Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Celtic 7–1 Hearts

Sunday 18 October 2026, 15:00 · Celtic Park · Round 9 · Half-time 5–1 · Referee David Dickinson

Celtic Tierney 7', Nygren 10', 83', Osmand 36', 38', McCart 45+1' (og), Durán 49'

Hearts Mendy 41'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

CelticHearts
Goals71
xG4.231.20
Expected Points2.810.14

Celtic 92%Draw 6%Hearts 3%

Most likely score 4–1, 10%. Final score 7–1, 7%.

Hearts goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+3%4%2%6%5%2%6%2%6%5%2%6%4%2%8%7%10%8%7%Final score

Own goals have no xG. How Expected Points work.

xG race

02460153045607590HTJota on for Osmand, 46'Oxlade-Chamberlain on for McGregor, Emenalo on for Tierney, and Høgh on for Durán, 60'Forrest on for Hassan, 70'Magnússon on for McEntee, 46'Mato on for McPake and Kerjota on for Miller, 54'Ba-Sy on for Braga, 71'Wilson on for Guendouz, 84'Tierney 7'Nygren 10'Osmand 36'Osmand 38'McCart 45+1' (og)Durán 49'Nygren 83'Mendy 41'Celtic 4.23Hearts 1.2002460153045607590HTJota on for Osmand, 46'Oxlade-Chamberlain on for McGregor, Emenalo on for Tierney, and Høgh on for Durán, 60'Forrest on for Hassan, 70'Magnússon on for McEntee, 46'Mato on for McPake and Kerjota on for Miller, 54'Ba-Sy on for Braga, 71'Wilson on for Guendouz, 84'Tierney 7'Nygren 10'Osmand 36'Osmand 38'McCart 45+1' (og)Durán 49'Nygren 83'Mendy 41'4.231.20CelticHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

CelticHearts

4.23 +1.47xG1.20 −0.82
6.15 +3.18xG on target1.26 −0.84
18 −3Shots20 +3
10 +0.9Shots on target5 −0.4
7 +2.0Big chances1 −1.8
28 −12Touches in the opposition box28 −2
48% −14Possession52% −2
485 −135Passes529 +84
87% 0Pass accuracy87% +7
6 −3.4Corners3 −4.4
22 +6Tackles18 0
12 +3.6Interceptions7 −0.9
30 +4Clearances19 −8
4 +0.8Saves3 +1.8
17 +7Fouls8 −5
0 −1.2Offsides1 −0.6

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one.

Chance locations

Celtic

Nygren 9', 0.30 xGDurán 38', 0.28 xGNygren 23', 0.21 xGDurán 59', 0.09 xGDurán 38', 0.08 xGOxlade-Chamberlain 67', 0.08 xGDurán 44', 0.07 xGDonovan 56', 0.07 xGHassan 48', 0.04 xGNygren 58', 0.04 xGHassan 17', 0.03 xGOsmand 38', 0.97 xG, goalTierney 7', 0.55 xG, goalNygren 83', 0.47 xG, goalOsmand 36', 0.33 xG, goalDurán 49', 0.25 xG, goalBaur 45+1', 0.24 xG, goalNygren 10', 0.13 xG, goal48%2.05 xGSix-yard box: 4 shots, 2.05 xG, 3 goals46%1.93 xGCentral box: 9 shots, 1.93 xG, 4 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals5%0.21 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.21 xG, 0 goals1%0.04 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

McCart 28', 0.16 xGMcEntee 30', 0.10 xGMendy 41', 0.09 xGMcCart 86', 0.08 xGBraga 24', 0.07 xGBraga 31', 0.07 xGKingsley 53', 0.07 xGMagnússon 86', 0.07 xGGuendouz 15', 0.06 xGBraga 41', 0.06 xGMato 70', 0.05 xGKingsley 3', 0.04 xGMcCart 41', 0.04 xGMato 85', 0.04 xGMiller 51', 0.03 xGMato 62', 0.03 xGBraga 63', 0.03 xGKerjota 69', 0.03 xGMcPake 20', 0.02 xGMendy 41', 0.06 xG, goal8%0.10 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.10 xG, 0 goals54%0.65 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 0.65 xG, 0 goals21%0.25 xGWide in the box: 7 shots, 0.25 xG, 0 goals11%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.13 xG, 1 goal6%0.07 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.07 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

