Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Celtic v Hearts

Saturday 13 February 2027, 15:00 · Celtic Park · Round 27

Forecast

CelticHearts
Expected goals2.160.89
Win66%14%
Expected Points2.190.61
Clean sheet41%12%

Celtic 66%Draw 20%Hearts 14%

Most likely score 2–0, 11%. Both sides score 53%.

Hearts goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+5%4%2%4%1%4%1%7%3%4%4%2%2%2%1%10%10%11%10%8%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Celtic

  1. W7–118 OctHearts (H)xG 4.23–1.20
  2. W2–011 OctMotherwell (A)xG 2.85–1.10
  3. L0–120 SepRangers (H)xG 0.39–1.81
  4. W1–09 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.80–0.69
  5. W2–15 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 3.19–1.95
  6. W3–02 SepAberdeen (H)xG 2.67–0.68

Hearts

  1. L1–718 OctCeltic (A)xG 1.20–4.23
  2. W5–010 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.43–0.68
  3. D1–119 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 1.92–0.39
  4. L1–215 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.79–2.14
  5. W2–16 SepDundee FC (H)xG 1.93–0.42
  6. W3–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.86–1.47

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

CelticHearts
Position1st3rd
Played99
Won, drawn, lost8–⁠0–⁠15–⁠1–⁠3
Points24 (2.67 per game)16 (1.78 per game)
Expected Points per game2.311.70
Goals23–⁠520–⁠15
xG per game2.93–⁠1.051.93–⁠1.54
Home: points, xG per game2.40, 2.60–⁠0.953.00, 2.44–⁠0.74
Away: points, xG per game3.00, 3.33–⁠1.180.80, 1.52–⁠2.18
ManagerMartin O'Neill (27)Wouter Vrancken (9)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackCeltic2.17, 1stHearts1.52, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Celtic0.88, 1stHearts1.16, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctCeltic attack: 2.17Hearts attack: 1.522.171.52HeartsCelticDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctCeltic defence: 0.88Hearts defence: 1.161.160.88

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

CelticHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+121%−48%+6%average
Counter-attacks+195%−35%−20%−10%
Set pieces−8%+5%+32%+4%
Penalties−100%−43%+129%−43%
Headers+164%−27%−14%+40%
Left side+159%−62%+41%+6%
Centre+87%−13%+13%+15%
Right side+61%−42%−35%−30%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdHearts concededLeft side+159%−30%Centre+87%+15%Right side+61%+6%Open play+121%averageCounter-attacks+195%−10%Set pieces−8%+4%Headers+164%+40%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdCeltic concededLeft side+41%−42%Centre+13%−13%Right side−35%−62%Open play+6%−48%Counter-attacks−20%−35%Set pieces+32%+5%Headers−14%−27%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticHearts

2.93xG1.93
1.05xG against1.54
60%Possession54%
20.3Shots17.1
11.9Shots against10.4
9.2Shots on target5.3
5.2Big chances2.6
38.2Touches in the opposition box29.7
605Passes455
88%Pass accuracy80%
9.0Corners6.9
68%Field tilt59%
62.3Final-third entries38.2
24.5Box entries16.5
13.0Passes per defensive action12.1

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level242.231.23
Ahead573.340.98
Behind102.161.05

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level211.751.55
Ahead412.011.30
Behind281.951.87

xG by period

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.400.126–0
16–300.400.251–1
31–450.710.247–2
46–600.570.076–1
61–750.310.202–1
76–900.540.161–0

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.164–3
16–300.250.102–2
31–450.510.355–3
46–600.340.283–3
61–750.200.132–1
76–900.330.514–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTSinisalo 8Johnstone 1Donovan 6Johnston 2Carter-Vickers 1Carter-Vickers 5Murray 3Trusty 6Scales 4Tierney 6Scales 3McGregor 8Baur 6Oxlade-Chamberlain 2Engels 2Hassan 5Durán 3McCowan 1Nygren 7Donovan 1Sørensen 1Yang 5Tounekti 2Nygren 1Durán 5Høgh 44-2-3-1 in 7 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 3-4-3 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTReus 9Altena 8Borchgrevink 1McCart 5McEntee 4Fagan-Walcott 2Findlay 6Milne 1McCart 2Kingsley 2Milne 2Magnússon 3McEntee 2Ageu 1Mendy 7Spittal 3Renaud 1Miller 6Kerjota 3Braga 7Guendouz 1Ba-Sy 1McPake 8Miller 1Wilson 6Braga 2Ba-Sy 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
18 October 2026Celtic7–1HeartsxG 4.23–1.20
16 May 2026Celtic3–1HeartsxG 2.83–0.93
25 January 2026Hearts2–2CelticxG 1.66–1.35
7 December 2025Celtic1–2HeartsxG 1.87–0.52
26 October 2025Hearts3–1CelticxG 1.57–0.88
29 March 2025Celtic3–0HeartsxG 2.68–1.02

20 league meetings since 2020/21: Celtic won 14, Hearts won 5, and 1 was a draw. Goals 49–23 and xG 2.49–0.98 per game.

Key players

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nygren8654630.730.23
Durán8591550.560.33
Tierney6459130.310.44
Baur6550100.290.19

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miller8589310.460.13
Braga9726320.470.10
McPake8610350.210.23
Mendy8672300.180.07

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.