Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Aberdeen v Hearts

Saturday 9 January 2027, 15:00 · Pittodrie Stadium · Round 23

Forecast

AberdeenHearts
Expected goals1.151.45
Win29%43%
Expected Points1.151.58
Clean sheet23%32%

Aberdeen 29%Draw 27%Hearts 43%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Hearts goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+8%8%4%1%8%9%4%2%5%7%5%2%2%3%2%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Aberdeen

  1. W3–117 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.83–1.03
  2. L0–111 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.23–1.10
  3. D1–119 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.70–1.40
  4. W4–015 SepMotherwell (A)xG 0.90–0.85
  5. D0–05 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.08–1.11
  6. L0–32 SepCeltic (A)xG 0.68–2.67

Hearts

  1. L1–718 OctCeltic (A)xG 1.20–4.23
  2. W5–010 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.43–0.68
  3. D1–119 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 1.92–0.39
  4. L1–215 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.79–2.14
  5. W2–16 SepDundee FC (H)xG 1.93–0.42
  6. W3–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.86–1.47

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

AberdeenHearts
Position7th3rd
Played99
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠2–⁠45–⁠1–⁠3
Points11 (1.22 per game)16 (1.78 per game)
Expected Points per game1.151.70
Goals10–⁠1020–⁠15
xG per game1.24–⁠1.551.93–⁠1.54
Home: points, xG per game1.40, 1.63–⁠1.433.00, 2.44–⁠0.74
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 0.75–⁠1.690.80, 1.52–⁠2.18
ManagerStephen Robinson (18)Wouter Vrancken (9)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackAberdeen1.15, 9thHearts1.52, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.44, 7thHearts1.16, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctAberdeen attack: 1.15Hearts attack: 1.521.521.15HeartsAberdeenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctAberdeen defence: 1.44Hearts defence: 1.161.441.16

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

AberdeenHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−43%−16%+6%average
Counter-attacks−68%+11%−20%−10%
Set pieces+42%−14%+32%+4%
Penalties+14%+71%+129%−43%
Headers+49%−31%−14%+40%
Left side−57%+2%+41%+6%
Centre−18%−39%+13%+15%
Right side−10%+19%−35%−30%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdHearts concededLeft side−57%−30%Centre−18%+15%Right side−10%+6%Open play−43%averageCounter-attacks−68%−10%Set pieces+42%+4%Headers+49%+40%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdAberdeen concededLeft side+41%+19%Centre+13%−39%Right side−35%+2%Open play+6%−16%Counter-attacks−20%+11%Set pieces+32%−14%Headers−14%−31%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

AberdeenHearts

1.24xG1.93
1.55xG against1.54
46%Possession54%
12.1Shots17.1
15.6Shots against10.4
3.3Shots on target5.3
1.8Big chances2.6
21.9Touches in the opposition box29.7
385Passes455
77%Pass accuracy80%
5.7Corners6.9
42%Field tilt59%
38.6Final-third entries38.2
12.5Box entries16.5
14.0Passes per defensive action12.1

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level371.391.54
Ahead191.071.41
Behind341.171.64

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level211.751.55
Ahead412.011.30
Behind281.951.87

xG by period

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.030.191–3
16–300.110.261–0
31–450.120.371–4
46–600.300.152–1
61–750.150.311–2
76–900.520.264–0

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.164–3
16–300.250.102–2
31–450.510.355–3
46–600.340.283–3
61–750.200.132–1
76–900.330.514–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Aberdeen

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTMüller 9Cadden 8Lyons 1Mayo 7Milne 2Knoester 5Guinness… 1Guinness-WalkerOlusanya 1Molloy 4Happe 4Guinness… 8Guinness-WalkerCadden 1Ronan 5Olusanya 2Lyons 2Aremu 8Briedl 2Marshall 3Smith 2Yogane 1Olusanya 3Mouloua 2Ntelo 1Nisbet 9Yogane 35-3-2 in 3 of 9 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (3), 4-1-3-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTReus 9Altena 8Borchgrevink 1McCart 5McEntee 4Fagan-Walcott 2Findlay 6Milne 1McCart 2Kingsley 2Milne 2Magnússon 3McEntee 2Ageu 1Mendy 7Spittal 3Renaud 1Miller 6Kerjota 3Braga 7Guendouz 1Ba-Sy 1McPake 8Miller 1Wilson 6Braga 2Ba-Sy 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
1 August 2026Aberdeen2–1HeartsxG 2.66–1.83
28 February 2026Hearts1–0AberdeenxG 2.33–0.39
23 November 2025Aberdeen1–0HeartsxG 0.56–2.30
4 August 2025Hearts2–0AberdeenxG 1.03–1.40
12 January 2025Aberdeen0–0HeartsxG 1.10–1.54
1 December 2024Hearts1–1AberdeenxG 1.15–0.62

17 league meetings since 2020/21: Aberdeen won 7, Hearts won 7, and 3 were drawn. Goals 18–23 and xG 1.12–1.56 per game.

Key players

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nisbet9722510.590.03
Armstrong3456000.030.23
Mayo7561010.220.00
Olusanya6572000.100.05

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miller8589310.460.13
Braga9726320.470.10
McPake8610350.210.23
Mendy8672300.180.07

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.