Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Kilmarnock v Hearts

Saturday 13 March 2027, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 30

Forecast

KilmarnockHearts
Expected goals1.161.63
Win27%48%
Expected Points1.061.69
Clean sheet20%31%

Kilmarnock 27%Draw 26%Hearts 48%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 56%.

Hearts goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+7%8%4%2%7%5%2%4%7%5%3%1%2%3%2%1%9%12%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. W3–217 OctMotherwell (H)xG 1.64–3.37
  2. L1–310 OctRangers (A)xG 1.15–1.42
  3. D1–119 SepHearts (H)xG 0.39–1.92
  4. W1–015 SepHibernian (A)xG 2.21–1.45
  5. D0–05 SepAberdeen (A)xG 1.11–1.08
  6. L0–12 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.41–0.85

Hearts

  1. L1–718 OctCeltic (A)xG 1.20–4.23
  2. W5–010 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.43–0.68
  3. D1–119 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 1.92–0.39
  4. L1–215 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.79–2.14
  5. W2–16 SepDundee FC (H)xG 1.93–0.42
  6. W3–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.86–1.47

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockHearts
Position11th3rd
Played99
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠2–⁠55–⁠1–⁠3
Points8 (0.89 per game)16 (1.78 per game)
Expected Points per game0.771.70
Goals10–⁠2020–⁠15
xG per game1.10–⁠2.341.93–⁠1.54
Home: points, xG per game0.80, 0.91–⁠3.013.00, 2.44–⁠0.74
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.35–⁠1.490.80, 1.52–⁠2.18
ManagerNeil McCann (25)Wouter Vrancken (9)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackKilmarnock1.17, 8thHearts1.52, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.62, 12thHearts1.16, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctKilmarnock attack: 1.17Hearts attack: 1.521.521.17HeartsKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctKilmarnock defence: 1.62Hearts defence: 1.161.621.16

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−15%+53%+6%average
Counter-attacks−69%+102%−20%−10%
Set pieces−25%+31%+32%+4%
Penalties−100%−43%+129%−43%
Headers−44%+116%−14%+40%
Left side−14%+49%+41%+6%
Centre−33%+101%+13%+15%
Right side−20%−15%−35%−30%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHearts concededLeft side−14%−30%Centre−33%+15%Right side−20%+6%Open play−15%averageCounter-attacks−69%−10%Set pieces−25%+4%Headers−44%+40%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+41%−15%Centre+13%+101%Right side−35%+49%Open play+6%+53%Counter-attacks−20%+102%Set pieces+32%+31%Headers−14%+116%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockHearts

1.10xG1.93
2.34xG against1.54
43%Possession54%
10.9Shots17.1
18.2Shots against10.4
4.2Shots on target5.3
2.0Big chances2.6
21.6Touches in the opposition box29.7
393Passes455
77%Pass accuracy80%
4.7Corners6.9
39%Field tilt59%
36.9Final-third entries38.2
10.5Box entries16.5
16.5Passes per defensive action12.1

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level311.082.19
Ahead191.332.28
Behind401.022.47

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level211.751.55
Ahead412.011.30
Behind281.951.87

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.281–4
16–300.090.501–3
31–450.180.412–5
46–600.240.424–3
61–750.200.251–2
76–900.200.471–3

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.164–3
16–300.250.102–2
31–450.510.355–3
46–600.340.283–3
61–750.200.132–1
76–900.330.514–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTStryjek 6Ferrie 3Ring 3Brandon 3Kamara 2McCarthy 6Schilte-Brown 1Stanger 8Yfeko 2Deas 1Schjønning-L… 9Schjønning-LarsenTshibola 4O'Hara 2Lowery 8Rice 3Ring 1Ring 4Kiltie 2McCarthy 1John-Jules 4Kiltie 3Lowery 1Hugill 4Kiltie 4Cleșcenco 1Hugill 4John-Jules 4Daniëls 14-2-3-1 in 2 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTReus 9Altena 8Borchgrevink 1McCart 5McEntee 4Fagan-Walcott 2Findlay 6Milne 1McCart 2Kingsley 2Milne 2Magnússon 3McEntee 2Ageu 1Mendy 7Spittal 3Renaud 1Miller 6Kerjota 3Braga 7Guendouz 1Ba-Sy 1McPake 8Miller 1Wilson 6Braga 2Ba-Sy 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
19 September 2026Kilmarnock1–1HeartsxG 0.39–1.92
14 March 2026Kilmarnock1–0HeartsxG 1.27–1.06
3 December 2025Hearts1–1KilmarnockxG 2.19–1.80
18 October 2025Kilmarnock0–3HeartsxG 0.43–2.88
18 May 2025Kilmarnock0–1HeartsxG 1.07–0.68
25 January 2025Hearts3–2KilmarnockxG 2.51–1.05

15 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 4, Hearts won 5, and 6 were drawn. Goals 14–18 and xG 1.28–1.50 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kiltie9776300.350.18
John-Jules8560100.250.12
Hugill9810110.240.04
Ring8623000.070.18

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miller8589310.460.13
Braga9726320.470.10
McPake8610350.210.23
Mendy8672300.180.07

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.