Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Dundee FC v Falkirk

Saturday 5 December 2026, 15:00 · Dens Park · Round 17

Forecast

Dundee FCFalkirk
Expected goals1.411.20
Win41%31%
Expected Points1.511.21
Clean sheet30%24%

Dundee FC 41%Draw 27%Falkirk 31%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Falkirk goalsDundee FC goals0123456+0123456+8%8%5%2%7%3%7%9%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Dundee FC

  1. D2–217 OctRangers (H)xG 1.77–1.80
  2. W2–110 OctFalkirk (A)xG 1.41–1.97
  3. W2–119 SepMotherwell (H)xG 1.38–1.10
  4. L1–26 SepHearts (A)xG 0.42–1.93
  5. D1–12 SepSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.07–1.08
  6. L1–230 AugHibernian (H)xG 1.03–2.33

Falkirk

  1. W2–117 OctHibernian (A)xG 0.74–1.35
  2. L1–210 OctDundee FC (H)xG 1.97–1.41
  3. D1–119 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.29–0.94
  4. W2–115 SepHearts (H)xG 2.14–1.79
  5. D1–15 SepDundee United (A)xG 1.27–2.66
  6. L1–22 SepRangers (H)xG 1.00–1.57

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Dundee FCFalkirk
Position4th9th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠2–⁠32–⁠3–⁠4
Points14 (1.56 per game)9 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.210.98
Goals13–⁠109–⁠12
xG per game1.31–⁠1.601.12–⁠1.78
Home: points, xG per game1.60, 1.62–⁠1.410.75, 1.42–⁠1.58
Away: points, xG per game1.50, 0.94–⁠1.841.20, 0.88–⁠1.93
ManagerSteven Pressley (47)John McGlynn (47)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackDundee FC1.13, 10thFalkirk1.18, 7thDefence (lower is better)Dundee FC1.53, 11thFalkirk1.44, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctDundee FC attack: 1.13Falkirk attack: 1.181.181.13FalkirkDundee FCDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctDundee FC defence: 1.53Falkirk defence: 1.441.531.44

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Dundee FCFalkirk
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−30%+16%−9%+29%
Counter-attacks−25%−63%−84%−28%
Set pieces+28%−19%−53%+32%
Penalties−43%+14%−43%−100%
Headers+39%+3%−61%−44%
Left side+14%+18%−48%+11%
Centre−22%−25%−34%+15%
Right side−37%+15%average+43%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Dundee FC attacking

Dundee FC createdFalkirk concededLeft side+14%+43%Centre−22%+15%Right side−37%+11%Open play−30%+29%Counter-attacks−25%−28%Set pieces+28%+32%Headers+39%−44%

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdDundee FC concededLeft side−48%+15%Centre−34%−25%Right sideaverage+18%Open play−9%+16%Counter-attacks−84%−63%Set pieces−53%−19%Headers−61%+3%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Dundee FCFalkirk

1.31xG1.12
1.60xG against1.78
38%Possession46%
12.3Shots11.4
19.1Shots against16.0
4.7Shots on target3.3
2.7Big chances1.4
19.1Touches in the opposition box23.2
336Passes396
73%Pass accuracy76%
4.9Corners4.3
25%Field tilt49%
26.9Final-third entries38.5
9.5Box entries9.8
19.6Passes per defensive action12.6

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Dundee FC

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.451.49
Ahead301.211.70
Behind151.091.70

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level391.431.47
Ahead281.091.92
Behind240.652.12

xG by period

Dundee FC

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.070.151–0
16–300.330.162–1
31–450.200.363–3
46–600.200.173–2
61–750.190.361–1
76–900.330.403–3

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.153–3
16–300.080.410–2
31–450.260.363–1
46–600.110.211–1
61–750.210.312–0
76–900.290.340–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Dundee FC

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTGoodman 9D. Wright 8Halliday 1Astley 9O. Bevan 9Odutayo 5Samuels 4J. Bevan 7Forrest 1Robertson 1Finnigan 6Jones 3Hamilton 9Forrest 4Reilly 4Moorhouse 1Fink 5Hay 2Forrest 1Westley 7Murray 24-4-2 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (6), 4-2-3-1 (3)

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 9Strain 9Neilson 7Meļņiks 2Henderson 9McCann 7Tanser 2Barbrook 8McMillan 1Spencer 7Krauhaus 1Sibbald 1Ross 6Fodrey 1Doherty 1Krauhaus 7Yeats 2Eames 5Ross 2Fodrey 1Murrell 6Parkinson 2MacIver 14-2-3-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
10 October 2026Falkirk1–2Dundee FCxG 1.97–1.41
11 February 2026Falkirk1–0Dundee FCxG 0.98–1.58
27 December 2025Dundee FC1–0FalkirkxG 1.24–1.33
25 October 2025Falkirk2–1Dundee FCxG 1.08–1.21

4 league meetings since 2020/21: Dundee FC won 2, Falkirk won 2, and 0 were drawn. Goals 4–4 and xG 1.36–1.34 per game.

Key players

Dundee FC

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Westley7537300.570.04
Forrest6531010.080.11
J. Bevan7587110.120.05
D. Wright8727110.020.12

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Murrell6470400.600.03
Strain9810040.070.16
Barbrook8675000.110.09
Ross8647110.090.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.