Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Hearts v St. Johnstone

Saturday 3 April 2027, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 32

Forecast

HeartsSt. Johnstone
Expected goals1.990.83
Win64%14%
Expected Points2.140.64
Clean sheet44%14%

Hearts 64%Draw 22%St. Johnstone 14%

Most likely score 2–0, 12%. Both sides score 49%.

St. Johnstone goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+6%4%2%4%1%4%1%8%6%3%4%3%1%2%1%11%10%12%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Hearts

  1. L1–718 OctCeltic (A)xG 1.20–4.23
  2. W5–010 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.43–0.68
  3. D1–119 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 1.92–0.39
  4. L1–215 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.79–2.14
  5. W2–16 SepDundee FC (H)xG 1.93–0.42
  6. W3–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.86–1.47

St. Johnstone

  1. D1–117 OctDundee United (H)xG 1.29–1.02
  2. W1–011 OctAberdeen (A)xG 1.10–1.23
  3. D1–119 SepFalkirk (H)xG 0.94–1.29
  4. L0–19 SepCeltic (H)xG 0.69–1.80
  5. W2–16 SepHibernian (H)xG 2.32–1.61
  6. D1–12 SepDundee FC (A)xG 1.08–2.07

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsSt. Johnstone
Position3rd5th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠1–⁠33–⁠3–⁠3
Points16 (1.78 per game)12 (1.33 per game)
Expected Points per game1.701.21
Goals20–⁠1511–⁠11
xG per game1.93–⁠1.541.32–⁠1.52
Home: points, xG per game3.00, 2.44–⁠0.741.60, 1.45–⁠1.33
Away: points, xG per game0.80, 1.52–⁠2.181.00, 1.16–⁠1.77
ManagerWouter Vrancken (9)Simo Valakari (40)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackHearts1.52, 3rdSt. Johnstone1.08, 12thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.16, 3rdSt. Johnstone1.52, 10th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHearts attack: 1.52St. Johnstone attack: 1.081.521.08St. JohnstoneHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHearts defence: 1.16St. Johnstone defence: 1.521.521.16

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsSt. Johnstone
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+6%average−26%average
Counter-attacks−20%−10%−50%−11%
Set pieces+32%+4%−18%+1%
Penalties+129%−43%+71%−43%
Headers−14%+40%−17%+29%
Left side+41%+6%−14%+7%
Centre+13%+15%−18%−10%
Right side−35%−30%−58%+5%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdSt. Johnstone concededLeft side+41%+5%Centre+13%−10%Right side−35%+7%Open play+6%averageCounter-attacks−20%−11%Set pieces+32%+1%Headers−14%+29%

St. Johnstone attacking

St. Johnstone createdHearts concededLeft side−14%−30%Centre−18%+15%Right side−58%+6%Open play−26%averageCounter-attacks−50%−10%Set pieces−18%+4%Headers−17%+40%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsSt. Johnstone

1.93xG1.32
1.54xG against1.52
54%Possession46%
17.1Shots10.0
10.4Shots against14.0
5.3Shots on target3.6
2.6Big chances2.2
29.7Touches in the opposition box18.2
455Passes432
80%Pass accuracy79%
6.9Corners3.3
59%Field tilt49%
38.2Final-third entries39.7
16.5Box entries10.9
12.1Passes per defensive action18.3

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level211.751.55
Ahead412.011.30
Behind281.951.87

St. Johnstone

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.631.53
Ahead250.841.58
Behind211.251.44

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.164–3
16–300.250.102–2
31–450.510.355–3
46–600.340.283–3
61–750.200.132–1
76–900.330.514–3

St. Johnstone

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.141–1
16–300.250.183–1
31–450.260.291–2
46–600.330.282–4
61–750.130.201–1
76–900.200.433–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTReus 9Altena 8Borchgrevink 1McCart 5McEntee 4Fagan-Walcott 2Findlay 6Milne 1McCart 2Kingsley 2Milne 2Magnússon 3McEntee 2Ageu 1Mendy 7Spittal 3Renaud 1Miller 6Kerjota 3Braga 7Guendouz 1Ba-Sy 1McPake 8Miller 1Wilson 6Braga 2Ba-Sy 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1)

St. Johnstone

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTSteward 9Smith 6Todd 3Mitchell 6Finlayson 3Diabate 8Foulds 1Alić 7Foulds 2McAlear 8Stanton 1Holt 9Stanton 5Campbell 2Steven 1Cotterill 3Paton 2Gullan 2Steven 4Paton 3Gullan 2Fowler 8Gullan 14-2-3-1 in 5 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (5), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
29 August 2026Hearts2–1St. JohnstonexG 2.20–1.28
14 May 2025Hearts2–1St. JohnstonexG 0.79–0.94
23 February 2025St. Johnstone1–2HeartsxG 2.02–2.18
22 December 2024Hearts2–1St. JohnstonexG 0.75–1.28
2 November 2024St. Johnstone1–2HeartsxG 1.39–1.44
7 February 2024St. Johnstone0–1HeartsxG 0.45–0.70

14 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 12, St. Johnstone won 1, and 1 was a draw. Goals 27–12 and xG 1.58–1.19 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miller8589310.460.13
Braga9726320.470.10
McPake8610350.210.23
Mendy8672300.180.07

St. Johnstone

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Fowler8603610.570.05
Paton5452100.420.05
Alić7630110.070.18
Stanton7627010.090.05

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.