Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Motherwell v Kilmarnock

Saturday 5 December 2026, 15:00 · Fir Park · Round 17

Forecast

MotherwellKilmarnock
Expected goals1.861.02
Win56%20%
Expected Points1.930.83
Clean sheet36%16%

Motherwell 56%Draw 24%Kilmarnock 20%

Most likely score 1–1, 11%. Both sides score 55%.

Kilmarnock goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+6%5%3%1%5%2%5%2%6%6%3%1%3%3%1%1%1%10%11%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Motherwell

  1. L2–317 OctKilmarnock (A)xG 3.37–1.64
  2. L0–211 OctCeltic (H)xG 1.10–2.85
  3. L1–219 SepDundee FC (A)xG 1.10–1.38
  4. L0–415 SepAberdeen (H)xG 0.85–0.90
  5. L0–15 SepRangers (A)xG 0.70–4.29
  6. W3–02 SepDundee United (H)xG 2.39–0.16

Kilmarnock

  1. W3–217 OctMotherwell (H)xG 1.64–3.37
  2. L1–310 OctRangers (A)xG 1.15–1.42
  3. D1–119 SepHearts (H)xG 0.39–1.92
  4. W1–015 SepHibernian (A)xG 2.21–1.45
  5. D0–05 SepAberdeen (A)xG 1.11–1.08
  6. L0–12 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.41–0.85

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

MotherwellKilmarnock
Position10th11th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠2–⁠52–⁠2–⁠5
Points8 (0.89 per game)8 (0.89 per game)
Expected Points per game1.400.77
Goals11–⁠1610–⁠20
xG per game1.71–⁠1.851.10–⁠2.34
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.40–⁠1.110.80, 0.91–⁠3.01
Away: points, xG per game0.80, 1.96–⁠2.431.00, 1.35–⁠1.49
ManagerAlfred Johansson (9)Neil McCann (25)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackMotherwell1.33, 4thKilmarnock1.17, 8thDefence (lower is better)Motherwell1.32, 5thKilmarnock1.62, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctMotherwell attack: 1.33Kilmarnock attack: 1.171.331.17KilmarnockMotherwellDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctMotherwell defence: 1.32Kilmarnock defence: 1.621.621.32

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

MotherwellKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+23%+3%−15%+53%
Counter-attacks+12%+74%−69%+102%
Set pieces−48%−11%−25%+31%
Penalties+14%+71%−100%−43%
Headers−41%−13%−44%+116%
Left side−39%−14%−14%+49%
Centre+9%+1%−33%+101%
Right side+49%+40%−20%−15%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−39%−15%Centre+9%+101%Right side+49%+49%Open play+23%+53%Counter-attacks+12%+102%Set pieces−48%+31%Headers−41%+116%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdMotherwell concededLeft side−14%+40%Centre−33%+1%Right side−20%−14%Open play−15%+3%Counter-attacks−69%+74%Set pieces−25%−11%Headers−44%−13%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

MotherwellKilmarnock

1.71xG1.10
1.85xG against2.34
57%Possession43%
14.2Shots10.9
16.3Shots against18.2
4.7Shots on target4.2
2.6Big chances2.0
24.9Touches in the opposition box21.6
561Passes393
87%Pass accuracy77%
4.9Corners4.7
59%Field tilt39%
50.8Final-third entries36.9
14.1Box entries10.5
14.8Passes per defensive action16.5

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level352.001.50
Ahead152.331.42
Behind401.232.32

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level311.082.19
Ahead191.332.28
Behind401.022.47

xG by period

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.211–3
16–300.420.303–1
31–450.280.252–5
46–600.270.441–4
61–750.240.292–1
76–900.200.362–2

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.281–4
16–300.090.501–3
31–450.180.412–5
46–600.240.424–3
61–750.200.251–2
76–900.200.471–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Motherwell

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTPaulsen 9Sparrow 9Girdwood-Rei… 4Girdwood-ReichKnight-Lebel 3O'Donnell 2Moormann 9Longelo 8Williams 1Fadinger 9Priestman 2Hodge 6Levitt 1Maswanhise 5Vogt 3Kanga 1Lowry 5Charles-Cook 3Booth 1Said 5Longelo 1Houlden 1Houlden 3Maswanhise 2Said 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (2), 4-2-2-2 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTStryjek 6Ferrie 3Ring 3Brandon 3Kamara 2McCarthy 6Schilte-Brown 1Stanger 8Yfeko 2Deas 1Schjønning-L… 9Schjønning-LarsenTshibola 4O'Hara 2Lowery 8Rice 3Ring 1Ring 4Kiltie 2McCarthy 1John-Jules 4Kiltie 3Lowery 1Hugill 4Kiltie 4Cleșcenco 1Hugill 4John-Jules 4Daniëls 14-2-3-1 in 2 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
17 October 2026Kilmarnock3–2MotherwellxG 1.64–3.37
24 January 2026Motherwell4–0KilmarnockxG 2.72–0.46
22 November 2025Kilmarnock1–3MotherwellxG 1.73–2.24
30 August 2025Motherwell2–2KilmarnockxG 1.76–1.20
14 May 2025Motherwell3–0KilmarnockxG 2.57–0.53
5 April 2025Kilmarnock2–0MotherwellxG 1.22–0.18

19 league meetings since 2020/21: Motherwell won 7, Kilmarnock won 6, and 6 were drawn. Goals 28–23 and xG 1.40–1.13 per game.

Key players

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Maswanhise7581120.530.15
Lowry7602310.300.23
Longelo9746000.070.28
Said6533100.160.18

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kiltie9776300.350.18
John-Jules8560100.250.12
Hugill9810110.240.04
Ring8623000.070.18

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.