Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Hibernian v Celtic

Sunday 25 October 2026, 12:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 10

Forecast

HibernianCeltic
Expected goals1.001.84
Win20%57%
Expected Points0.831.94
Clean sheet16%37%

Hibernian 20%Draw 24%Celtic 57%

Most likely score 1–1, 11%. Both sides score 54%.

Celtic goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+6%6%3%1%5%6%3%1%3%5%5%3%1%1%2%2%1%10%10%11%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 20 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawCeltic win
Hibernian
Top six43%57%44%37%
11th7%4%6%8%
Bottom5%2%5%6%
Celtic
Title83%77%81%86%
Rangers
Title17%23%18%14%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. L1–217 OctFalkirk (H)xG 1.35–0.74
  2. L0–110 OctDundee United (A)xG 0.77–1.68
  3. D1–119 SepAberdeen (H)xG 1.40–0.70
  4. L0–115 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.45–2.21
  5. L1–26 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.61–2.32
  6. L1–33 SepHearts (H)xG 1.47–0.86

Celtic

  1. W7–118 OctHearts (H)xG 4.23–1.20
  2. W2–011 OctMotherwell (A)xG 2.85–1.10
  3. L0–120 SepRangers (H)xG 0.39–1.81
  4. W1–09 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.80–0.69
  5. W2–15 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 3.19–1.95
  6. W3–02 SepAberdeen (H)xG 2.67–0.68

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianCeltic
Position12th1st
Played99
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠1–⁠68–⁠0–⁠1
Points7 (0.78 per game)24 (2.67 per game)
Expected Points per game1.382.31
Goals9–⁠1423–⁠5
xG per game1.56–⁠1.552.93–⁠1.05
Home: points, xG per game0.20, 1.52–⁠1.342.40, 2.60–⁠0.95
Away: points, xG per game1.50, 1.60–⁠1.813.00, 3.33–⁠1.18
ManagerMarink Reedijk (2)Martin O'Neill (27)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackHibernian1.32, 5thCeltic2.17, 1stDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.28, 4thCeltic0.88, 1st

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctHibernian attack: 1.32Celtic attack: 2.172.171.32CelticHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctHibernian defence: 1.28Celtic defence: 0.881.280.88

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−15%−2%+121%−48%
Counter-attacks−22%−8%+195%−35%
Set pieces+5%−15%−8%+5%
Penalties+71%+14%−100%−43%
Headers−42%+2%+164%−27%
Left side−12%−3%+159%−62%
Centre−26%+6%+87%−13%
Right side+16%−28%+61%−42%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdCeltic concededLeft side−12%−42%Centre−26%−13%Right side+16%−62%Open play−15%−48%Counter-attacks−22%−35%Set pieces+5%+5%Headers−42%−27%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdHibernian concededLeft side+159%−28%Centre+87%+6%Right side+61%−3%Open play+121%−2%Counter-attacks+195%−8%Set pieces−8%−15%Headers+164%+2%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianCeltic

1.56xG2.93
1.55xG against1.05
53%Possession60%
16.4Shots20.3
13.0Shots against11.9
4.2Shots on target9.2
2.0Big chances5.2
31.3Touches in the opposition box38.2
459Passes605
81%Pass accuracy88%
6.8Corners9.0
55%Field tilt68%
44.7Final-third entries62.3
15.0Box entries24.5
14.7Passes per defensive action13.0

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level321.081.72
Ahead151.552.02
Behind431.911.25

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level242.231.23
Ahead573.340.98
Behind102.161.05

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.091–2
16–300.180.202–2
31–450.280.411–6
46–600.290.282–0
61–750.280.162–1
76–900.370.401–3

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.400.126–0
16–300.400.251–1
31–450.710.247–2
46–600.570.076–1
61–750.310.202–1
76–900.540.161–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWSallinger 9Kerr 9Passlack 2O'Hora 2Hanley 4Ivezić 2Obita 4Iredale 2Abdulai 1Passlack 6Wright 1Megwa 1Mulligan 9Chaiwa 6Devaney 2Wright 1Mayor 6Wright 1Iredale 1Elding 3Boyle 3Šuto 1Lowe 4Boyle 2Šuto 2Klidje 4McGrath 2Boyle 13-4-3 in 3 of 9 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (3), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTSinisalo 8Johnstone 1Donovan 6Johnston 2Carter-Vickers 1Carter-Vickers 5Murray 3Trusty 6Scales 4Tierney 6Scales 3McGregor 8Baur 6Oxlade-Chamberlain 2Engels 2Hassan 5Durán 3McCowan 1Nygren 7Donovan 1Sørensen 1Yang 5Tounekti 2Nygren 1Durán 5Høgh 44-2-3-1 in 7 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 3-4-3 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
3 May 2026Hibernian1–2CelticxG 0.36–2.81
22 February 2026Celtic1–2HibernianxG 1.94–0.80
30 November 2025Hibernian1–2CelticxG 1.65–1.33
27 September 2025Celtic0–0HibernianxG 2.80–0.70
10 May 2025Celtic3–1HibernianxG 2.26–0.82
22 February 2025Hibernian2–1CelticxG 0.67–1.78

22 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 3, Celtic won 13, and 6 were drawn. Goals 19–46 and xG 0.95–2.38 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Boyle6505300.550.20
Passlack8734020.070.26
Mayor6539100.060.15
Mulligan9795010.130.08

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nygren8654630.730.23
Durán8591550.560.33
Tierney6459130.310.44
Baur6550100.290.19

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.