
MegwaInjuryLate October 20262113
ObitaInjuryLate October 20264299
BushiriInjuryMid October 202600

Falkirk

PlayerReasonExpected backStartsMin
DohertyInjuryLate October 20261203
GardnerInjuryEarly November 2026184
LaidlawInjuryMid October 2026179
AdamsInjuryAbout 1–2 weeks00
NesbittInjuryMid October 202600

Injured, suspended, and otherwise unavailable players as listed before the match, with their league starts and minutes this season.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWSallinger 8Kerr 8Passlack 2O'Hora 2Hanley 4Iredale 2Obita 4Ivezić 1Megwa 1Passlack 5Wright 1Megwa 1Mulligan 8Chaiwa 5Devaney 2Wright 1Mayor 5Wright 1Iredale 1Boyle 3Elding 2Šuto 1Lowe 4Šuto 2Boyle 1Klidje 3McGrath 2Wright 13-4-3 in 3 of 8 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (3), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 8Strain 8Neilson 6Meļņiks 2Henderson 8McCann 7Tanser 1Barbrook 7McMillan 1Spencer 6Krauhaus 1Sibbald 1Ross 5Fodrey 1Doherty 1Krauhaus 6Yeats 2Eames 4Ross 2Fodrey 1Murrell 5Parkinson 2MacIver 14-2-3-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
9 May 2026Falkirk1–3HibernianxG 0.63–1.10
24 January 2026Falkirk4–1HibernianxG 3.64–0.73
6 December 2025Hibernian3–0FalkirkxG 2.02–0.49
23 September 2025Falkirk2–2HibernianxG 1.18–2.43

4 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 2, Falkirk won 1, and 1 was a draw. Goals 9–7 and xG 1.57–1.49 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Passlack7644010.060.24
Mulligan8705010.140.09
Mayor5463100.060.17
Kerr8720000.130.03

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Strain8720030.070.17
Barbrook7591000.110.10
Ross7570100.110.10
Spencer6528000.070.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.