Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Falkirk v Hearts

Saturday 23 January 2027, 15:00 · The Falkirk Stadium · Round 24

Forecast

FalkirkHearts
Expected goals1.171.45
Win30%43%
Expected Points1.171.56
Clean sheet23%31%

Falkirk 30%Draw 27%Hearts 43%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Hearts goalsFalkirk goals0123456+0123456+8%8%4%1%8%9%4%2%5%7%5%3%2%3%2%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Falkirk

  1. W2–117 OctHibernian (A)xG 0.74–1.35
  2. L1–210 OctDundee FC (H)xG 1.97–1.41
  3. D1–119 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.29–0.94
  4. W2–115 SepHearts (H)xG 2.14–1.79
  5. D1–15 SepDundee United (A)xG 1.27–2.66
  6. L1–22 SepRangers (H)xG 1.00–1.57

Hearts

  1. L1–718 OctCeltic (A)xG 1.20–4.23
  2. W5–010 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.43–0.68
  3. D1–119 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 1.92–0.39
  4. L1–215 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.79–2.14
  5. W2–16 SepDundee FC (H)xG 1.93–0.42
  6. W3–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.86–1.47

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

FalkirkHearts
Position9th3rd
Played99
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠3–⁠45–⁠1–⁠3
Points9 (1.00 per game)16 (1.78 per game)
Expected Points per game0.981.70
Goals9–⁠1220–⁠15
xG per game1.12–⁠1.781.93–⁠1.54
Home: points, xG per game0.75, 1.42–⁠1.583.00, 2.44–⁠0.74
Away: points, xG per game1.20, 0.88–⁠1.930.80, 1.52–⁠2.18
ManagerJohn McGlynn (47)Wouter Vrancken (9)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackFalkirk1.18, 7thHearts1.52, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Falkirk1.44, 8thHearts1.16, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctFalkirk attack: 1.18Hearts attack: 1.521.521.18HeartsFalkirkDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctFalkirk defence: 1.44Hearts defence: 1.161.441.16

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

FalkirkHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−9%+29%+6%average
Counter-attacks−84%−28%−20%−10%
Set pieces−53%+32%+32%+4%
Penalties−43%−100%+129%−43%
Headers−61%−44%−14%+40%
Left side−48%+11%+41%+6%
Centre−34%+15%+13%+15%
Right sideaverage+43%−35%−30%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdHearts concededLeft side−48%−30%Centre−34%+15%Right sideaverage+6%Open play−9%averageCounter-attacks−84%−10%Set pieces−53%+4%Headers−61%+40%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdFalkirk concededLeft side+41%+43%Centre+13%+15%Right side−35%+11%Open play+6%+29%Counter-attacks−20%−28%Set pieces+32%+32%Headers−14%−44%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

FalkirkHearts

1.12xG1.93
1.78xG against1.54
46%Possession54%
11.4Shots17.1
16.0Shots against10.4
3.3Shots on target5.3
1.4Big chances2.6
23.2Touches in the opposition box29.7
396Passes455
76%Pass accuracy80%
4.3Corners6.9
49%Field tilt59%
38.5Final-third entries38.2
9.8Box entries16.5
12.6Passes per defensive action12.1

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level391.431.47
Ahead281.091.92
Behind240.652.12

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level211.751.55
Ahead412.011.30
Behind281.951.87

xG by period

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.153–3
16–300.080.410–2
31–450.260.363–1
46–600.110.211–1
61–750.210.312–0
76–900.290.340–5

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.164–3
16–300.250.102–2
31–450.510.355–3
46–600.340.283–3
61–750.200.132–1
76–900.330.514–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 9Strain 9Neilson 7Meļņiks 2Henderson 9McCann 7Tanser 2Barbrook 8McMillan 1Spencer 7Krauhaus 1Sibbald 1Ross 6Fodrey 1Doherty 1Krauhaus 7Yeats 2Eames 5Ross 2Fodrey 1Murrell 6Parkinson 2MacIver 14-2-3-1 in every start

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTReus 9Altena 8Borchgrevink 1McCart 5McEntee 4Fagan-Walcott 2Findlay 6Milne 1McCart 2Kingsley 2Milne 2Magnússon 3McEntee 2Ageu 1Mendy 7Spittal 3Renaud 1Miller 6Kerjota 3Braga 7Guendouz 1Ba-Sy 1McPake 8Miller 1Wilson 6Braga 2Ba-Sy 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
15 September 2026Falkirk2–1HeartsxG 2.14–1.79
13 May 2026Hearts3–0FalkirkxG 0.56–0.28
21 February 2026Hearts1–0FalkirkxG 1.10–0.74
13 December 2025Falkirk0–2HeartsxG 1.03–1.51
27 September 2025Hearts3–0FalkirkxG 1.94–0.67

5 league meetings since 2020/21: Falkirk won 1, Hearts won 4, and 0 were drawn. Goals 2–10 and xG 0.97–1.38 per game.

Key players

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Murrell6470400.600.03
Strain9810040.070.16
Barbrook8675000.110.09
Ross8647110.090.10

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miller8589310.460.13
Braga9726320.470.10
McPake8610350.210.23
Mendy8672300.180.07

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.