Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

St. Johnstone v Hearts

Wednesday 30 December 2026, 19:45 · McDiarmid Park · Round 21

Forecast

St. JohnstoneHearts
Expected goals1.071.53
Win26%47%
Expected Points1.051.69
Clean sheet22%34%

St. Johnstone 26%Draw 27%Hearts 47%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 52%.

Hearts goalsSt. Johnstone goals0123456+0123456+8%9%4%2%7%5%2%4%7%5%3%1%2%2%2%11%13%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

St. Johnstone

  1. D1–117 OctDundee United (H)xG 1.29–1.02
  2. W1–011 OctAberdeen (A)xG 1.10–1.23
  3. D1–119 SepFalkirk (H)xG 0.94–1.29
  4. L0–19 SepCeltic (H)xG 0.69–1.80
  5. W2–16 SepHibernian (H)xG 2.32–1.61
  6. D1–12 SepDundee FC (A)xG 1.08–2.07

Hearts

  1. L1–718 OctCeltic (A)xG 1.20–4.23
  2. W5–010 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.43–0.68
  3. D1–119 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 1.92–0.39
  4. L1–215 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.79–2.14
  5. W2–16 SepDundee FC (H)xG 1.93–0.42
  6. W3–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.86–1.47

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. JohnstoneHearts
Position5th3rd
Played99
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠3–⁠35–⁠1–⁠3
Points12 (1.33 per game)16 (1.78 per game)
Expected Points per game1.211.70
Goals11–⁠1120–⁠15
xG per game1.32–⁠1.521.93–⁠1.54
Home: points, xG per game1.60, 1.45–⁠1.333.00, 2.44–⁠0.74
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.16–⁠1.770.80, 1.52–⁠2.18
ManagerSimo Valakari (40)Wouter Vrancken (9)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackSt. Johnstone1.08, 12thHearts1.52, 3rdDefence (lower is better)St. Johnstone1.52, 10thHearts1.16, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctSt. Johnstone attack: 1.08Hearts attack: 1.521.521.08HeartsSt. JohnstoneDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctSt. Johnstone defence: 1.52Hearts defence: 1.161.521.16

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. JohnstoneHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−26%average+6%average
Counter-attacks−50%−11%−20%−10%
Set pieces−18%+1%+32%+4%
Penalties+71%−43%+129%−43%
Headers−17%+29%−14%+40%
Left side−14%+7%+41%+6%
Centre−18%−10%+13%+15%
Right side−58%+5%−35%−30%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Johnstone attacking

St. Johnstone createdHearts concededLeft side−14%−30%Centre−18%+15%Right side−58%+6%Open play−26%averageCounter-attacks−50%−10%Set pieces−18%+4%Headers−17%+40%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdSt. Johnstone concededLeft side+41%+5%Centre+13%−10%Right side−35%+7%Open play+6%averageCounter-attacks−20%−11%Set pieces+32%+1%Headers−14%+29%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. JohnstoneHearts

1.32xG1.93
1.52xG against1.54
46%Possession54%
10.0Shots17.1
14.0Shots against10.4
3.6Shots on target5.3
2.2Big chances2.6
18.2Touches in the opposition box29.7
432Passes455
79%Pass accuracy80%
3.3Corners6.9
49%Field tilt59%
39.7Final-third entries38.2
10.9Box entries16.5
18.3Passes per defensive action12.1

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

St. Johnstone

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.631.53
Ahead250.841.58
Behind211.251.44

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level211.751.55
Ahead412.011.30
Behind281.951.87

xG by period

St. Johnstone

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.141–1
16–300.250.183–1
31–450.260.291–2
46–600.330.282–4
61–750.130.201–1
76–900.200.433–2

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.164–3
16–300.250.102–2
31–450.510.355–3
46–600.340.283–3
61–750.200.132–1
76–900.330.514–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Johnstone

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTSteward 9Smith 6Todd 3Mitchell 6Finlayson 3Diabate 8Foulds 1Alić 7Foulds 2McAlear 8Stanton 1Holt 9Stanton 5Campbell 2Steven 1Cotterill 3Paton 2Gullan 2Steven 4Paton 3Gullan 2Fowler 8Gullan 14-2-3-1 in 5 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (5), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTReus 9Altena 8Borchgrevink 1McCart 5McEntee 4Fagan-Walcott 2Findlay 6Milne 1McCart 2Kingsley 2Milne 2Magnússon 3McEntee 2Ageu 1Mendy 7Spittal 3Renaud 1Miller 6Kerjota 3Braga 7Guendouz 1Ba-Sy 1McPake 8Miller 1Wilson 6Braga 2Ba-Sy 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
29 August 2026Hearts2–1St. JohnstonexG 2.20–1.28
14 May 2025Hearts2–1St. JohnstonexG 0.79–0.94
23 February 2025St. Johnstone1–2HeartsxG 2.02–2.18
22 December 2024Hearts2–1St. JohnstonexG 0.75–1.28
2 November 2024St. Johnstone1–2HeartsxG 1.39–1.44
7 February 2024St. Johnstone0–1HeartsxG 0.45–0.70

14 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Johnstone won 1, Hearts won 12, and 1 was a draw. Goals 12–27 and xG 1.19–1.58 per game.

Key players

St. Johnstone

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Fowler8603610.570.05
Paton5452100.420.05
Alić7630110.070.18
Stanton7627010.090.05

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miller8589310.460.13
Braga9726320.470.10
McPake8610350.210.23
Mendy8672300.180.07

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.