Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

St. Johnstone v Kilmarnock

Saturday 20 February 2027, 15:00 · McDiarmid Park · Round 28

Forecast

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock
Expected goals1.501.18
Win44%29%
Expected Points1.591.14
Clean sheet31%22%

St. Johnstone 44%Draw 27%Kilmarnock 29%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

Kilmarnock goalsSt. Johnstone goals0123456+0123456+7%7%5%2%7%3%8%9%5%2%4%5%3%1%1%2%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

St. Johnstone

  1. D1–117 OctDundee United (H)xG 1.29–1.02
  2. W1–011 OctAberdeen (A)xG 1.10–1.23
  3. D1–119 SepFalkirk (H)xG 0.94–1.29
  4. L0–19 SepCeltic (H)xG 0.69–1.80
  5. W2–16 SepHibernian (H)xG 2.32–1.61
  6. D1–12 SepDundee FC (A)xG 1.08–2.07

Kilmarnock

  1. W3–217 OctMotherwell (H)xG 1.64–3.37
  2. L1–310 OctRangers (A)xG 1.15–1.42
  3. D1–119 SepHearts (H)xG 0.39–1.92
  4. W1–015 SepHibernian (A)xG 2.21–1.45
  5. D0–05 SepAberdeen (A)xG 1.11–1.08
  6. L0–12 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.41–0.85

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock
Position5th11th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠3–⁠32–⁠2–⁠5
Points12 (1.33 per game)8 (0.89 per game)
Expected Points per game1.210.77
Goals11–⁠1110–⁠20
xG per game1.32–⁠1.521.10–⁠2.34
Home: points, xG per game1.60, 1.45–⁠1.330.80, 0.91–⁠3.01
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.16–⁠1.771.00, 1.35–⁠1.49
ManagerSimo Valakari (40)Neil McCann (25)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackSt. Johnstone1.08, 12thKilmarnock1.17, 8thDefence (lower is better)St. Johnstone1.52, 10thKilmarnock1.62, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctSt. Johnstone attack: 1.08Kilmarnock attack: 1.171.171.08KilmarnockSt. JohnstoneDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctSt. Johnstone defence: 1.52Kilmarnock defence: 1.621.621.52

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−26%average−15%+53%
Counter-attacks−50%−11%−69%+102%
Set pieces−18%+1%−25%+31%
Penalties+71%−43%−100%−43%
Headers−17%+29%−44%+116%
Left side−14%+7%−14%+49%
Centre−18%−10%−33%+101%
Right side−58%+5%−20%−15%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Johnstone attacking

St. Johnstone createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−14%−15%Centre−18%+101%Right side−58%+49%Open play−26%+53%Counter-attacks−50%+102%Set pieces−18%+31%Headers−17%+116%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdSt. Johnstone concededLeft side−14%+5%Centre−33%−10%Right side−20%+7%Open play−15%averageCounter-attacks−69%−11%Set pieces−25%+1%Headers−44%+29%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock

1.32xG1.10
1.52xG against2.34
46%Possession43%
10.0Shots10.9
14.0Shots against18.2
3.6Shots on target4.2
2.2Big chances2.0
18.2Touches in the opposition box21.6
432Passes393
79%Pass accuracy77%
3.3Corners4.7
49%Field tilt39%
39.7Final-third entries36.9
10.9Box entries10.5
18.3Passes per defensive action16.5

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

St. Johnstone

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.631.53
Ahead250.841.58
Behind211.251.44

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level311.082.19
Ahead191.332.28
Behind401.022.47

xG by period

St. Johnstone

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.141–1
16–300.250.183–1
31–450.260.291–2
46–600.330.282–4
61–750.130.201–1
76–900.200.433–2

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.281–4
16–300.090.501–3
31–450.180.412–5
46–600.240.424–3
61–750.200.251–2
76–900.200.471–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Johnstone

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTSteward 9Smith 6Todd 3Mitchell 6Finlayson 3Diabate 8Foulds 1Alić 7Foulds 2McAlear 8Stanton 1Holt 9Stanton 5Campbell 2Steven 1Cotterill 3Paton 2Gullan 2Steven 4Paton 3Gullan 2Fowler 8Gullan 14-2-3-1 in 5 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (5), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTStryjek 6Ferrie 3Ring 3Brandon 3Kamara 2McCarthy 6Schilte-Brown 1Stanger 8Yfeko 2Deas 1Schjønning-L… 9Schjønning-LarsenTshibola 4O'Hara 2Lowery 8Rice 3Ring 1Ring 4Kiltie 2McCarthy 1John-Jules 4Kiltie 3Lowery 1Hugill 4Kiltie 4Cleșcenco 1Hugill 4John-Jules 4Daniëls 14-2-3-1 in 2 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
2 August 2026St. Johnstone4–3KilmarnockxG 2.03–0.92
3 May 2025St. Johnstone0–2KilmarnockxG 1.43–1.39
15 February 2025Kilmarnock3–1St. JohnstonexG 1.40–0.67
23 November 2024St. Johnstone1–0KilmarnockxG 1.02–0.45
11 August 2024Kilmarnock0–3St. JohnstonexG 1.74–1.79
13 April 2024St. Johnstone0–2KilmarnockxG 1.22–3.51

15 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Johnstone won 9, Kilmarnock won 5, and 1 was a draw. Goals 22–19 and xG 1.27–1.27 per game.

Key players

St. Johnstone

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Fowler8603610.570.05
Paton5452100.420.05
Alić7630110.070.18
Stanton7627010.090.05

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kiltie9776300.350.18
John-Jules8560100.250.12
Hugill9810110.240.04
Ring8623000.070.18

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.