Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Aberdeen v Kilmarnock

Saturday 10 April 2027, 15:00 · Pittodrie Stadium · Round 33

Forecast

AberdeenKilmarnock
Expected goals1.601.11
Win48%26%
Expected Points1.701.04
Clean sheet33%20%

Aberdeen 48%Draw 26%Kilmarnock 26%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 54%.

Kilmarnock goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+7%7%4%2%7%2%9%5%2%5%5%3%1%2%2%1%10%12%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Aberdeen

  1. W3–117 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.83–1.03
  2. L0–111 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.23–1.10
  3. D1–119 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.70–1.40
  4. W4–015 SepMotherwell (A)xG 0.90–0.85
  5. D0–05 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.08–1.11
  6. L0–32 SepCeltic (A)xG 0.68–2.67

Kilmarnock

  1. W3–217 OctMotherwell (H)xG 1.64–3.37
  2. L1–310 OctRangers (A)xG 1.15–1.42
  3. D1–119 SepHearts (H)xG 0.39–1.92
  4. W1–015 SepHibernian (A)xG 2.21–1.45
  5. D0–05 SepAberdeen (A)xG 1.11–1.08
  6. L0–12 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.41–0.85

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

AberdeenKilmarnock
Position7th11th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠2–⁠42–⁠2–⁠5
Points11 (1.22 per game)8 (0.89 per game)
Expected Points per game1.150.77
Goals10–⁠1010–⁠20
xG per game1.24–⁠1.551.10–⁠2.34
Home: points, xG per game1.40, 1.63–⁠1.430.80, 0.91–⁠3.01
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 0.75–⁠1.691.00, 1.35–⁠1.49
ManagerStephen Robinson (18)Neil McCann (25)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackAberdeen1.15, 9thKilmarnock1.17, 8thDefence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.44, 7thKilmarnock1.62, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctAberdeen attack: 1.15Kilmarnock attack: 1.171.171.15KilmarnockAberdeenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctAberdeen defence: 1.44Kilmarnock defence: 1.621.621.44

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

AberdeenKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−43%−16%−15%+53%
Counter-attacks−68%+11%−69%+102%
Set pieces+42%−14%−25%+31%
Penalties+14%+71%−100%−43%
Headers+49%−31%−44%+116%
Left side−57%+2%−14%+49%
Centre−18%−39%−33%+101%
Right side−10%+19%−20%−15%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−57%−15%Centre−18%+101%Right side−10%+49%Open play−43%+53%Counter-attacks−68%+102%Set pieces+42%+31%Headers+49%+116%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdAberdeen concededLeft side−14%+19%Centre−33%−39%Right side−20%+2%Open play−15%−16%Counter-attacks−69%+11%Set pieces−25%−14%Headers−44%−31%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

AberdeenKilmarnock

1.24xG1.10
1.55xG against2.34
46%Possession43%
12.1Shots10.9
15.6Shots against18.2
3.3Shots on target4.2
1.8Big chances2.0
21.9Touches in the opposition box21.6
385Passes393
77%Pass accuracy77%
5.7Corners4.7
42%Field tilt39%
38.6Final-third entries36.9
12.5Box entries10.5
14.0Passes per defensive action16.5

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level371.391.54
Ahead191.071.41
Behind341.171.64

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level311.082.19
Ahead191.332.28
Behind401.022.47

xG by period

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.030.191–3
16–300.110.261–0
31–450.120.371–4
46–600.300.152–1
61–750.150.311–2
76–900.520.264–0

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.281–4
16–300.090.501–3
31–450.180.412–5
46–600.240.424–3
61–750.200.251–2
76–900.200.471–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Aberdeen

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTMüller 9Cadden 8Lyons 1Mayo 7Milne 2Knoester 5Guinness… 1Guinness-WalkerOlusanya 1Molloy 4Happe 4Guinness… 8Guinness-WalkerCadden 1Ronan 5Olusanya 2Lyons 2Aremu 8Briedl 2Marshall 3Smith 2Yogane 1Olusanya 3Mouloua 2Ntelo 1Nisbet 9Yogane 35-3-2 in 3 of 9 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (3), 4-1-3-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTStryjek 6Ferrie 3Ring 3Brandon 3Kamara 2McCarthy 6Schilte-Brown 1Stanger 8Yfeko 2Deas 1Schjønning-L… 9Schjønning-LarsenTshibola 4O'Hara 2Lowery 8Rice 3Ring 1Ring 4Kiltie 2McCarthy 1John-Jules 4Kiltie 3Lowery 1Hugill 4Kiltie 4Cleșcenco 1Hugill 4John-Jules 4Daniëls 14-2-3-1 in 2 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
5 September 2026Aberdeen0–0KilmarnockxG 1.08–1.11
25 April 2026Aberdeen1–0KilmarnockxG 0.50–0.71
31 January 2026Kilmarnock3–0AberdeenxG 2.55–1.01
14 December 2025Aberdeen2–1KilmarnockxG 3.76–1.02
29 October 2025Kilmarnock0–1AberdeenxG 1.36–0.55
22 February 2025Aberdeen1–0KilmarnockxG 1.08–0.43

17 league meetings since 2020/21: Aberdeen won 10, Kilmarnock won 6, and 1 was a draw. Goals 18–16 and xG 1.23–1.25 per game.

Key players

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nisbet9722510.590.03
Armstrong3456000.030.23
Mayo7561010.220.00
Olusanya6572000.100.05

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kiltie9776300.350.18
John-Jules8560100.250.12
Hugill9810110.240.04
Ring8623000.070.18

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.