Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Kilmarnock 3–2 Motherwell

Saturday 17 October 2026, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 9 · Half-time 1–1 · Referee Calum Scott · Attendance 5,137

Kilmarnock Kiltie 2', 70', John-Jules 60'

Motherwell Lowry 17', Houlden 56'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockMotherwell
Goals32
xG1.643.37
Expected Points0.452.41

Kilmarnock 10%Draw 15%Motherwell 75%

Most likely score 1–3, 10%. Final score 3–2, 3%.

Motherwell goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+1%3%4%4%2%2%6%5%2%2%6%4%2%1%3%5%4%2%1%1%10%8%9%7%Final score

Own goals have no xG. How Expected Points work.

xG race

012340153045607590HTBrandon on for Kamara, 33'Tshibola on for Rice, 35'Daniëls on for John-Jules and Owen on for Kiltie, 77'Kanga on for Lowry, Girdwood-Reich on for Moormann, and Bjørgolfsson on for Houlden, 68'Levitt on for Fadinger, 75'Koutroumbis on for Sparrow, 81'Kiltie 2'John-Jules 60'Kiltie 70'Lowry 17'Houlden 56'Motherwell 3.37Kilmarnock 1.64012340153045607590HTBrandon on for Kamara, 33'Tshibola on for Rice, 35'Daniëls on for John-Jules and Owen on for Kiltie, 77'Kanga on for Lowry, Girdwood-Reich on for Moormann, and Bjørgolfsson on for Houlden, 68'Levitt on for Fadinger, 75'Koutroumbis on for Sparrow, 81'Kiltie 2'John-Jules 60'Kiltie 70'Lowry 17'Houlden 56'3.371.64KilmarnockMotherwell

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockMotherwell

1.64 +0.60xG3.37 +1.86
2.23 +1.28xG on target3.82 +2.55
16 +6Shots16 +2
6 +2.0Shots on target7 +2.6
5 +3.4Big chances6 +3.9
33 +13Touches in the opposition box27 +2
52% +10Possession48% −10
514 +136Passes480 −91
81% +4Pass accuracy80% −8
5 +0.4Corners3 −2.1
6 −10Tackles24 +9
8 −0.4Interceptions11 +4.8
15 −13Clearances22 −4
6 +2.2Saves4 +0.1
9 −3Fouls8 −2
1 +0.2Offsides3 +1.8

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

John-Jules 41', 0.18 xGRing 49', 0.14 xGOwen 78', 0.09 xGJohn-Jules 74', 0.08 xGKiltie 2', 0.07 xGHugill 4', 0.07 xGHugill 80', 0.06 xGLowery 45', 0.05 xGHugill 9', 0.04 xGJohn-Jules 41', 0.04 xGRing 51', 0.04 xGJohn-Jules 52', 0.03 xGKiltie 60', 0.03 xGKiltie 69', 0.45 xG, goalKiltie 2', 0.24 xG, goalJohn-Jules 58', 0.06 xG, goal10%0.17 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.17 xG, 0 goals63%1.03 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 1.03 xG, 3 goals16%0.26 xGWide in the box: 6 shots, 0.26 xG, 0 goals10%0.17 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Motherwell

Houlden 17', 0.58 xGHoulden 56', 0.52 xGHoulden 22', 0.44 xGHoulden 20', 0.17 xGLowry 32', 0.14 xGMaswanhise 40', 0.12 xGSaid 34', 0.08 xGKoutroumbis 90+4', 0.06 xGHoulden 27', 0.05 xGLowry 6', 0.04 xGMaswanhise 23', 0.04 xGHodge 85', 0.03 xGSaid 11', 0.02 xGHodge 32', 0.01 xGHoulden 56', 0.76 xG, goalLowry 17', 0.32 xG, goal55%1.86 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 1.86 xG, 1 goal39%1.32 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 1.32 xG, 1 goal2%0.06 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 0 goals3%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals1%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockMotherwell

1.39 13 shots, 3 goalsOpen play2.77 13 shots, 2 goals
0.19 2 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.56 2 shots, 0 goals
0.05 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.05 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
51 min (54%) · Kilmarnock 1.26, Motherwell 2.33 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
39 min (41%) · Kilmarnock 0.33, Motherwell 1.04 xG
Motherwell ahead
4 min (4%) · Kilmarnock 0.06, Motherwell 0.00 xG

