Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

St. Johnstone v Aberdeen

Saturday 26 December 2026, 15:00 · McDiarmid Park · Round 20

Forecast

St. JohnstoneAberdeen
Expected goals1.331.16
Win40%32%
Expected Points1.481.24
Clean sheet31%26%

St. Johnstone 40%Draw 28%Aberdeen 32%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 51%.

Aberdeen goalsSt. Johnstone goals0123456+0123456+9%9%6%2%7%3%7%9%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

St. Johnstone

  1. D1–117 OctDundee United (H)xG 1.29–1.02
  2. W1–011 OctAberdeen (A)xG 1.10–1.23
  3. D1–119 SepFalkirk (H)xG 0.94–1.29
  4. L0–19 SepCeltic (H)xG 0.69–1.80
  5. W2–16 SepHibernian (H)xG 2.32–1.61
  6. D1–12 SepDundee FC (A)xG 1.08–2.07

Aberdeen

  1. W3–117 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.83–1.03
  2. L0–111 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.23–1.10
  3. D1–119 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.70–1.40
  4. W4–015 SepMotherwell (A)xG 0.90–0.85
  5. D0–05 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.08–1.11
  6. L0–32 SepCeltic (A)xG 0.68–2.67

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. JohnstoneAberdeen
Position5th7th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠3–⁠33–⁠2–⁠4
Points12 (1.33 per game)11 (1.22 per game)
Expected Points per game1.211.15
Goals11–⁠1110–⁠10
xG per game1.32–⁠1.521.24–⁠1.55
Home: points, xG per game1.60, 1.45–⁠1.331.40, 1.63–⁠1.43
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.16–⁠1.771.00, 0.75–⁠1.69
ManagerSimo Valakari (40)Stephen Robinson (18)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackSt. Johnstone1.08, 12thAberdeen1.15, 9thDefence (lower is better)St. Johnstone1.52, 10thAberdeen1.44, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctSt. Johnstone attack: 1.08Aberdeen attack: 1.151.151.08AberdeenSt. JohnstoneDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctSt. Johnstone defence: 1.52Aberdeen defence: 1.441.521.44

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. JohnstoneAberdeen
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−26%average−43%−16%
Counter-attacks−50%−11%−68%+11%
Set pieces−18%+1%+42%−14%
Penalties+71%−43%+14%+71%
Headers−17%+29%+49%−31%
Left side−14%+7%−57%+2%
Centre−18%−10%−18%−39%
Right side−58%+5%−10%+19%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Johnstone attacking

St. Johnstone createdAberdeen concededLeft side−14%+19%Centre−18%−39%Right side−58%+2%Open play−26%−16%Counter-attacks−50%+11%Set pieces−18%−14%Headers−17%−31%

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdSt. Johnstone concededLeft side−57%+5%Centre−18%−10%Right side−10%+7%Open play−43%averageCounter-attacks−68%−11%Set pieces+42%+1%Headers+49%+29%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. JohnstoneAberdeen

1.32xG1.24
1.52xG against1.55
46%Possession46%
10.0Shots12.1
14.0Shots against15.6
3.6Shots on target3.3
2.2Big chances1.8
18.2Touches in the opposition box21.9
432Passes385
79%Pass accuracy77%
3.3Corners5.7
49%Field tilt42%
39.7Final-third entries38.6
10.9Box entries12.5
18.3Passes per defensive action14.0

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

St. Johnstone

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.631.53
Ahead250.841.58
Behind211.251.44

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level371.391.54
Ahead191.071.41
Behind341.171.64

xG by period

St. Johnstone

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.141–1
16–300.250.183–1
31–450.260.291–2
46–600.330.282–4
61–750.130.201–1
76–900.200.433–2

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.030.191–3
16–300.110.261–0
31–450.120.371–4
46–600.300.152–1
61–750.150.311–2
76–900.520.264–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Johnstone

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTSteward 9Smith 6Todd 3Mitchell 6Finlayson 3Diabate 8Foulds 1Alić 7Foulds 2McAlear 8Stanton 1Holt 9Stanton 5Campbell 2Steven 1Cotterill 3Paton 2Gullan 2Steven 4Paton 3Gullan 2Fowler 8Gullan 14-2-3-1 in 5 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (5), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Aberdeen

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTMüller 9Cadden 8Lyons 1Mayo 7Milne 2Knoester 5Guinness… 1Guinness-WalkerOlusanya 1Molloy 4Happe 4Guinness… 8Guinness-WalkerCadden 1Ronan 5Olusanya 2Lyons 2Aremu 8Briedl 2Marshall 3Smith 2Yogane 1Olusanya 3Mouloua 2Ntelo 1Nisbet 9Yogane 35-3-2 in 3 of 9 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (3), 4-1-3-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
11 October 2026Aberdeen0–1St. JohnstonexG 1.23–1.10
15 March 2025St. Johnstone0–0AberdeenxG 0.64–0.58
7 December 2024Aberdeen1–1St. JohnstonexG 0.70–1.35
5 August 2024St. Johnstone1–2AberdeenxG 0.81–1.79
4 May 2024Aberdeen1–0St. JohnstonexG 3.34–0.99
28 February 2024Aberdeen0–2St. JohnstonexG 2.17–1.69

19 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Johnstone won 4, Aberdeen won 9, and 6 were drawn. Goals 10–15 and xG 0.79–1.20 per game.

Key players

St. Johnstone

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Fowler8603610.570.05
Paton5452100.420.05
Alić7630110.070.18
Stanton7627010.090.05

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nisbet9722510.590.03
Armstrong3456000.030.23
Mayo7561010.220.00
Olusanya6572000.100.05

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.