Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Falkirk v Dundee FC

Saturday 20 February 2027, 15:00 · The Falkirk Stadium · Round 28

Forecast

FalkirkDundee FC
Expected goals1.551.09
Win48%26%
Expected Points1.691.04
Clean sheet34%21%

Falkirk 48%Draw 27%Dundee FC 26%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Dundee FC goalsFalkirk goals0123456+0123456+8%7%4%2%7%2%9%5%2%4%5%3%1%2%2%1%10%13%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Falkirk

  1. W2–117 OctHibernian (A)xG 0.74–1.35
  2. L1–210 OctDundee FC (H)xG 1.97–1.41
  3. D1–119 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.29–0.94
  4. W2–115 SepHearts (H)xG 2.14–1.79
  5. D1–15 SepDundee United (A)xG 1.27–2.66
  6. L1–22 SepRangers (H)xG 1.00–1.57

Dundee FC

  1. D2–217 OctRangers (H)xG 1.77–1.80
  2. W2–110 OctFalkirk (A)xG 1.41–1.97
  3. W2–119 SepMotherwell (H)xG 1.38–1.10
  4. L1–26 SepHearts (A)xG 0.42–1.93
  5. D1–12 SepSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.07–1.08
  6. L1–230 AugHibernian (H)xG 1.03–2.33

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

FalkirkDundee FC
Position9th4th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠3–⁠44–⁠2–⁠3
Points9 (1.00 per game)14 (1.56 per game)
Expected Points per game0.981.21
Goals9–⁠1213–⁠10
xG per game1.12–⁠1.781.31–⁠1.60
Home: points, xG per game0.75, 1.42–⁠1.581.60, 1.62–⁠1.41
Away: points, xG per game1.20, 0.88–⁠1.931.50, 0.94–⁠1.84
ManagerJohn McGlynn (47)Steven Pressley (47)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackFalkirk1.18, 7thDundee FC1.13, 10thDefence (lower is better)Falkirk1.44, 8thDundee FC1.53, 11th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctFalkirk attack: 1.18Dundee FC attack: 1.131.181.13Dundee FCFalkirkDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctFalkirk defence: 1.44Dundee FC defence: 1.531.531.44

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

FalkirkDundee FC
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−9%+29%−30%+16%
Counter-attacks−84%−28%−25%−63%
Set pieces−53%+32%+28%−19%
Penalties−43%−100%−43%+14%
Headers−61%−44%+39%+3%
Left side−48%+11%+14%+18%
Centre−34%+15%−22%−25%
Right sideaverage+43%−37%+15%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdDundee FC concededLeft side−48%+15%Centre−34%−25%Right sideaverage+18%Open play−9%+16%Counter-attacks−84%−63%Set pieces−53%−19%Headers−61%+3%

Dundee FC attacking

Dundee FC createdFalkirk concededLeft side+14%+43%Centre−22%+15%Right side−37%+11%Open play−30%+29%Counter-attacks−25%−28%Set pieces+28%+32%Headers+39%−44%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

FalkirkDundee FC

1.12xG1.31
1.78xG against1.60
46%Possession38%
11.4Shots12.3
16.0Shots against19.1
3.3Shots on target4.7
1.4Big chances2.7
23.2Touches in the opposition box19.1
396Passes336
76%Pass accuracy73%
4.3Corners4.9
49%Field tilt25%
38.5Final-third entries26.9
9.8Box entries9.5
12.6Passes per defensive action19.6

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level391.431.47
Ahead281.091.92
Behind240.652.12

Dundee FC

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.451.49
Ahead301.211.70
Behind151.091.70

xG by period

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.153–3
16–300.080.410–2
31–450.260.363–1
46–600.110.211–1
61–750.210.312–0
76–900.290.340–5

Dundee FC

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.070.151–0
16–300.330.162–1
31–450.200.363–3
46–600.200.173–2
61–750.190.361–1
76–900.330.403–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 9Strain 9Neilson 7Meļņiks 2Henderson 9McCann 7Tanser 2Barbrook 8McMillan 1Spencer 7Krauhaus 1Sibbald 1Ross 6Fodrey 1Doherty 1Krauhaus 7Yeats 2Eames 5Ross 2Fodrey 1Murrell 6Parkinson 2MacIver 14-2-3-1 in every start

Dundee FC

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTGoodman 9D. Wright 8Halliday 1Astley 9O. Bevan 9Odutayo 5Samuels 4J. Bevan 7Forrest 1Robertson 1Finnigan 6Jones 3Hamilton 9Forrest 4Reilly 4Moorhouse 1Fink 5Hay 2Forrest 1Westley 7Murray 24-4-2 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (6), 4-2-3-1 (3)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
10 October 2026Falkirk1–2Dundee FCxG 1.97–1.41
11 February 2026Falkirk1–0Dundee FCxG 0.98–1.58
27 December 2025Dundee FC1–0FalkirkxG 1.24–1.33
25 October 2025Falkirk2–1Dundee FCxG 1.08–1.21

4 league meetings since 2020/21: Falkirk won 2, Dundee FC won 2, and 0 were drawn. Goals 4–4 and xG 1.34–1.36 per game.

Key players

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Murrell6470400.600.03
Strain9810040.070.16
Barbrook8675000.110.09
Ross8647110.090.10

Dundee FC

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Westley7537300.570.04
Forrest6531010.080.11
J. Bevan7587110.120.05
D. Wright8727110.020.12

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.