Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Kilmarnock v Falkirk

Wednesday 30 December 2026, 19:45 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 21

Forecast

KilmarnockFalkirk
Expected goals1.451.26
Win41%32%
Expected Points1.491.24
Clean sheet28%23%

Kilmarnock 41%Draw 27%Falkirk 32%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 55%.

Falkirk goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+7%8%5%2%9%8%3%1%7%9%6%2%3%4%3%1%1%2%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. W3–217 OctMotherwell (H)xG 1.64–3.37
  2. L1–310 OctRangers (A)xG 1.15–1.42
  3. D1–119 SepHearts (H)xG 0.39–1.92
  4. W1–015 SepHibernian (A)xG 2.21–1.45
  5. D0–05 SepAberdeen (A)xG 1.11–1.08
  6. L0–12 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.41–0.85

Falkirk

  1. W2–117 OctHibernian (A)xG 0.74–1.35
  2. L1–210 OctDundee FC (H)xG 1.97–1.41
  3. D1–119 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.29–0.94
  4. W2–115 SepHearts (H)xG 2.14–1.79
  5. D1–15 SepDundee United (A)xG 1.27–2.66
  6. L1–22 SepRangers (H)xG 1.00–1.57

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockFalkirk
Position11th9th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠2–⁠52–⁠3–⁠4
Points8 (0.89 per game)9 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game0.770.98
Goals10–⁠209–⁠12
xG per game1.10–⁠2.341.12–⁠1.78
Home: points, xG per game0.80, 0.91–⁠3.010.75, 1.42–⁠1.58
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.35–⁠1.491.20, 0.88–⁠1.93
ManagerNeil McCann (25)John McGlynn (47)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackKilmarnock1.17, 8thFalkirk1.18, 7thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.62, 12thFalkirk1.44, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctKilmarnock attack: 1.17Falkirk attack: 1.181.181.17FalkirkKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctKilmarnock defence: 1.62Falkirk defence: 1.441.621.44

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockFalkirk
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−15%+53%−9%+29%
Counter-attacks−69%+102%−84%−28%
Set pieces−25%+31%−53%+32%
Penalties−100%−43%−43%−100%
Headers−44%+116%−61%−44%
Left side−14%+49%−48%+11%
Centre−33%+101%−34%+15%
Right side−20%−15%average+43%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdFalkirk concededLeft side−14%+43%Centre−33%+15%Right side−20%+11%Open play−15%+29%Counter-attacks−69%−28%Set pieces−25%+32%Headers−44%−44%

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−48%−15%Centre−34%+101%Right sideaverage+49%Open play−9%+53%Counter-attacks−84%+102%Set pieces−53%+31%Headers−61%+116%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockFalkirk

1.10xG1.12
2.34xG against1.78
43%Possession46%
10.9Shots11.4
18.2Shots against16.0
4.2Shots on target3.3
2.0Big chances1.4
21.6Touches in the opposition box23.2
393Passes396
77%Pass accuracy76%
4.7Corners4.3
39%Field tilt49%
36.9Final-third entries38.5
10.5Box entries9.8
16.5Passes per defensive action12.6

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level311.082.19
Ahead191.332.28
Behind401.022.47

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level391.431.47
Ahead281.091.92
Behind240.652.12

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.281–4
16–300.090.501–3
31–450.180.412–5
46–600.240.424–3
61–750.200.251–2
76–900.200.471–3

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.153–3
16–300.080.410–2
31–450.260.363–1
46–600.110.211–1
61–750.210.312–0
76–900.290.340–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTStryjek 6Ferrie 3Ring 3Brandon 3Kamara 2McCarthy 6Schilte-Brown 1Stanger 8Yfeko 2Deas 1Schjønning-L… 9Schjønning-LarsenTshibola 4O'Hara 2Lowery 8Rice 3Ring 1Ring 4Kiltie 2McCarthy 1John-Jules 4Kiltie 3Lowery 1Hugill 4Kiltie 4Cleșcenco 1Hugill 4John-Jules 4Daniëls 14-2-3-1 in 2 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 9Strain 9Neilson 7Meļņiks 2Henderson 9McCann 7Tanser 2Barbrook 8McMillan 1Spencer 7Krauhaus 1Sibbald 1Ross 6Fodrey 1Doherty 1Krauhaus 7Yeats 2Eames 5Ross 2Fodrey 1Murrell 6Parkinson 2MacIver 14-2-3-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
28 February 2026Falkirk5–1KilmarnockxG 3.14–0.39
20 December 2025Kilmarnock0–1FalkirkxG 1.19–1.46
1 November 2025Falkirk3–1KilmarnockxG 2.08–0.43

3 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 0, Falkirk won 3, and 0 were drawn. Goals 2–9 and xG 0.67–2.23 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kiltie9776300.350.18
John-Jules8560100.250.12
Hugill9810110.240.04
Ring8623000.070.18

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Murrell6470400.600.03
Strain9810040.070.16
Barbrook8675000.110.09
Ross8647110.090.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.