Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Hearts v Hibernian

Sunday 27 December 2026, 12:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 20

Forecast

HeartsHibernian
Expected goals1.671.01
Win52%22%
Expected Points1.820.92
Clean sheet36%19%

Hearts 52%Draw 25%Hibernian 22%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 52%.

Hibernian goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+7%6%4%1%6%2%5%2%5%5%3%2%2%1%11%12%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Hearts

  1. L1–718 OctCeltic (A)xG 1.20–4.23
  2. W5–010 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.43–0.68
  3. D1–119 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 1.92–0.39
  4. L1–215 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.79–2.14
  5. W2–16 SepDundee FC (H)xG 1.93–0.42
  6. W3–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.86–1.47

Hibernian

  1. L1–217 OctFalkirk (H)xG 1.35–0.74
  2. L0–110 OctDundee United (A)xG 0.77–1.68
  3. D1–119 SepAberdeen (H)xG 1.40–0.70
  4. L0–115 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.45–2.21
  5. L1–26 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.61–2.32
  6. L1–33 SepHearts (H)xG 1.47–0.86

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsHibernian
Position3rd12th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠1–⁠32–⁠1–⁠6
Points16 (1.78 per game)7 (0.78 per game)
Expected Points per game1.701.38
Goals20–⁠159–⁠14
xG per game1.93–⁠1.541.56–⁠1.55
Home: points, xG per game3.00, 2.44–⁠0.740.20, 1.52–⁠1.34
Away: points, xG per game0.80, 1.52–⁠2.181.50, 1.60–⁠1.81
ManagerWouter Vrancken (9)Marink Reedijk (2)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackHearts1.52, 3rdHibernian1.32, 5thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.16, 3rdHibernian1.28, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHearts attack: 1.52Hibernian attack: 1.321.521.32HibernianHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHearts defence: 1.16Hibernian defence: 1.281.281.16

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+6%average−15%−2%
Counter-attacks−20%−10%−22%−8%
Set pieces+32%+4%+5%−15%
Penalties+129%−43%+71%+14%
Headers−14%+40%−42%+2%
Left side+41%+6%−12%−3%
Centre+13%+15%−26%+6%
Right side−35%−30%+16%−28%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdHibernian concededLeft side+41%−28%Centre+13%+6%Right side−35%−3%Open play+6%−2%Counter-attacks−20%−8%Set pieces+32%−15%Headers−14%+2%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdHearts concededLeft side−12%−30%Centre−26%+15%Right side+16%+6%Open play−15%averageCounter-attacks−22%−10%Set pieces+5%+4%Headers−42%+40%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsHibernian

1.93xG1.56
1.54xG against1.55
54%Possession53%
17.1Shots16.4
10.4Shots against13.0
5.3Shots on target4.2
2.6Big chances2.0
29.7Touches in the opposition box31.3
455Passes459
80%Pass accuracy81%
6.9Corners6.8
59%Field tilt55%
38.2Final-third entries44.7
16.5Box entries15.0
12.1Passes per defensive action14.7

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level211.751.55
Ahead412.011.30
Behind281.951.87

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level321.081.72
Ahead151.552.02
Behind431.911.25

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.164–3
16–300.250.102–2
31–450.510.355–3
46–600.340.283–3
61–750.200.132–1
76–900.330.514–3

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.091–2
16–300.180.202–2
31–450.280.411–6
46–600.290.282–0
61–750.280.162–1
76–900.370.401–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTReus 9Altena 8Borchgrevink 1McCart 5McEntee 4Fagan-Walcott 2Findlay 6Milne 1McCart 2Kingsley 2Milne 2Magnússon 3McEntee 2Ageu 1Mendy 7Spittal 3Renaud 1Miller 6Kerjota 3Braga 7Guendouz 1Ba-Sy 1McPake 8Miller 1Wilson 6Braga 2Ba-Sy 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWSallinger 9Kerr 9Passlack 2O'Hora 2Hanley 4Ivezić 2Obita 4Iredale 2Abdulai 1Passlack 6Wright 1Megwa 1Mulligan 9Chaiwa 6Devaney 2Wright 1Mayor 6Wright 1Iredale 1Elding 3Boyle 3Šuto 1Lowe 4Boyle 2Šuto 2Klidje 4McGrath 2Boyle 13-4-3 in 3 of 9 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (3), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
3 September 2026Hibernian1–3HeartsxG 1.47–0.86
26 April 2026Hibernian1–2HeartsxG 0.54–1.83
10 February 2026Hearts1–0HibernianxG 0.66–0.38
27 December 2025Hibernian3–2HeartsxG 1.51–1.78
4 October 2025Hearts1–0HibernianxG 0.80–0.39
2 March 2025Hibernian2–1HeartsxG 0.61–0.69

18 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 7, Hibernian won 4, and 7 were drawn. Goals 24–17 and xG 1.11–1.25 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miller8589310.460.13
Braga9726320.470.10
McPake8610350.210.23
Mendy8672300.180.07

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Boyle6505300.550.20
Passlack8734020.070.26
Mayor6539100.060.15
Mulligan9795010.130.08

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.