Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Motherwell v Aberdeen

Saturday 3 April 2027, 15:00 · Fir Park · Round 32

Forecast

MotherwellAberdeen
Expected goals1.651.01
Win52%22%
Expected Points1.810.93
Clean sheet36%19%

Motherwell 52%Draw 26%Aberdeen 22%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 52%.

Aberdeen goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+8%6%4%1%6%2%5%2%5%5%3%2%2%1%11%12%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Motherwell

  1. L2–317 OctKilmarnock (A)xG 3.37–1.64
  2. L0–211 OctCeltic (H)xG 1.10–2.85
  3. L1–219 SepDundee FC (A)xG 1.10–1.38
  4. L0–415 SepAberdeen (H)xG 0.85–0.90
  5. L0–15 SepRangers (A)xG 0.70–4.29
  6. W3–02 SepDundee United (H)xG 2.39–0.16

Aberdeen

  1. W3–117 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.83–1.03
  2. L0–111 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.23–1.10
  3. D1–119 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.70–1.40
  4. W4–015 SepMotherwell (A)xG 0.90–0.85
  5. D0–05 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.08–1.11
  6. L0–32 SepCeltic (A)xG 0.68–2.67

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

MotherwellAberdeen
Position10th7th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠2–⁠53–⁠2–⁠4
Points8 (0.89 per game)11 (1.22 per game)
Expected Points per game1.401.15
Goals11–⁠1610–⁠10
xG per game1.71–⁠1.851.24–⁠1.55
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.40–⁠1.111.40, 1.63–⁠1.43
Away: points, xG per game0.80, 1.96–⁠2.431.00, 0.75–⁠1.69
ManagerAlfred Johansson (9)Stephen Robinson (18)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackMotherwell1.33, 4thAberdeen1.15, 9thDefence (lower is better)Motherwell1.32, 5thAberdeen1.44, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctMotherwell attack: 1.33Aberdeen attack: 1.151.331.15AberdeenMotherwellDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctMotherwell defence: 1.32Aberdeen defence: 1.441.441.32

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

MotherwellAberdeen
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+23%+3%−43%−16%
Counter-attacks+12%+74%−68%+11%
Set pieces−48%−11%+42%−14%
Penalties+14%+71%+14%+71%
Headers−41%−13%+49%−31%
Left side−39%−14%−57%+2%
Centre+9%+1%−18%−39%
Right side+49%+40%−10%+19%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdAberdeen concededLeft side−39%+19%Centre+9%−39%Right side+49%+2%Open play+23%−16%Counter-attacks+12%+11%Set pieces−48%−14%Headers−41%−31%

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdMotherwell concededLeft side−57%+40%Centre−18%+1%Right side−10%−14%Open play−43%+3%Counter-attacks−68%+74%Set pieces+42%−11%Headers+49%−13%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

MotherwellAberdeen

1.71xG1.24
1.85xG against1.55
57%Possession46%
14.2Shots12.1
16.3Shots against15.6
4.7Shots on target3.3
2.6Big chances1.8
24.9Touches in the opposition box21.9
561Passes385
87%Pass accuracy77%
4.9Corners5.7
59%Field tilt42%
50.8Final-third entries38.6
14.1Box entries12.5
14.8Passes per defensive action14.0

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level352.001.50
Ahead152.331.42
Behind401.232.32

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level371.391.54
Ahead191.071.41
Behind341.171.64

xG by period

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.211–3
16–300.420.303–1
31–450.280.252–5
46–600.270.441–4
61–750.240.292–1
76–900.200.362–2

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.030.191–3
16–300.110.261–0
31–450.120.371–4
46–600.300.152–1
61–750.150.311–2
76–900.520.264–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Motherwell

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTPaulsen 9Sparrow 9Girdwood-Rei… 4Girdwood-ReichKnight-Lebel 3O'Donnell 2Moormann 9Longelo 8Williams 1Fadinger 9Priestman 2Hodge 6Levitt 1Maswanhise 5Vogt 3Kanga 1Lowry 5Charles-Cook 3Booth 1Said 5Longelo 1Houlden 1Houlden 3Maswanhise 2Said 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (2), 4-2-2-2 (1)

Aberdeen

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTMüller 9Cadden 8Lyons 1Mayo 7Milne 2Knoester 5Guinness… 1Guinness-WalkerOlusanya 1Molloy 4Happe 4Guinness… 8Guinness-WalkerCadden 1Ronan 5Olusanya 2Lyons 2Aremu 8Briedl 2Marshall 3Smith 2Yogane 1Olusanya 3Mouloua 2Ntelo 1Nisbet 9Yogane 35-3-2 in 3 of 9 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (3), 4-1-3-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
15 September 2026Motherwell0–4AberdeenxG 0.85–0.90
15 February 2026Motherwell2–0AberdeenxG 2.46–0.62
9 November 2025Aberdeen1–1MotherwellxG 0.80–0.68
27 September 2025Motherwell2–0AberdeenxG 2.03–1.00
29 March 2025Aberdeen4–1MotherwellxG 1.58–1.21
5 January 2025Motherwell2–0AberdeenxG 1.36–0.89

20 league meetings since 2020/21: Motherwell won 7, Aberdeen won 9, and 4 were drawn. Goals 27–30 and xG 1.34–1.39 per game.

Key players

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Maswanhise7581120.530.15
Lowry7602310.300.23
Longelo9746000.070.28
Said6533100.160.18

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nisbet9722510.590.03
Armstrong3456000.030.23
Mayo7561010.220.00
Olusanya6572000.100.05

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.