Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Hearts v Dundee FC

Wednesday 3 February 2027, 19:45 · Tynecastle Park · Round 26

Forecast

HeartsDundee FC
Expected goals2.000.87
Win63%15%
Expected Points2.120.67
Clean sheet42%14%

Hearts 63%Draw 22%Dundee FC 15%

Most likely score 2–0, 11%. Both sides score 51%.

Dundee FC goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+6%4%2%4%1%4%1%8%7%3%4%3%1%2%1%11%10%11%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Hearts

  1. L1–718 OctCeltic (A)xG 1.20–4.23
  2. W5–010 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.43–0.68
  3. D1–119 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 1.92–0.39
  4. L1–215 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.79–2.14
  5. W2–16 SepDundee FC (H)xG 1.93–0.42
  6. W3–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.86–1.47

Dundee FC

  1. D2–217 OctRangers (H)xG 1.77–1.80
  2. W2–110 OctFalkirk (A)xG 1.41–1.97
  3. W2–119 SepMotherwell (H)xG 1.38–1.10
  4. L1–26 SepHearts (A)xG 0.42–1.93
  5. D1–12 SepSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.07–1.08
  6. L1–230 AugHibernian (H)xG 1.03–2.33

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsDundee FC
Position3rd4th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠1–⁠34–⁠2–⁠3
Points16 (1.78 per game)14 (1.56 per game)
Expected Points per game1.701.21
Goals20–⁠1513–⁠10
xG per game1.93–⁠1.541.31–⁠1.60
Home: points, xG per game3.00, 2.44–⁠0.741.60, 1.62–⁠1.41
Away: points, xG per game0.80, 1.52–⁠2.181.50, 0.94–⁠1.84
ManagerWouter Vrancken (9)Steven Pressley (47)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackHearts1.52, 3rdDundee FC1.13, 10thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.16, 3rdDundee FC1.53, 11th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHearts attack: 1.52Dundee FC attack: 1.131.521.13Dundee FCHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHearts defence: 1.16Dundee FC defence: 1.531.531.16

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsDundee FC
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+6%average−30%+16%
Counter-attacks−20%−10%−25%−63%
Set pieces+32%+4%+28%−19%
Penalties+129%−43%−43%+14%
Headers−14%+40%+39%+3%
Left side+41%+6%+14%+18%
Centre+13%+15%−22%−25%
Right side−35%−30%−37%+15%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdDundee FC concededLeft side+41%+15%Centre+13%−25%Right side−35%+18%Open play+6%+16%Counter-attacks−20%−63%Set pieces+32%−19%Headers−14%+3%

Dundee FC attacking

Dundee FC createdHearts concededLeft side+14%−30%Centre−22%+15%Right side−37%+6%Open play−30%averageCounter-attacks−25%−10%Set pieces+28%+4%Headers+39%+40%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsDundee FC

1.93xG1.31
1.54xG against1.60
54%Possession38%
17.1Shots12.3
10.4Shots against19.1
5.3Shots on target4.7
2.6Big chances2.7
29.7Touches in the opposition box19.1
455Passes336
80%Pass accuracy73%
6.9Corners4.9
59%Field tilt25%
38.2Final-third entries26.9
16.5Box entries9.5
12.1Passes per defensive action19.6

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level211.751.55
Ahead412.011.30
Behind281.951.87

Dundee FC

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.451.49
Ahead301.211.70
Behind151.091.70

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.164–3
16–300.250.102–2
31–450.510.355–3
46–600.340.283–3
61–750.200.132–1
76–900.330.514–3

Dundee FC

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.070.151–0
16–300.330.162–1
31–450.200.363–3
46–600.200.173–2
61–750.190.361–1
76–900.330.403–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTReus 9Altena 8Borchgrevink 1McCart 5McEntee 4Fagan-Walcott 2Findlay 6Milne 1McCart 2Kingsley 2Milne 2Magnússon 3McEntee 2Ageu 1Mendy 7Spittal 3Renaud 1Miller 6Kerjota 3Braga 7Guendouz 1Ba-Sy 1McPake 8Miller 1Wilson 6Braga 2Ba-Sy 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Dundee FC

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTGoodman 9D. Wright 8Halliday 1Astley 9O. Bevan 9Odutayo 5Samuels 4J. Bevan 7Forrest 1Robertson 1Finnigan 6Jones 3Hamilton 9Forrest 4Reilly 4Moorhouse 1Fink 5Hay 2Forrest 1Westley 7Murray 24-4-2 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (6), 4-2-3-1 (3)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
6 September 2026Hearts2–1Dundee FCxG 1.93–0.42
21 March 2026Hearts1–0Dundee FCxG 1.64–0.56
11 January 2026Dundee FC0–1HeartsxG 1.34–0.36
1 November 2025Hearts4–0Dundee FCxG 3.43–0.10
26 April 2025Hearts0–1Dundee FCxG 1.46–0.71
1 February 2025Dundee FC0–6HeartsxG 0.37–3.06

15 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 10, Dundee FC won 4, and 1 was a draw. Goals 29–13 and xG 1.78–0.80 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miller8589310.460.13
Braga9726320.470.10
McPake8610350.210.23
Mendy8672300.180.07

Dundee FC

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Westley7537300.570.04
Forrest6531010.080.11
J. Bevan7587110.120.05
D. Wright8727110.020.12

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.