Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

St. Mirren v Hearts

Saturday 5 December 2026, 17:30 · The Marbill Coaches Stadium · Round 17

Forecast

St. MirrenHearts
Expected goals1.081.50
Win27%46%
Expected Points1.071.66
Clean sheet22%34%

St. Mirren 27%Draw 27%Hearts 46%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 52%.

Hearts goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+8%9%4%2%8%9%5%2%4%7%5%2%2%2%2%11%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. L1–317 OctAberdeen (A)xG 1.03–2.83
  2. L0–510 OctHearts (A)xG 0.68–3.43
  3. L0–319 SepDundee United (H)xG 0.99–1.60
  4. L0–19 SepRangers (A)xG 1.26–2.49
  5. L1–25 SepCeltic (H)xG 1.95–3.19
  6. W1–02 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 0.85–0.41

Hearts

  1. L1–718 OctCeltic (A)xG 1.20–4.23
  2. W5–010 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.43–0.68
  3. D1–119 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 1.92–0.39
  4. L1–215 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.79–2.14
  5. W2–16 SepDundee FC (H)xG 1.93–0.42
  6. W3–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.86–1.47

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenHearts
Position8th3rd
Played99
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠1–⁠55–⁠1–⁠3
Points10 (1.11 per game)16 (1.78 per game)
Expected Points per game1.091.70
Goals9–⁠1720–⁠15
xG per game1.43–⁠2.011.93–⁠1.54
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.86–⁠2.103.00, 2.44–⁠0.74
Away: points, xG per game1.20, 1.08–⁠1.940.80, 1.52–⁠2.18
ManagerCraig McLeish (18)Wouter Vrancken (9)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackSt. Mirren1.08, 11thHearts1.52, 3rdDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.49, 9thHearts1.16, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctSt. Mirren attack: 1.08Hearts attack: 1.521.521.08HeartsSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctSt. Mirren defence: 1.49Hearts defence: 1.161.491.16

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−22%+1%+6%average
Counter-attacks+67%+29%−20%−10%
Set pieces−37%+16%+32%+4%
Penalties+14%+186%+129%−43%
Headers−54%−13%−14%+40%
Left side−17%average+41%+6%
Centre−10%−20%+13%+15%
Right side−17%+62%−35%−30%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdHearts concededLeft side−17%−30%Centre−10%+15%Right side−17%+6%Open play−22%averageCounter-attacks+67%−10%Set pieces−37%+4%Headers−54%+40%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+41%+62%Centre+13%−20%Right side−35%averageOpen play+6%+1%Counter-attacks−20%+29%Set pieces+32%+16%Headers−14%−13%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenHearts

1.43xG1.93
2.01xG against1.54
50%Possession54%
13.4Shots17.1
15.4Shots against10.4
3.9Shots on target5.3
2.1Big chances2.6
25.7Touches in the opposition box29.7
448Passes455
81%Pass accuracy80%
4.4Corners6.9
47%Field tilt59%
39.2Final-third entries38.2
14.2Box entries16.5
14.0Passes per defensive action12.1

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level291.612.69
Ahead281.401.23
Behind321.282.09

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level211.751.55
Ahead412.011.30
Behind281.951.87

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.372–4
16–300.240.211–2
31–450.240.314–2
46–600.150.600–4
61–750.340.181–2
76–900.370.341–3

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.164–3
16–300.250.102–2
31–450.510.355–3
46–600.340.283–3
61–750.200.132–1
76–900.330.514–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTChapman 9Ramsay 7Fraser 1Richardson 1Gogić 8Fraser 2Jackson 1Fieldson 7John 8Sule 1Carr 9Nsio 5Phillips 2Taylor 2Mochrie 4Ramos 2Kabia 1Phillips 2Taylor 2Nsio 1Kabia 4Nsio 1Thomas 1Agrafiotis 4Sule 2Phillips 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTReus 9Altena 8Borchgrevink 1McCart 5McEntee 4Fagan-Walcott 2Findlay 6Milne 1McCart 2Kingsley 2Milne 2Magnússon 3McEntee 2Ageu 1Mendy 7Spittal 3Renaud 1Miller 6Kerjota 3Braga 7Guendouz 1Ba-Sy 1McPake 8Miller 1Wilson 6Braga 2Ba-Sy 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
10 October 2026Hearts5–0St. MirrenxG 3.43–0.68
3 February 2026St. Mirren1–0HeartsxG 2.31–0.23
14 January 2026Hearts2–0St. MirrenxG 2.18–0.98
29 October 2025St. Mirren2–2HeartsxG 1.01–1.57
26 February 2025Hearts3–1St. MirrenxG 1.34–1.17
19 October 2024Hearts4–0St. MirrenxG 1.73–0.24

18 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 4, Hearts won 10, and 4 were drawn. Goals 16–33 and xG 1.04–1.55 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ramsay7565000.140.10
Kabia7550000.100.13
John8720100.070.13
Mochrie7474000.070.11

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miller8589310.460.13
Braga9726320.470.10
McPake8610350.210.23
Mendy8672300.180.07

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.