CelticHearts

2.71 12 shots, 4 goalsOpen play0.56 12 shots, 0 goals
0.81 3 shots, 1 goalCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.72 3 shots, 2 goalsSet pieces0.64 8 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
7 min (8%) · Celtic 0.55, Hearts 0.04 xG
Celtic ahead
84 min (92%) · Celtic 3.68, Hearts 1.16 xG

Line-ups

1514756342222381911SinisaloDonovanMurrayScalesTierneyMcGregorBaurHassanNygrenOsmandDuránYellow cardGoalYellow cardGoalGoalGoalGoalGoal60'60'70'46'60'Celtic 4-2-3-1Martin O'Neill12364537786151910ReusAltenaFagan-WalcottMcCartKingsleyMillerMendyMcEnteeMcPakeGuendouzBragaOwn goalYellow cardGoal54'46'54'84'71'Hearts 4-4-1-1Wouter Vrancken

Celtic substitutes

  • 46' Jota for Osmand · yellow card 49'
  • 60' Emenalo for Tierney
  • 60' Oxlade-Chamberlain for McGregor
  • 60' Høgh for Durán · 1 assist
  • 70' Forrest for Hassan

Hearts substitutes

  • 46' Magnússon for McEntee
  • 54' Mato for McPake
  • 54' Kerjota for Miller
  • 71' Ba-Sy for Braga
  • 84' Wilson for Guendouz

Players

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
SinisaloGK900.000.0001
Donovan RB900.070.03015
MurrayCB9010.000.41212
ScalesCB9010.000.02115
TierneyLB60110.550.0724
McGregorDM600.000.0000
Baur DM900.240.4407
HassanRW700.060.0910
NygrenAM9021.150.2244
OsmandLW4621.300.4712
DuránST60120.780.3121
Jota FW440.000.0304
EmenaloDF300.000.0102
Oxlade-ChamberlainMF300.080.0105
HøghFW3010.000.0910
ForrestFW200.000.0000

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
ReusGK900.000.0000
AltenaRB900.000.2127
Fagan-WalcottCB900.000.0119
McCartCB900.280.0108
KingsleyLB900.120.0802
Miller RM540.030.0714
MendyCM9010.160.0715
McEnteeCM460.100.0100
McPakeLM5410.020.0930
GuendouzAM840.060.0413
BragaST710.230.2620
MagnússonMF440.070.0014
MatoFW360.120.0002
KerjotaFW360.030.2623
Ba-SyFW190.000.0110
WilsonFW60.000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions).

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackCeltic2.10 → 2.17Hearts1.55 → 1.52Defence (lower is better)Celtic0.88 → 0.88Hearts1.09 → 1.16

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Celtic
Title77%81%+4
Hearts
Title1%1%0
Top six97%97%0
Rangers
Title22%19%−3

From the forecast before the match (18 October 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points. How the forecasts work.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

CelticHearts
Expected goals1.970.92
Win61%16%
Expected Points2.070.71
Clean sheet40%14%

Celtic 61%Draw 22%Hearts 16%

Most likely score 2–0, 11%. Both sides score 52%.

Hearts goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+6%5%2%5%1%5%1%7%7%3%4%3%1%1%1%10%11%11%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowCeltic winDrawHearts win
Celtic
Title77%81%73%69%
Hearts
Title1%1%1%3%
Top six97%97%98%99%
Rangers
Title22%19%25%27%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Celtic

  1. W2–011 OctMotherwell (A)xG 2.85–1.10
  2. L0–120 SepRangers (H)xG 0.39–1.81
  3. W1–09 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.80–0.69
  4. W2–15 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 3.19–1.95
  5. W3–02 SepAberdeen (H)xG 2.67–0.68
  6. W2–129 AugFalkirk (H)xG 3.45–0.57

Hearts

  1. W5–010 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.43–0.68
  2. D1–119 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 1.92–0.39
  3. L1–215 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.79–2.14
  4. W2–16 SepDundee FC (H)xG 1.93–0.42
  5. W3–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.86–1.47
  6. W2–129 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.20–1.28

