Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Hearts v Motherwell

Sunday 13 December 2026, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 18

Forecast

HeartsMotherwell
Expected goals1.721.03
Win53%22%
Expected Points1.840.91
Clean sheet36%18%

Hearts 53%Draw 25%Motherwell 22%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 53%.

Motherwell goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+7%6%3%1%6%2%5%2%5%6%3%1%2%2%1%10%12%9%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Hearts

  1. L1–718 OctCeltic (A)xG 1.20–4.23
  2. W5–010 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.43–0.68
  3. D1–119 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 1.92–0.39
  4. L1–215 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.79–2.14
  5. W2–16 SepDundee FC (H)xG 1.93–0.42
  6. W3–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.86–1.47

Motherwell

  1. L2–317 OctKilmarnock (A)xG 3.37–1.64
  2. L0–211 OctCeltic (H)xG 1.10–2.85
  3. L1–219 SepDundee FC (A)xG 1.10–1.38
  4. L0–415 SepAberdeen (H)xG 0.85–0.90
  5. L0–15 SepRangers (A)xG 0.70–4.29
  6. W3–02 SepDundee United (H)xG 2.39–0.16

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsMotherwell
Position3rd10th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠1–⁠32–⁠2–⁠5
Points16 (1.78 per game)8 (0.89 per game)
Expected Points per game1.701.40
Goals20–⁠1511–⁠16
xG per game1.93–⁠1.541.71–⁠1.85
Home: points, xG per game3.00, 2.44–⁠0.741.00, 1.40–⁠1.11
Away: points, xG per game0.80, 1.52–⁠2.180.80, 1.96–⁠2.43
ManagerWouter Vrancken (9)Alfred Johansson (9)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackHearts1.52, 3rdMotherwell1.33, 4thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.16, 3rdMotherwell1.32, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHearts attack: 1.52Motherwell attack: 1.331.521.33MotherwellHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHearts defence: 1.16Motherwell defence: 1.321.321.16

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsMotherwell
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+6%average+23%+3%
Counter-attacks−20%−10%+12%+74%
Set pieces+32%+4%−48%−11%
Penalties+129%−43%+14%+71%
Headers−14%+40%−41%−13%
Left side+41%+6%−39%−14%
Centre+13%+15%+9%+1%
Right side−35%−30%+49%+40%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdMotherwell concededLeft side+41%+40%Centre+13%+1%Right side−35%−14%Open play+6%+3%Counter-attacks−20%+74%Set pieces+32%−11%Headers−14%−13%

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdHearts concededLeft side−39%−30%Centre+9%+15%Right side+49%+6%Open play+23%averageCounter-attacks+12%−10%Set pieces−48%+4%Headers−41%+40%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsMotherwell

1.93xG1.71
1.54xG against1.85
54%Possession57%
17.1Shots14.2
10.4Shots against16.3
5.3Shots on target4.7
2.6Big chances2.6
29.7Touches in the opposition box24.9
455Passes561
80%Pass accuracy87%
6.9Corners4.9
59%Field tilt59%
38.2Final-third entries50.8
16.5Box entries14.1
12.1Passes per defensive action14.8

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level211.751.55
Ahead412.011.30
Behind281.951.87

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level352.001.50
Ahead152.331.42
Behind401.232.32

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.164–3
16–300.250.102–2
31–450.510.355–3
46–600.340.283–3
61–750.200.132–1
76–900.330.514–3

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.211–3
16–300.420.303–1
31–450.280.252–5
46–600.270.441–4
61–750.240.292–1
76–900.200.362–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTReus 9Altena 8Borchgrevink 1McCart 5McEntee 4Fagan-Walcott 2Findlay 6Milne 1McCart 2Kingsley 2Milne 2Magnússon 3McEntee 2Ageu 1Mendy 7Spittal 3Renaud 1Miller 6Kerjota 3Braga 7Guendouz 1Ba-Sy 1McPake 8Miller 1Wilson 6Braga 2Ba-Sy 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Motherwell

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTPaulsen 9Sparrow 9Girdwood-Rei… 4Girdwood-ReichKnight-Lebel 3O'Donnell 2Moormann 9Longelo 8Williams 1Fadinger 9Priestman 2Hodge 6Levitt 1Maswanhise 5Vogt 3Kanga 1Lowry 5Charles-Cook 3Booth 1Said 5Longelo 1Houlden 1Houlden 3Maswanhise 2Said 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (2), 4-2-2-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
9 May 2026Motherwell1–1HeartsxG 0.55–1.33
11 April 2026Hearts3–1MotherwellxG 1.74–2.21
29 November 2025Motherwell0–0HeartsxG 0.58–0.41
23 August 2025Hearts3–3MotherwellxG 2.21–1.52
10 May 2025Hearts3–0MotherwellxG 0.52–0.42
12 April 2025Motherwell0–0HeartsxG 0.27–1.12

18 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 9, Motherwell won 5, and 4 were drawn. Goals 27–18 and xG 1.45–1.33 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miller8589310.460.13
Braga9726320.470.10
McPake8610350.210.23
Mendy8672300.180.07

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Maswanhise7581120.530.15
Lowry7602310.300.23
Longelo9746000.070.28
Said6533100.160.18

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.