Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Falkirk v Dundee United

Saturday 26 December 2026, 15:00 · The Falkirk Stadium · Round 20

Forecast

FalkirkDundee United
Expected goals1.451.19
Win43%30%
Expected Points1.551.18
Clean sheet30%23%

Falkirk 43%Draw 27%Dundee United 30%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

Dundee United goalsFalkirk goals0123456+0123456+8%8%5%2%7%3%8%9%5%2%4%4%3%1%1%2%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Falkirk

  1. W2–117 OctHibernian (A)xG 0.74–1.35
  2. L1–210 OctDundee FC (H)xG 1.97–1.41
  3. D1–119 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.29–0.94
  4. W2–115 SepHearts (H)xG 2.14–1.79
  5. D1–15 SepDundee United (A)xG 1.27–2.66
  6. L1–22 SepRangers (H)xG 1.00–1.57

Dundee United

  1. D1–117 OctSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.02–1.29
  2. W1–010 OctHibernian (H)xG 1.68–0.77
  3. W3–019 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.60–0.99
  4. D1–15 SepFalkirk (H)xG 2.66–1.27
  5. L0–32 SepMotherwell (A)xG 0.16–2.39
  6. W4–029 AugKilmarnock (A)xG 3.42–1.13

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

FalkirkDundee United
Position9th6th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠3–⁠43–⁠3–⁠3
Points9 (1.00 per game)12 (1.33 per game)
Expected Points per game0.981.45
Goals9–⁠1211–⁠12
xG per game1.12–⁠1.781.55–⁠1.44
Home: points, xG per game0.75, 1.42–⁠1.581.25, 1.79–⁠1.23
Away: points, xG per game1.20, 0.88–⁠1.931.40, 1.36–⁠1.60
ManagerJohn McGlynn (47)Jim Goodwin (97)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackFalkirk1.18, 7thDundee United1.24, 6thDefence (lower is better)Falkirk1.44, 8thDundee United1.43, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctFalkirk attack: 1.18Dundee United attack: 1.241.241.18Dundee UnitedFalkirkDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctFalkirk defence: 1.44Dundee United defence: 1.431.441.43

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

FalkirkDundee United
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−9%+29%−30%+6%
Counter-attacks−84%−28%+56%−64%
Set pieces−53%+32%+53%−13%
Penalties−43%−100%−43%−43%
Headers−61%−44%−5%−36%
Left side−48%+11%−26%+9%
Centre−34%+15%−2%−4%
Right sideaverage+43%+34%−28%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdDundee United concededLeft side−48%−28%Centre−34%−4%Right sideaverage+9%Open play−9%+6%Counter-attacks−84%−64%Set pieces−53%−13%Headers−61%−36%

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdFalkirk concededLeft side−26%+43%Centre−2%+15%Right side+34%+11%Open play−30%+29%Counter-attacks+56%−28%Set pieces+53%+32%Headers−5%−44%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

FalkirkDundee United

1.12xG1.55
1.78xG against1.44
46%Possession51%
11.4Shots15.9
16.0Shots against14.9
3.3Shots on target5.6
1.4Big chances2.2
23.2Touches in the opposition box30.0
396Passes421
76%Pass accuracy79%
4.3Corners6.3
49%Field tilt46%
38.5Final-third entries39.0
9.8Box entries14.0
12.6Passes per defensive action12.2

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level391.431.47
Ahead281.091.92
Behind240.652.12

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level251.891.30
Ahead261.741.14
Behind391.201.72

xG by period

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.153–3
16–300.080.410–2
31–450.260.363–1
46–600.110.211–1
61–750.210.312–0
76–900.290.340–5

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.240.343–3
16–300.140.210–2
31–450.440.215–1
46–600.190.300–3
61–750.240.210–3
76–900.310.163–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 9Strain 9Neilson 7Meļņiks 2Henderson 9McCann 7Tanser 2Barbrook 8McMillan 1Spencer 7Krauhaus 1Sibbald 1Ross 6Fodrey 1Doherty 1Krauhaus 7Yeats 2Eames 5Ross 2Fodrey 1Murrell 6Parkinson 2MacIver 14-2-3-1 in every start

Dundee United

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWWalton 9Rawlins 8Yoro 1Esselink 9Forbes 9Ferry 5Ciubotaru 4Camará 4Sevelj 3Yoro 2Tait 7Agyei 4Cameron 4Iqbal 3Randall 4Merghem 4Bennie 1Metsoko 4Sapsford 3Rose 2Bennie 6Randall 2Sapsford 14-3-3 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
5 September 2026Dundee United1–1FalkirkxG 2.66–1.27
14 February 2026Falkirk2–3Dundee UnitedxG 0.94–1.09
22 November 2025Dundee United0–3FalkirkxG 0.74–1.78
3 August 2025Falkirk2–2Dundee UnitedxG 2.02–1.19

4 league meetings since 2020/21: Falkirk won 1, Dundee United won 1, and 2 were drawn. Goals 8–6 and xG 1.50–1.42 per game.

Key players

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Murrell6470400.600.03
Strain9810040.070.16
Barbrook8675000.110.09
Ross8647110.090.10

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Randall6596230.310.33
Bennie7503110.440.09
Tait7673000.080.15
Forbes9810100.110.04

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.