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

CelticHearts
Position1st3rd
Played88
Won, drawn, lost7–⁠0–⁠15–⁠1–⁠2
Points21 (2.62 per game)16 (2.00 per game)
Expected Points per game2.251.90
Goals16–⁠419–⁠8
xG per game2.76–⁠1.032.02–⁠1.20
Home: points, xG per game2.25, 2.19–⁠0.893.00, 2.44–⁠0.74
Away: points, xG per game3.00, 3.33–⁠1.181.00, 1.60–⁠1.66
ManagerMartin O'Neill (26)Wouter Vrancken (8)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackCeltic2.10, 1stHearts1.55, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Celtic0.88, 1stHearts1.09, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctCeltic attack: 2.10Hearts attack: 1.552.101.55HeartsCelticDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctCeltic defence: 0.88Hearts defence: 1.091.090.88

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

CelticHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+115%−48%+13%−23%
Counter-attacks+185%−25%−8%−51%
Set pieces−21%−4%+27%−9%
Penalties−100%−37%+152%−37%
Headers+139%−22%−8%−6%
Left side+166%−63%+47%−34%
Centre+82%−11%+18%−1%
Right side+30%−48%−32%−49%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdHearts concededLeft side+166%−49%Centre+82%−1%Right side+30%−34%Open play+115%−23%Counter-attacks+185%−51%Set pieces−21%−9%Headers+139%−6%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdCeltic concededLeft side+47%−48%Centre+18%−11%Right side−32%−63%Open play+13%−48%Counter-attacks−8%−25%Set pieces+27%−4%Headers−8%−22%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticHearts

2.76xG2.02
1.03xG against1.20
62%Possession54%
20.6Shots16.8
10.9Shots against9.5
9.1Shots on target5.4
5.0Big chances2.8
39.5Touches in the opposition box29.9
620Passes445
88%Pass accuracy79%
9.4Corners7.4
68%Field tilt59%
62.3Final-third entries38.2
24.5Box entries16.5
13.0Passes per defensive action12.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level262.061.25
Ahead543.220.93
Behind112.161.05

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level221.791.33
Ahead462.011.30
Behind222.290.85

xG by period

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.330.134–0
16–300.420.241–1
31–450.550.234–1
46–600.590.075–1
61–750.340.212–1
76–900.540.150–0

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.320.064–1
16–300.240.092–2
31–450.530.154–0
46–600.380.263–2
61–750.210.142–1
76–900.350.524–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Unavailable

Celtic

PlayerReasonExpected backStartsMin
Carter-VickersInjuryAbout 1–2 weeks6540
YangInjuryLate October 20265377
JohnstonInjuryMid October 20262136

Hearts

PlayerReasonExpected backStartsMin
AgeuInjuryAbout 1–2 weeks187
SpittalInjuryLate October 20263274
RenaudInjuryMid October 2026164
HalkettInjuryMid October 202600

Injured, suspended, and otherwise unavailable players as listed before the match, with their league starts and minutes this season.

Most used players by position

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTSinisalo 7Johnstone 1Donovan 5Johnston 2Carter-Vickers 1Carter-Vickers 5Murray 2Trusty 6Scales 3Tierney 5Scales 3McGregor 7Baur 5Oxlade-Chamberlain 2Engels 2Hassan 4Durán 3McCowan 1Nygren 6Donovan 1Sørensen 1Yang 5Tounekti 2Nygren 1Høgh 4Durán 44-2-3-1 in 6 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 3-4-3 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTReus 8Altena 7Borchgrevink 1McCart 4McEntee 4Fagan-Walcott 1Findlay 6Milne 1McCart 2Milne 2Mendy 1Magnússon 3Ageu 1Dhanda 1Mendy 6Spittal 3Renaud 1Miller 5Kerjota 3Braga 7Ba-Sy 1McPake 7Miller 1Wilson 6Braga 1Ba-Sy 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (2)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
16 May 2026Celtic3–1HeartsxG 2.83–0.93
25 January 2026Hearts2–2CelticxG 1.66–1.35
7 December 2025Celtic1–2HeartsxG 1.87–0.52
26 October 2025Hearts3–1CelticxG 1.57–0.88
29 March 2025Celtic3–0HeartsxG 2.68–1.02
23 November 2024Hearts1–4CelticxG 0.85–3.87

19 league meetings since 2020/21: Celtic won 13, Hearts won 5, and 1 was a draw. Goals 42–22 and xG 2.40–0.97 per game.

Key players

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nygren7564430.660.23
Durán7531430.490.32
Baur5460100.300.14
Scales6536100.100.15

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miller7535310.500.13
Braga8655320.490.08
McPake7556340.230.23
Mendy7582200.190.07

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.