Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Hibernian v Kilmarnock

Saturday 23 January 2027, 15:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 24

Forecast

HibernianKilmarnock
Expected goals1.830.99
Win57%20%
Expected Points1.940.83
Clean sheet37%16%

Hibernian 57%Draw 24%Kilmarnock 20%

Most likely score 1–1, 11%. Both sides score 53%.

Kilmarnock goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+6%5%3%1%5%2%5%2%6%6%3%1%3%3%1%1%1%10%11%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Hibernian

  1. L1–217 OctFalkirk (H)xG 1.35–0.74
  2. L0–110 OctDundee United (A)xG 0.77–1.68
  3. D1–119 SepAberdeen (H)xG 1.40–0.70
  4. L0–115 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.45–2.21
  5. L1–26 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.61–2.32
  6. L1–33 SepHearts (H)xG 1.47–0.86

Kilmarnock

  1. W3–217 OctMotherwell (H)xG 1.64–3.37
  2. L1–310 OctRangers (A)xG 1.15–1.42
  3. D1–119 SepHearts (H)xG 0.39–1.92
  4. W1–015 SepHibernian (A)xG 2.21–1.45
  5. D0–05 SepAberdeen (A)xG 1.11–1.08
  6. L0–12 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.41–0.85

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianKilmarnock
Position12th11th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠1–⁠62–⁠2–⁠5
Points7 (0.78 per game)8 (0.89 per game)
Expected Points per game1.380.77
Goals9–⁠1410–⁠20
xG per game1.56–⁠1.551.10–⁠2.34
Home: points, xG per game0.20, 1.52–⁠1.340.80, 0.91–⁠3.01
Away: points, xG per game1.50, 1.60–⁠1.811.00, 1.35–⁠1.49
ManagerMarink Reedijk (2)Neil McCann (25)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackHibernian1.32, 5thKilmarnock1.17, 8thDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.28, 4thKilmarnock1.62, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHibernian attack: 1.32Kilmarnock attack: 1.171.321.17KilmarnockHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHibernian defence: 1.28Kilmarnock defence: 1.621.621.28

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−15%−2%−15%+53%
Counter-attacks−22%−8%−69%+102%
Set pieces+5%−15%−25%+31%
Penalties+71%+14%−100%−43%
Headers−42%+2%−44%+116%
Left side−12%−3%−14%+49%
Centre−26%+6%−33%+101%
Right side+16%−28%−20%−15%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−12%−15%Centre−26%+101%Right side+16%+49%Open play−15%+53%Counter-attacks−22%+102%Set pieces+5%+31%Headers−42%+116%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHibernian concededLeft side−14%−28%Centre−33%+6%Right side−20%−3%Open play−15%−2%Counter-attacks−69%−8%Set pieces−25%−15%Headers−44%+2%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianKilmarnock

1.56xG1.10
1.55xG against2.34
53%Possession43%
16.4Shots10.9
13.0Shots against18.2
4.2Shots on target4.2
2.0Big chances2.0
31.3Touches in the opposition box21.6
459Passes393
81%Pass accuracy77%
6.8Corners4.7
55%Field tilt39%
44.7Final-third entries36.9
15.0Box entries10.5
14.7Passes per defensive action16.5

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level321.081.72
Ahead151.552.02
Behind431.911.25

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level311.082.19
Ahead191.332.28
Behind401.022.47

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.091–2
16–300.180.202–2
31–450.280.411–6
46–600.290.282–0
61–750.280.162–1
76–900.370.401–3

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.281–4
16–300.090.501–3
31–450.180.412–5
46–600.240.424–3
61–750.200.251–2
76–900.200.471–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWSallinger 9Kerr 9Passlack 2O'Hora 2Hanley 4Ivezić 2Obita 4Iredale 2Abdulai 1Passlack 6Wright 1Megwa 1Mulligan 9Chaiwa 6Devaney 2Wright 1Mayor 6Wright 1Iredale 1Elding 3Boyle 3Šuto 1Lowe 4Boyle 2Šuto 2Klidje 4McGrath 2Boyle 13-4-3 in 3 of 9 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (3), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTStryjek 6Ferrie 3Ring 3Brandon 3Kamara 2McCarthy 6Schilte-Brown 1Stanger 8Yfeko 2Deas 1Schjønning-L… 9Schjønning-LarsenTshibola 4O'Hara 2Lowery 8Rice 3Ring 1Ring 4Kiltie 2McCarthy 1John-Jules 4Kiltie 3Lowery 1Hugill 4Kiltie 4Cleșcenco 1Hugill 4John-Jules 4Daniëls 14-2-3-1 in 2 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
15 September 2026Hibernian0–1KilmarnockxG 1.45–2.21
4 April 2026Hibernian3–0KilmarnockxG 2.30–0.60
3 January 2026Kilmarnock1–3HibernianxG 0.44–2.78
10 August 2025Hibernian2–2KilmarnockxG 1.77–0.94
15 March 2025Kilmarnock1–1HibernianxG 0.64–2.01
29 December 2024Hibernian1–0KilmarnockxG 2.32–0.25

16 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 9, Kilmarnock won 2, and 5 were drawn. Goals 24–12 and xG 1.54–0.94 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Boyle6505300.550.20
Passlack8734020.070.26
Mayor6539100.060.15
Mulligan9795010.130.08

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kiltie9776300.350.18
John-Jules8560100.250.12
Hugill9810110.240.04
Ring8623000.070.18

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.