Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Hearts v Kilmarnock

Saturday 2 January 2027, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 22

Forecast

HeartsKilmarnock
Expected goals2.110.90
Win65%14%
Expected Points2.150.64
Clean sheet41%12%

Hearts 65%Draw 21%Kilmarnock 14%

Most likely score 2–0, 11%. Both sides score 53%.

Kilmarnock goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+5%4%2%4%1%4%1%8%7%3%4%4%2%2%2%10%10%11%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Hearts

  1. L1–718 OctCeltic (A)xG 1.20–4.23
  2. W5–010 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.43–0.68
  3. D1–119 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 1.92–0.39
  4. L1–215 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.79–2.14
  5. W2–16 SepDundee FC (H)xG 1.93–0.42
  6. W3–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.86–1.47

Kilmarnock

  1. W3–217 OctMotherwell (H)xG 1.64–3.37
  2. L1–310 OctRangers (A)xG 1.15–1.42
  3. D1–119 SepHearts (H)xG 0.39–1.92
  4. W1–015 SepHibernian (A)xG 2.21–1.45
  5. D0–05 SepAberdeen (A)xG 1.11–1.08
  6. L0–12 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.41–0.85

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsKilmarnock
Position3rd11th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠1–⁠32–⁠2–⁠5
Points16 (1.78 per game)8 (0.89 per game)
Expected Points per game1.700.77
Goals20–⁠1510–⁠20
xG per game1.93–⁠1.541.10–⁠2.34
Home: points, xG per game3.00, 2.44–⁠0.740.80, 0.91–⁠3.01
Away: points, xG per game0.80, 1.52–⁠2.181.00, 1.35–⁠1.49
ManagerWouter Vrancken (9)Neil McCann (25)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackHearts1.52, 3rdKilmarnock1.17, 8thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.16, 3rdKilmarnock1.62, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHearts attack: 1.52Kilmarnock attack: 1.171.521.17KilmarnockHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHearts defence: 1.16Kilmarnock defence: 1.621.621.16

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+6%average−15%+53%
Counter-attacks−20%−10%−69%+102%
Set pieces+32%+4%−25%+31%
Penalties+129%−43%−100%−43%
Headers−14%+40%−44%+116%
Left side+41%+6%−14%+49%
Centre+13%+15%−33%+101%
Right side−35%−30%−20%−15%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+41%−15%Centre+13%+101%Right side−35%+49%Open play+6%+53%Counter-attacks−20%+102%Set pieces+32%+31%Headers−14%+116%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHearts concededLeft side−14%−30%Centre−33%+15%Right side−20%+6%Open play−15%averageCounter-attacks−69%−10%Set pieces−25%+4%Headers−44%+40%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsKilmarnock

1.93xG1.10
1.54xG against2.34
54%Possession43%
17.1Shots10.9
10.4Shots against18.2
5.3Shots on target4.2
2.6Big chances2.0
29.7Touches in the opposition box21.6
455Passes393
80%Pass accuracy77%
6.9Corners4.7
59%Field tilt39%
38.2Final-third entries36.9
16.5Box entries10.5
12.1Passes per defensive action16.5

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level211.751.55
Ahead412.011.30
Behind281.951.87

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level311.082.19
Ahead191.332.28
Behind401.022.47

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.164–3
16–300.250.102–2
31–450.510.355–3
46–600.340.283–3
61–750.200.132–1
76–900.330.514–3

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.281–4
16–300.090.501–3
31–450.180.412–5
46–600.240.424–3
61–750.200.251–2
76–900.200.471–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTReus 9Altena 8Borchgrevink 1McCart 5McEntee 4Fagan-Walcott 2Findlay 6Milne 1McCart 2Kingsley 2Milne 2Magnússon 3McEntee 2Ageu 1Mendy 7Spittal 3Renaud 1Miller 6Kerjota 3Braga 7Guendouz 1Ba-Sy 1McPake 8Miller 1Wilson 6Braga 2Ba-Sy 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTStryjek 6Ferrie 3Ring 3Brandon 3Kamara 2McCarthy 6Schilte-Brown 1Stanger 8Yfeko 2Deas 1Schjønning-L… 9Schjønning-LarsenTshibola 4O'Hara 2Lowery 8Rice 3Ring 1Ring 4Kiltie 2McCarthy 1John-Jules 4Kiltie 3Lowery 1Hugill 4Kiltie 4Cleșcenco 1Hugill 4John-Jules 4Daniëls 14-2-3-1 in 2 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
19 September 2026Kilmarnock1–1HeartsxG 0.39–1.92
14 March 2026Kilmarnock1–0HeartsxG 1.27–1.06
3 December 2025Hearts1–1KilmarnockxG 2.19–1.80
18 October 2025Kilmarnock0–3HeartsxG 0.43–2.88
18 May 2025Kilmarnock0–1HeartsxG 1.07–0.68
25 January 2025Hearts3–2KilmarnockxG 2.51–1.05

15 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 5, Kilmarnock won 4, and 6 were drawn. Goals 18–14 and xG 1.50–1.28 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miller8589310.460.13
Braga9726320.470.10
McPake8610350.210.23
Mendy8672300.180.07

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kiltie9776300.350.18
John-Jules8560100.250.12
Hugill9810110.240.04
Ring8623000.070.18

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.