Line-ups

123414214918810119FerrieKamaraMcCarthyStangerSchjønning-LarsenRiceLoweryRingJohn-JulesKiltieHugillYellow cardGoalGoalGoal33'35'77'77'Kilmarnock 4-2-3-1Neil McCann17254587118111947PaulsenSparrowO'DonnellMoormannLongeloFadingerHodgeMaswanhiseLowrySaidHouldenGoalGoal81'68'75'68'68'Motherwell 4-2-3-1Alfred Johansson

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 33' Brandon for Kamara · 2 assists
  • 35' Tshibola for Rice
  • 77' Daniëls for John-Jules
  • 77' Owen for Kiltie

Motherwell substitutes

  • 68' Girdwood-Reich for Moormann
  • 68' Bjørgolfsson for Houlden
  • 68' Kanga for Lowry
  • 75' Levitt for Fadinger
  • 81' Koutroumbis for Sparrow

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
FerrieGK900.000.0000
KamaraRB330.000.0112
McCarthyCB900.000.0006
Stanger CB900.000.0107
Schjønning-LarsenLB900.000.0304
RiceDM350.000.0001
LoweryDM900.050.0512
RingRW900.180.1413
John-JulesAM7710.370.1941
KiltieLW7720.790.1423
HugillST900.160.0320
BrandonDF5720.000.2233
TshibolaMF550.000.0401
DaniëlsFW130.000.0000
OwenFW130.090.0110

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
PaulsenGK900.000.0001
SparrowRB810.000.2114
O'DonnellCB900.000.0109
MoormannCB680.000.0108
LongeloLB900.000.55210
FadingerDM750.000.0515
HodgeDM900.040.05011
MaswanhiseRW900.160.7022
LowryAM6810.500.1422
SaidLW900.100.1431
HouldenST6812.510.0102
Girdwood-ReichDF220.000.0002
BjørgolfssonFW220.000.0000
KangaFW220.000.0201
LevittMF150.000.0002
KoutroumbisDF90.060.0003

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions).

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackKilmarnock1.17 → 1.16Motherwell1.30 → 1.33Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.58 → 1.62Motherwell1.32 → 1.32

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six10%15%+5
11th18%17%−1
Bottom28%20%−8
Motherwell
Top six52%43%−9
11th5%7%+2
Bottom3%4%+1
Hibernian
Top six52%54%+2
Bottom3%3%0
Falkirk
Top six21%21%0
11th14%13%−1
Bottom15%17%+2

From the forecast before the match (17 October 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points. How the forecasts work.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockMotherwell
Expected goals1.321.39
Win35%38%
Expected Points1.321.41
Clean sheet25%27%

Kilmarnock 35%Draw 27%Motherwell 38%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 56%.

Motherwell goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+7%9%6%3%1%8%8%4%1%6%8%6%3%3%4%2%1%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 17 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawMotherwell win
Kilmarnock
Top six10%15%8%6%
11th18%17%19%19%
Bottom28%20%30%34%
Motherwell
Top six52%43%50%63%
11th5%7%5%3%
Bottom3%4%3%1%
Hibernian
Top six52%54%51%50%
Bottom3%3%3%3%
Falkirk
Top six21%21%22%21%
11th14%13%15%15%
Bottom15%17%15%13%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L1–310 OctRangers (A)xG 1.15–1.42
  2. D1–119 SepHearts (H)xG 0.39–1.92
  3. W1–015 SepHibernian (A)xG 2.21–1.45
  4. D0–05 SepAberdeen (A)xG 1.11–1.08
  5. L0–12 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.41–0.85
  6. L0–429 AugDundee United (H)xG 1.13–3.42

Motherwell

  1. L0–211 OctCeltic (H)xG 1.10–2.85
  2. L1–219 SepDundee FC (A)xG 1.10–1.38
  3. L0–415 SepAberdeen (H)xG 0.85–0.90
  4. L0–15 SepRangers (A)xG 0.70–4.29
  5. W3–02 SepDundee United (H)xG 2.39–0.16
  6. D3–330 AugSt. Mirren (A)xG 2.45–2.92

