Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Motherwell v Hibernian

Saturday 28 November 2026, 17:45 · Fir Park · Round 15

Forecast

MotherwellHibernian
Expected goals1.471.15
Win44%29%
Expected Points1.581.14
Clean sheet32%23%

Motherwell 44%Draw 27%Hibernian 29%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Hibernian goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+8%8%5%2%7%3%8%9%5%2%4%4%3%1%1%2%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Motherwell

  1. L2–317 OctKilmarnock (A)xG 3.37–1.64
  2. L0–211 OctCeltic (H)xG 1.10–2.85
  3. L1–219 SepDundee FC (A)xG 1.10–1.38
  4. L0–415 SepAberdeen (H)xG 0.85–0.90
  5. L0–15 SepRangers (A)xG 0.70–4.29
  6. W3–02 SepDundee United (H)xG 2.39–0.16

Hibernian

  1. L1–217 OctFalkirk (H)xG 1.35–0.74
  2. L0–110 OctDundee United (A)xG 0.77–1.68
  3. D1–119 SepAberdeen (H)xG 1.40–0.70
  4. L0–115 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.45–2.21
  5. L1–26 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.61–2.32
  6. L1–33 SepHearts (H)xG 1.47–0.86

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

MotherwellHibernian
Position10th12th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠2–⁠52–⁠1–⁠6
Points8 (0.89 per game)7 (0.78 per game)
Expected Points per game1.401.38
Goals11–⁠169–⁠14
xG per game1.71–⁠1.851.56–⁠1.55
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.40–⁠1.110.20, 1.52–⁠1.34
Away: points, xG per game0.80, 1.96–⁠2.431.50, 1.60–⁠1.81
ManagerAlfred Johansson (9)Marink Reedijk (2)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackMotherwell1.33, 4thHibernian1.32, 5thDefence (lower is better)Motherwell1.32, 5thHibernian1.28, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctMotherwell attack: 1.33Hibernian attack: 1.321.331.32HibernianMotherwellDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctMotherwell defence: 1.32Hibernian defence: 1.281.321.28

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

MotherwellHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+23%+3%−15%−2%
Counter-attacks+12%+74%−22%−8%
Set pieces−48%−11%+5%−15%
Penalties+14%+71%+71%+14%
Headers−41%−13%−42%+2%
Left side−39%−14%−12%−3%
Centre+9%+1%−26%+6%
Right side+49%+40%+16%−28%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdHibernian concededLeft side−39%−28%Centre+9%+6%Right side+49%−3%Open play+23%−2%Counter-attacks+12%−8%Set pieces−48%−15%Headers−41%+2%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdMotherwell concededLeft side−12%+40%Centre−26%+1%Right side+16%−14%Open play−15%+3%Counter-attacks−22%+74%Set pieces+5%−11%Headers−42%−13%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

MotherwellHibernian

1.71xG1.56
1.85xG against1.55
57%Possession53%
14.2Shots16.4
16.3Shots against13.0
4.7Shots on target4.2
2.6Big chances2.0
24.9Touches in the opposition box31.3
561Passes459
87%Pass accuracy81%
4.9Corners6.8
59%Field tilt55%
50.8Final-third entries44.7
14.1Box entries15.0
14.8Passes per defensive action14.7

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level352.001.50
Ahead152.331.42
Behind401.232.32

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level321.081.72
Ahead151.552.02
Behind431.911.25

xG by period

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.211–3
16–300.420.303–1
31–450.280.252–5
46–600.270.441–4
61–750.240.292–1
76–900.200.362–2

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.091–2
16–300.180.202–2
31–450.280.411–6
46–600.290.282–0
61–750.280.162–1
76–900.370.401–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Motherwell

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTPaulsen 9Sparrow 9Girdwood-Rei… 4Girdwood-ReichKnight-Lebel 3O'Donnell 2Moormann 9Longelo 8Williams 1Fadinger 9Priestman 2Hodge 6Levitt 1Maswanhise 5Vogt 3Kanga 1Lowry 5Charles-Cook 3Booth 1Said 5Longelo 1Houlden 1Houlden 3Maswanhise 2Said 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (2), 4-2-2-2 (1)

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWSallinger 9Kerr 9Passlack 2O'Hora 2Hanley 4Ivezić 2Obita 4Iredale 2Abdulai 1Passlack 6Wright 1Megwa 1Mulligan 9Chaiwa 6Devaney 2Wright 1Mayor 6Wright 1Iredale 1Elding 3Boyle 3Šuto 1Lowe 4Boyle 2Šuto 2Klidje 4McGrath 2Boyle 13-4-3 in 3 of 9 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (3), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
2 August 2026Hibernian1–2MotherwellxG 1.94–2.19
16 May 2026Hibernian0–1MotherwellxG 0.76–1.16
21 March 2026Motherwell0–0HibernianxG 0.44–0.60
10 January 2026Hibernian1–1MotherwellxG 1.31–1.03
25 November 2025Motherwell2–0HibernianxG 2.14–0.77
11 January 2025Hibernian3–1MotherwellxG 2.22–0.22

21 league meetings since 2020/21: Motherwell won 7, Hibernian won 7, and 7 were drawn. Goals 24–28 and xG 1.11–1.39 per game.

Key players

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Maswanhise7581120.530.15
Lowry7602310.300.23
Longelo9746000.070.28
Said6533100.160.18

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Boyle6505300.550.20
Passlack8734020.070.26
Mayor6539100.060.15
Mulligan9795010.130.08

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.