Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Motherwell v Falkirk

Saturday 27 February 2027, 15:00 · Fir Park · Round 29

Forecast

MotherwellFalkirk
Expected goals1.661.03
Win51%23%
Expected Points1.800.94
Clean sheet36%19%

Motherwell 51%Draw 26%Falkirk 23%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 53%.

Falkirk goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+7%6%4%1%6%2%5%2%5%5%3%2%2%1%11%12%9%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Motherwell

  1. L2–317 OctKilmarnock (A)xG 3.37–1.64
  2. L0–211 OctCeltic (H)xG 1.10–2.85
  3. L1–219 SepDundee FC (A)xG 1.10–1.38
  4. L0–415 SepAberdeen (H)xG 0.85–0.90
  5. L0–15 SepRangers (A)xG 0.70–4.29
  6. W3–02 SepDundee United (H)xG 2.39–0.16

Falkirk

  1. W2–117 OctHibernian (A)xG 0.74–1.35
  2. L1–210 OctDundee FC (H)xG 1.97–1.41
  3. D1–119 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.29–0.94
  4. W2–115 SepHearts (H)xG 2.14–1.79
  5. D1–15 SepDundee United (A)xG 1.27–2.66
  6. L1–22 SepRangers (H)xG 1.00–1.57

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

MotherwellFalkirk
Position10th9th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠2–⁠52–⁠3–⁠4
Points8 (0.89 per game)9 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.400.98
Goals11–⁠169–⁠12
xG per game1.71–⁠1.851.12–⁠1.78
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.40–⁠1.110.75, 1.42–⁠1.58
Away: points, xG per game0.80, 1.96–⁠2.431.20, 0.88–⁠1.93
ManagerAlfred Johansson (9)John McGlynn (47)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackMotherwell1.33, 4thFalkirk1.18, 7thDefence (lower is better)Motherwell1.32, 5thFalkirk1.44, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctMotherwell attack: 1.33Falkirk attack: 1.181.331.18FalkirkMotherwellDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctMotherwell defence: 1.32Falkirk defence: 1.441.441.32

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

MotherwellFalkirk
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+23%+3%−9%+29%
Counter-attacks+12%+74%−84%−28%
Set pieces−48%−11%−53%+32%
Penalties+14%+71%−43%−100%
Headers−41%−13%−61%−44%
Left side−39%−14%−48%+11%
Centre+9%+1%−34%+15%
Right side+49%+40%average+43%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdFalkirk concededLeft side−39%+43%Centre+9%+15%Right side+49%+11%Open play+23%+29%Counter-attacks+12%−28%Set pieces−48%+32%Headers−41%−44%

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdMotherwell concededLeft side−48%+40%Centre−34%+1%Right sideaverage−14%Open play−9%+3%Counter-attacks−84%+74%Set pieces−53%−11%Headers−61%−13%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

MotherwellFalkirk

1.71xG1.12
1.85xG against1.78
57%Possession46%
14.2Shots11.4
16.3Shots against16.0
4.7Shots on target3.3
2.6Big chances1.4
24.9Touches in the opposition box23.2
561Passes396
87%Pass accuracy76%
4.9Corners4.3
59%Field tilt49%
50.8Final-third entries38.5
14.1Box entries9.8
14.8Passes per defensive action12.6

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level352.001.50
Ahead152.331.42
Behind401.232.32

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level391.431.47
Ahead281.091.92
Behind240.652.12

xG by period

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.211–3
16–300.420.303–1
31–450.280.252–5
46–600.270.441–4
61–750.240.292–1
76–900.200.362–2

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.153–3
16–300.080.410–2
31–450.260.363–1
46–600.110.211–1
61–750.210.312–0
76–900.290.340–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Motherwell

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTPaulsen 9Sparrow 9Girdwood-Rei… 4Girdwood-ReichKnight-Lebel 3O'Donnell 2Moormann 9Longelo 8Williams 1Fadinger 9Priestman 2Hodge 6Levitt 1Maswanhise 5Vogt 3Kanga 1Lowry 5Charles-Cook 3Booth 1Said 5Longelo 1Houlden 1Houlden 3Maswanhise 2Said 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (2), 4-2-2-2 (1)

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 9Strain 9Neilson 7Meļņiks 2Henderson 9McCann 7Tanser 2Barbrook 8McMillan 1Spencer 7Krauhaus 1Sibbald 1Ross 6Fodrey 1Doherty 1Krauhaus 7Yeats 2Eames 5Ross 2Fodrey 1Murrell 6Parkinson 2MacIver 14-2-3-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
9 August 2026Motherwell0–0FalkirkxG 1.27–0.55
2 May 2026Falkirk1–0MotherwellxG 2.42–1.33
4 April 2026Motherwell2–3FalkirkxG 1.46–2.06
3 December 2025Falkirk0–0MotherwellxG 0.57–0.47
18 October 2025Motherwell1–2FalkirkxG 1.01–1.35

5 league meetings since 2020/21: Motherwell won 0, Falkirk won 3, and 2 were drawn. Goals 3–6 and xG 1.11–1.39 per game.

Key players

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Maswanhise7581120.530.15
Lowry7602310.300.23
Longelo9746000.070.28
Said6533100.160.18

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Murrell6470400.600.03
Strain9810040.070.16
Barbrook8675000.110.09
Ross8647110.090.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.