Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Motherwell v Celtic

Wednesday 3 February 2027, 19:45 · Fir Park · Round 26

Forecast

MotherwellCeltic
Expected goals1.011.90
Win19%58%
Expected Points0.811.96
Clean sheet15%36%

Motherwell 19%Draw 23%Celtic 58%

Most likely score 1–1, 11%. Both sides score 55%.

Celtic goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+6%6%3%1%5%6%3%1%3%5%5%3%2%2%2%1%10%10%11%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Motherwell

  1. L2–317 OctKilmarnock (A)xG 3.37–1.64
  2. L0–211 OctCeltic (H)xG 1.10–2.85
  3. L1–219 SepDundee FC (A)xG 1.10–1.38
  4. L0–415 SepAberdeen (H)xG 0.85–0.90
  5. L0–15 SepRangers (A)xG 0.70–4.29
  6. W3–02 SepDundee United (H)xG 2.39–0.16

Celtic

  1. W7–118 OctHearts (H)xG 4.23–1.20
  2. W2–011 OctMotherwell (A)xG 2.85–1.10
  3. L0–120 SepRangers (H)xG 0.39–1.81
  4. W1–09 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.80–0.69
  5. W2–15 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 3.19–1.95
  6. W3–02 SepAberdeen (H)xG 2.67–0.68

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

MotherwellCeltic
Position10th1st
Played99
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠2–⁠58–⁠0–⁠1
Points8 (0.89 per game)24 (2.67 per game)
Expected Points per game1.402.31
Goals11–⁠1623–⁠5
xG per game1.71–⁠1.852.93–⁠1.05
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.40–⁠1.112.40, 2.60–⁠0.95
Away: points, xG per game0.80, 1.96–⁠2.433.00, 3.33–⁠1.18
ManagerAlfred Johansson (9)Martin O'Neill (27)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackMotherwell1.33, 4thCeltic2.17, 1stDefence (lower is better)Motherwell1.32, 5thCeltic0.88, 1st

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctMotherwell attack: 1.33Celtic attack: 2.172.171.33CelticMotherwellDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctMotherwell defence: 1.32Celtic defence: 0.881.320.88

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

MotherwellCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+23%+3%+121%−48%
Counter-attacks+12%+74%+195%−35%
Set pieces−48%−11%−8%+5%
Penalties+14%+71%−100%−43%
Headers−41%−13%+164%−27%
Left side−39%−14%+159%−62%
Centre+9%+1%+87%−13%
Right side+49%+40%+61%−42%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdCeltic concededLeft side−39%−42%Centre+9%−13%Right side+49%−62%Open play+23%−48%Counter-attacks+12%−35%Set pieces−48%+5%Headers−41%−27%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdMotherwell concededLeft side+159%+40%Centre+87%+1%Right side+61%−14%Open play+121%+3%Counter-attacks+195%+74%Set pieces−8%−11%Headers+164%−13%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

MotherwellCeltic

1.71xG2.93
1.85xG against1.05
57%Possession60%
14.2Shots20.3
16.3Shots against11.9
4.7Shots on target9.2
2.6Big chances5.2
24.9Touches in the opposition box38.2
561Passes605
87%Pass accuracy88%
4.9Corners9.0
59%Field tilt68%
50.8Final-third entries62.3
14.1Box entries24.5
14.8Passes per defensive action13.0

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level352.001.50
Ahead152.331.42
Behind401.232.32

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level242.231.23
Ahead573.340.98
Behind102.161.05

xG by period

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.211–3
16–300.420.303–1
31–450.280.252–5
46–600.270.441–4
61–750.240.292–1
76–900.200.362–2

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.400.126–0
16–300.400.251–1
31–450.710.247–2
46–600.570.076–1
61–750.310.202–1
76–900.540.161–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Motherwell

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTPaulsen 9Sparrow 9Girdwood-Rei… 4Girdwood-ReichKnight-Lebel 3O'Donnell 2Moormann 9Longelo 8Williams 1Fadinger 9Priestman 2Hodge 6Levitt 1Maswanhise 5Vogt 3Kanga 1Lowry 5Charles-Cook 3Booth 1Said 5Longelo 1Houlden 1Houlden 3Maswanhise 2Said 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (2), 4-2-2-2 (1)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTSinisalo 8Johnstone 1Donovan 6Johnston 2Carter-Vickers 1Carter-Vickers 5Murray 3Trusty 6Scales 4Tierney 6Scales 3McGregor 8Baur 6Oxlade-Chamberlain 2Engels 2Hassan 5Durán 3McCowan 1Nygren 7Donovan 1Sørensen 1Yang 5Tounekti 2Nygren 1Durán 5Høgh 44-2-3-1 in 7 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 3-4-3 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
11 October 2026Motherwell0–2CelticxG 1.10–2.85
13 May 2026Motherwell2–3CelticxG 1.24–1.38
14 March 2026Celtic3–1MotherwellxG 2.12–0.64
30 December 2025Motherwell2–0CelticxG 1.40–0.59
5 October 2025Celtic3–2MotherwellxG 2.62–1.39
2 February 2025Motherwell1–3CelticxG 0.52–3.26

21 league meetings since 2020/21: Motherwell won 1, Celtic won 18, and 2 were drawn. Goals 16–54 and xG 0.74–2.28 per game.

Key players

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Maswanhise7581120.530.15
Lowry7602310.300.23
Longelo9746000.070.28
Said6533100.160.18

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nygren8654630.730.23
Durán8591550.560.33
Tierney6459130.310.44
Baur6550100.290.19

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.