Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Kilmarnock v St. Mirren

Saturday 9 January 2027, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 23

Forecast

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.501.16
Win44%29%
Expected Points1.601.13
Clean sheet31%22%

Kilmarnock 44%Draw 27%St. Mirren 29%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

St. Mirren goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+8%8%5%2%7%3%8%9%5%2%4%5%3%1%1%2%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. W3–217 OctMotherwell (H)xG 1.64–3.37
  2. L1–310 OctRangers (A)xG 1.15–1.42
  3. D1–119 SepHearts (H)xG 0.39–1.92
  4. W1–015 SepHibernian (A)xG 2.21–1.45
  5. D0–05 SepAberdeen (A)xG 1.11–1.08
  6. L0–12 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.41–0.85

St. Mirren

  1. L1–317 OctAberdeen (A)xG 1.03–2.83
  2. L0–510 OctHearts (A)xG 0.68–3.43
  3. L0–319 SepDundee United (H)xG 0.99–1.60
  4. L0–19 SepRangers (A)xG 1.26–2.49
  5. L1–25 SepCeltic (H)xG 1.95–3.19
  6. W1–02 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 0.85–0.41

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
Position11th8th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠2–⁠53–⁠1–⁠5
Points8 (0.89 per game)10 (1.11 per game)
Expected Points per game0.771.09
Goals10–⁠209–⁠17
xG per game1.10–⁠2.341.43–⁠2.01
Home: points, xG per game0.80, 0.91–⁠3.011.00, 1.86–⁠2.10
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.35–⁠1.491.20, 1.08–⁠1.94
ManagerNeil McCann (25)Craig McLeish (18)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackKilmarnock1.17, 8thSt. Mirren1.08, 11thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.62, 12thSt. Mirren1.49, 9th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctKilmarnock attack: 1.17St. Mirren attack: 1.081.171.08St. MirrenKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctKilmarnock defence: 1.62St. Mirren defence: 1.491.621.49

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−15%+53%−22%+1%
Counter-attacks−69%+102%+67%+29%
Set pieces−25%+31%−37%+16%
Penalties−100%−43%+14%+186%
Headers−44%+116%−54%−13%
Left side−14%+49%−17%average
Centre−33%+101%−10%−20%
Right side−20%−15%−17%+62%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−14%+62%Centre−33%−20%Right side−20%averageOpen play−15%+1%Counter-attacks−69%+29%Set pieces−25%+16%Headers−44%−13%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−17%−15%Centre−10%+101%Right side−17%+49%Open play−22%+53%Counter-attacks+67%+102%Set pieces−37%+31%Headers−54%+116%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockSt. Mirren

1.10xG1.43
2.34xG against2.01
43%Possession50%
10.9Shots13.4
18.2Shots against15.4
4.2Shots on target3.9
2.0Big chances2.1
21.6Touches in the opposition box25.7
393Passes448
77%Pass accuracy81%
4.7Corners4.4
39%Field tilt47%
36.9Final-third entries39.2
10.5Box entries14.2
16.5Passes per defensive action14.0

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level311.082.19
Ahead191.332.28
Behind401.022.47

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level291.612.69
Ahead281.401.23
Behind321.282.09

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.281–4
16–300.090.501–3
31–450.180.412–5
46–600.240.424–3
61–750.200.251–2
76–900.200.471–3

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.372–4
16–300.240.211–2
31–450.240.314–2
46–600.150.600–4
61–750.340.181–2
76–900.370.341–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTStryjek 6Ferrie 3Ring 3Brandon 3Kamara 2McCarthy 6Schilte-Brown 1Stanger 8Yfeko 2Deas 1Schjønning-L… 9Schjønning-LarsenTshibola 4O'Hara 2Lowery 8Rice 3Ring 1Ring 4Kiltie 2McCarthy 1John-Jules 4Kiltie 3Lowery 1Hugill 4Kiltie 4Cleșcenco 1Hugill 4John-Jules 4Daniëls 14-2-3-1 in 2 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

St. Mirren

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTChapman 9Ramsay 7Fraser 1Richardson 1Gogić 8Fraser 2Jackson 1Fieldson 7John 8Sule 1Carr 9Nsio 5Phillips 2Taylor 2Mochrie 4Ramos 2Kabia 1Phillips 2Taylor 2Nsio 1Kabia 4Nsio 1Thomas 1Agrafiotis 4Sule 2Phillips 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
2 September 2026Kilmarnock0–1St. MirrenxG 0.41–0.85
9 May 2026St. Mirren0–3KilmarnockxG 1.21–1.49
11 February 2026Kilmarnock4–3St. MirrenxG 2.76–1.96
27 December 2025St. Mirren0–0KilmarnockxG 1.36–0.75
4 October 2025Kilmarnock2–0St. MirrenxG 2.15–0.43
29 March 2025St. Mirren5–1KilmarnockxG 1.74–1.29

19 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 9, St. Mirren won 3, and 7 were drawn. Goals 29–20 and xG 1.31–0.92 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kiltie9776300.350.18
John-Jules8560100.250.12
Hugill9810110.240.04
Ring8623000.070.18

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ramsay7565000.140.10
Kabia7550000.100.13
John8720100.070.13
Mochrie7474000.070.11

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.