Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Hibernian v Hearts

Saturday 10 April 2027, 15:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 33

Forecast

HibernianHearts
Expected goals1.311.29
Win37%36%
Expected Points1.381.34
Clean sheet28%27%

Hibernian 37%Draw 28%Hearts 36%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

Hearts goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+8%9%6%3%9%8%3%1%6%8%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Hibernian

  1. L1–217 OctFalkirk (H)xG 1.35–0.74
  2. L0–110 OctDundee United (A)xG 0.77–1.68
  3. D1–119 SepAberdeen (H)xG 1.40–0.70
  4. L0–115 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.45–2.21
  5. L1–26 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.61–2.32
  6. L1–33 SepHearts (H)xG 1.47–0.86

Hearts

  1. L1–718 OctCeltic (A)xG 1.20–4.23
  2. W5–010 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.43–0.68
  3. D1–119 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 1.92–0.39
  4. L1–215 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.79–2.14
  5. W2–16 SepDundee FC (H)xG 1.93–0.42
  6. W3–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.86–1.47

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianHearts
Position12th3rd
Played99
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠1–⁠65–⁠1–⁠3
Points7 (0.78 per game)16 (1.78 per game)
Expected Points per game1.381.70
Goals9–⁠1420–⁠15
xG per game1.56–⁠1.551.93–⁠1.54
Home: points, xG per game0.20, 1.52–⁠1.343.00, 2.44–⁠0.74
Away: points, xG per game1.50, 1.60–⁠1.810.80, 1.52–⁠2.18
ManagerMarink Reedijk (2)Wouter Vrancken (9)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackHibernian1.32, 5thHearts1.52, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.28, 4thHearts1.16, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHibernian attack: 1.32Hearts attack: 1.521.521.32HeartsHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHibernian defence: 1.28Hearts defence: 1.161.281.16

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−15%−2%+6%average
Counter-attacks−22%−8%−20%−10%
Set pieces+5%−15%+32%+4%
Penalties+71%+14%+129%−43%
Headers−42%+2%−14%+40%
Left side−12%−3%+41%+6%
Centre−26%+6%+13%+15%
Right side+16%−28%−35%−30%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdHearts concededLeft side−12%−30%Centre−26%+15%Right side+16%+6%Open play−15%averageCounter-attacks−22%−10%Set pieces+5%+4%Headers−42%+40%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdHibernian concededLeft side+41%−28%Centre+13%+6%Right side−35%−3%Open play+6%−2%Counter-attacks−20%−8%Set pieces+32%−15%Headers−14%+2%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianHearts

1.56xG1.93
1.55xG against1.54
53%Possession54%
16.4Shots17.1
13.0Shots against10.4
4.2Shots on target5.3
2.0Big chances2.6
31.3Touches in the opposition box29.7
459Passes455
81%Pass accuracy80%
6.8Corners6.9
55%Field tilt59%
44.7Final-third entries38.2
15.0Box entries16.5
14.7Passes per defensive action12.1

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level321.081.72
Ahead151.552.02
Behind431.911.25

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level211.751.55
Ahead412.011.30
Behind281.951.87

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.091–2
16–300.180.202–2
31–450.280.411–6
46–600.290.282–0
61–750.280.162–1
76–900.370.401–3

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.164–3
16–300.250.102–2
31–450.510.355–3
46–600.340.283–3
61–750.200.132–1
76–900.330.514–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWSallinger 9Kerr 9Passlack 2O'Hora 2Hanley 4Ivezić 2Obita 4Iredale 2Abdulai 1Passlack 6Wright 1Megwa 1Mulligan 9Chaiwa 6Devaney 2Wright 1Mayor 6Wright 1Iredale 1Elding 3Boyle 3Šuto 1Lowe 4Boyle 2Šuto 2Klidje 4McGrath 2Boyle 13-4-3 in 3 of 9 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (3), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTReus 9Altena 8Borchgrevink 1McCart 5McEntee 4Fagan-Walcott 2Findlay 6Milne 1McCart 2Kingsley 2Milne 2Magnússon 3McEntee 2Ageu 1Mendy 7Spittal 3Renaud 1Miller 6Kerjota 3Braga 7Guendouz 1Ba-Sy 1McPake 8Miller 1Wilson 6Braga 2Ba-Sy 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
3 September 2026Hibernian1–3HeartsxG 1.47–0.86
26 April 2026Hibernian1–2HeartsxG 0.54–1.83
10 February 2026Hearts1–0HibernianxG 0.66–0.38
27 December 2025Hibernian3–2HeartsxG 1.51–1.78
4 October 2025Hearts1–0HibernianxG 0.80–0.39
2 March 2025Hibernian2–1HeartsxG 0.61–0.69

18 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 4, Hearts won 7, and 7 were drawn. Goals 17–24 and xG 1.25–1.11 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Boyle6505300.550.20
Passlack8734020.070.26
Mayor6539100.060.15
Mulligan9795010.130.08

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miller8589310.460.13
Braga9726320.470.10
McPake8610350.210.23
Mendy8672300.180.07

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.