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockMotherwell
Position12th9th
Played88
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠2–⁠52–⁠2–⁠4
Points5 (0.62 per game)8 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game0.811.27
Goals7–⁠189–⁠13
xG per game1.04–⁠2.211.51–⁠1.87
Home: points, xG per game0.25, 0.73–⁠2.921.00, 1.40–⁠1.11
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.35–⁠1.491.00, 1.61–⁠2.63
ManagerNeil McCann (24)Alfred Johansson (8)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackKilmarnock1.17, 8thMotherwell1.30, 5thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.58, 12thMotherwell1.32, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctKilmarnock attack: 1.17Motherwell attack: 1.301.301.17MotherwellKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctKilmarnock defence: 1.58Motherwell defence: 1.321.581.32

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockMotherwell
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−20%+41%+6%+1%
Counter-attacks−77%+88%−12%+81%
Set pieces−15%+48%−42%average
Penalties−100%−40%+20%+80%
Headers−36%+137%−43%−1%
Left side−39%+57%−32%−13%
Centre−23%+80%−31%+19%
Right side−20%−5%+58%+22%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdMotherwell concededLeft side−39%+22%Centre−23%+19%Right side−20%−13%Open play−20%+1%Counter-attacks−77%+81%Set pieces−15%averageHeaders−36%−1%

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−32%−5%Centre−31%+80%Right side+58%+57%Open play+6%+41%Counter-attacks−12%+88%Set pieces−42%+48%Headers−43%+137%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockMotherwell

1.04xG1.51
2.21xG against1.87
42%Possession58%
10.2Shots14.0
18.5Shots against16.4
4.0Shots on target4.4
1.6Big chances2.1
20.1Touches in the opposition box24.6
378Passes571
77%Pass accuracy88%
4.6Corners5.1
39%Field tilt59%
36.9Final-third entries50.8
10.5Box entries14.1
16.5Passes per defensive action14.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level280.821.77
Ahead171.462.19
Behind451.012.49

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level331.601.37
Ahead172.361.40
Behind401.082.49

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.300–4
16–300.100.371–2
31–450.170.422–5
46–600.230.323–2
61–750.170.280–2
76–900.200.521–3

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.320.181–2
16–300.280.342–1
31–450.270.242–5
46–600.140.460–3
61–750.280.262–0
76–900.220.392–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Unavailable

Kilmarnock

PlayerReasonExpected backStartsMin
StryjekInjuryEarly December 20266540

Motherwell

PlayerReasonExpected backStartsMin
WilliamsInjuryLate October 20261151
PriestmanInjuryMid October 20262172
HendryInjuryMid October 202600

Injured, suspended, and otherwise unavailable players as listed before the match, with their league starts and minutes this season.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTStryjek 6Ferrie 2Ring 3Brandon 3Kamara 1McCarthy 5Schilte-Brown 1Stanger 7Yfeko 2Deas 1Schjønning-L… 8Schjønning-LarsenKiltie 2Ring 2McCarthy 1Tshibola 2Ring 2O'Hara 2Lowery 7Rice 2Kiltie 5Tshibola 2Cleșcenco 1John-Jules 7Daniëls 1Hugill 84-4-2 in 2 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Motherwell

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTPaulsen 8Sparrow 8Girdwood-Rei… 4Girdwood-ReichKnight-Lebel 3O'Donnell 1Moormann 8Longelo 7Williams 1Fadinger 8Priestman 2Hodge 5Levitt 1Maswanhise 4Vogt 3Kanga 1Lowry 4Charles-Cook 3Booth 1Said 4Longelo 1Houlden 1Houlden 2Maswanhise 2Lowry 14-2-3-1 in 5 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (5), 4-4-2 (2), 4-2-2-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
24 January 2026Motherwell4–0KilmarnockxG 2.72–0.46
22 November 2025Kilmarnock1–3MotherwellxG 1.73–2.24
30 August 2025Motherwell2–2KilmarnockxG 1.76–1.20
14 May 2025Motherwell3–0KilmarnockxG 2.57–0.53
5 April 2025Kilmarnock2–0MotherwellxG 1.22–0.18
8 January 2025Kilmarnock0–0MotherwellxG 1.72–0.39

18 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 5, Motherwell won 7, and 6 were drawn. Goals 20–26 and xG 1.10–1.29 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kiltie8699100.290.18
John-Jules7483000.220.10
Hugill8720110.250.04
Ring7533000.050.18

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Maswanhise6491120.600.05
Lowry6534210.260.23
Longelo8656000.080.24
Fadinger8689100.180.06

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.