Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Hearts v St. Mirren

Saturday 30 January 2027, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 25

Forecast

HeartsSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.950.83
Win63%15%
Expected Points2.110.66
Clean sheet44%14%

Hearts 63%Draw 22%St. Mirren 15%

Most likely score 2–0, 12%. Both sides score 49%.

St. Mirren goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+7%5%2%4%1%4%1%8%6%3%4%3%1%1%1%12%11%12%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Hearts

  1. L1–718 OctCeltic (A)xG 1.20–4.23
  2. W5–010 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.43–0.68
  3. D1–119 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 1.92–0.39
  4. L1–215 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.79–2.14
  5. W2–16 SepDundee FC (H)xG 1.93–0.42
  6. W3–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.86–1.47

St. Mirren

  1. L1–317 OctAberdeen (A)xG 1.03–2.83
  2. L0–510 OctHearts (A)xG 0.68–3.43
  3. L0–319 SepDundee United (H)xG 0.99–1.60
  4. L0–19 SepRangers (A)xG 1.26–2.49
  5. L1–25 SepCeltic (H)xG 1.95–3.19
  6. W1–02 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 0.85–0.41

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsSt. Mirren
Position3rd8th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠1–⁠33–⁠1–⁠5
Points16 (1.78 per game)10 (1.11 per game)
Expected Points per game1.701.09
Goals20–⁠159–⁠17
xG per game1.93–⁠1.541.43–⁠2.01
Home: points, xG per game3.00, 2.44–⁠0.741.00, 1.86–⁠2.10
Away: points, xG per game0.80, 1.52–⁠2.181.20, 1.08–⁠1.94
ManagerWouter Vrancken (9)Craig McLeish (18)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackHearts1.52, 3rdSt. Mirren1.08, 11thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.16, 3rdSt. Mirren1.49, 9th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHearts attack: 1.52St. Mirren attack: 1.081.521.08St. MirrenHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHearts defence: 1.16St. Mirren defence: 1.491.491.16

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+6%average−22%+1%
Counter-attacks−20%−10%+67%+29%
Set pieces+32%+4%−37%+16%
Penalties+129%−43%+14%+186%
Headers−14%+40%−54%−13%
Left side+41%+6%−17%average
Centre+13%+15%−10%−20%
Right side−35%−30%−17%+62%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+41%+62%Centre+13%−20%Right side−35%averageOpen play+6%+1%Counter-attacks−20%+29%Set pieces+32%+16%Headers−14%−13%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdHearts concededLeft side−17%−30%Centre−10%+15%Right side−17%+6%Open play−22%averageCounter-attacks+67%−10%Set pieces−37%+4%Headers−54%+40%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsSt. Mirren

1.93xG1.43
1.54xG against2.01
54%Possession50%
17.1Shots13.4
10.4Shots against15.4
5.3Shots on target3.9
2.6Big chances2.1
29.7Touches in the opposition box25.7
455Passes448
80%Pass accuracy81%
6.9Corners4.4
59%Field tilt47%
38.2Final-third entries39.2
16.5Box entries14.2
12.1Passes per defensive action14.0

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level211.751.55
Ahead412.011.30
Behind281.951.87

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level291.612.69
Ahead281.401.23
Behind321.282.09

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.164–3
16–300.250.102–2
31–450.510.355–3
46–600.340.283–3
61–750.200.132–1
76–900.330.514–3

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.372–4
16–300.240.211–2
31–450.240.314–2
46–600.150.600–4
61–750.340.181–2
76–900.370.341–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTReus 9Altena 8Borchgrevink 1McCart 5McEntee 4Fagan-Walcott 2Findlay 6Milne 1McCart 2Kingsley 2Milne 2Magnússon 3McEntee 2Ageu 1Mendy 7Spittal 3Renaud 1Miller 6Kerjota 3Braga 7Guendouz 1Ba-Sy 1McPake 8Miller 1Wilson 6Braga 2Ba-Sy 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1)

St. Mirren

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTChapman 9Ramsay 7Fraser 1Richardson 1Gogić 8Fraser 2Jackson 1Fieldson 7John 8Sule 1Carr 9Nsio 5Phillips 2Taylor 2Mochrie 4Ramos 2Kabia 1Phillips 2Taylor 2Nsio 1Kabia 4Nsio 1Thomas 1Agrafiotis 4Sule 2Phillips 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
10 October 2026Hearts5–0St. MirrenxG 3.43–0.68
3 February 2026St. Mirren1–0HeartsxG 2.31–0.23
14 January 2026Hearts2–0St. MirrenxG 2.18–0.98
29 October 2025St. Mirren2–2HeartsxG 1.01–1.57
26 February 2025Hearts3–1St. MirrenxG 1.34–1.17
19 October 2024Hearts4–0St. MirrenxG 1.73–0.24

18 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 10, St. Mirren won 4, and 4 were drawn. Goals 33–16 and xG 1.55–1.04 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miller8589310.460.13
Braga9726320.470.10
McPake8610350.210.23
Mendy8672300.180.07

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ramsay7565000.140.10
Kabia7550000.100.13
John8720100.070.13
Mochrie7474000.070.11

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.