Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Dundee United v Kilmarnock

Saturday 19 December 2026, 15:00 · CalForth Construction Arena at Tannadice Park · Round 19

Forecast

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock
Expected goals1.731.11
Win51%24%
Expected Points1.790.96
Clean sheet33%18%

Dundee United 51%Draw 25%Kilmarnock 24%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 56%.

Kilmarnock goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+6%6%4%1%6%2%5%2%5%6%3%1%2%2%1%10%12%9%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page. How the forecasts work.

Form

Dundee United

  1. D1–117 OctSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.02–1.29
  2. W1–010 OctHibernian (H)xG 1.68–0.77
  3. W3–019 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.60–0.99
  4. D1–15 SepFalkirk (H)xG 2.66–1.27
  5. L0–32 SepMotherwell (A)xG 0.16–2.39
  6. W4–029 AugKilmarnock (A)xG 3.42–1.13

Kilmarnock

  1. W3–217 OctMotherwell (H)xG 1.64–3.37
  2. L1–310 OctRangers (A)xG 1.15–1.42
  3. D1–119 SepHearts (H)xG 0.39–1.92
  4. W1–015 SepHibernian (A)xG 2.21–1.45
  5. D0–05 SepAberdeen (A)xG 1.11–1.08
  6. L0–12 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.41–0.85

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock
Position6th11th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠3–⁠32–⁠2–⁠5
Points12 (1.33 per game)8 (0.89 per game)
Expected Points per game1.450.77
Goals11–⁠1210–⁠20
xG per game1.55–⁠1.441.10–⁠2.34
Home: points, xG per game1.25, 1.79–⁠1.230.80, 0.91–⁠3.01
Away: points, xG per game1.40, 1.36–⁠1.601.00, 1.35–⁠1.49
ManagerJim Goodwin (97)Neil McCann (25)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackDundee United1.24, 6thKilmarnock1.17, 8thDefence (lower is better)Dundee United1.43, 6thKilmarnock1.62, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctDundee United attack: 1.24Kilmarnock attack: 1.171.241.17KilmarnockDundee UnitedDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctDundee United defence: 1.43Kilmarnock defence: 1.621.621.43

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−30%+6%−15%+53%
Counter-attacks+56%−64%−69%+102%
Set pieces+53%−13%−25%+31%
Penalties−43%−43%−100%−43%
Headers−5%−36%−44%+116%
Left side−26%+9%−14%+49%
Centre−2%−4%−33%+101%
Right side+34%−28%−20%−15%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−26%−15%Centre−2%+101%Right side+34%+49%Open play−30%+53%Counter-attacks+56%+102%Set pieces+53%+31%Headers−5%+116%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdDundee United concededLeft side−14%−28%Centre−33%−4%Right side−20%+9%Open play−15%+6%Counter-attacks−69%−64%Set pieces−25%−13%Headers−44%−36%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock

1.55xG1.10
1.44xG against2.34
51%Possession43%
15.9Shots10.9
14.9Shots against18.2
5.6Shots on target4.2
2.2Big chances2.0
30.0Touches in the opposition box21.6
421Passes393
79%Pass accuracy77%
6.3Corners4.7
46%Field tilt39%
39.0Final-third entries36.9
14.0Box entries10.5
12.2Passes per defensive action16.5

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 8 and 8 of those matches.

Game state this season

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level251.891.30
Ahead261.741.14
Behind391.201.72

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level311.082.19
Ahead191.332.28
Behind401.022.47

xG by period

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.240.343–3
16–300.140.210–2
31–450.440.215–1
46–600.190.300–3
61–750.240.210–3
76–900.310.163–0

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.281–4
16–300.090.501–3
31–450.180.412–5
46–600.240.424–3
61–750.200.251–2
76–900.200.471–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Dundee United

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWWalton 9Rawlins 8Yoro 1Esselink 9Forbes 9Ferry 5Ciubotaru 4Camará 4Sevelj 3Yoro 2Tait 7Agyei 4Cameron 4Iqbal 3Randall 4Merghem 4Bennie 1Metsoko 4Sapsford 3Rose 2Bennie 6Randall 2Sapsford 14-3-3 in every start

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTStryjek 6Ferrie 3Ring 3Brandon 3Kamara 2McCarthy 6Schilte-Brown 1Stanger 8Yfeko 2Deas 1Schjønning-L… 9Schjønning-LarsenTshibola 4O'Hara 2Lowery 8Rice 3Ring 1Ring 4Kiltie 2McCarthy 1John-Jules 4Kiltie 3Lowery 1Hugill 4Kiltie 4Cleșcenco 1Hugill 4John-Jules 4Daniëls 14-2-3-1 in 2 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
29 August 2026Kilmarnock0–4Dundee UnitedxG 1.13–3.42
2 May 2026Kilmarnock3–0Dundee UnitedxG 2.40–2.11
21 February 2026Dundee United1–1KilmarnockxG 2.05–0.50
29 November 2025Kilmarnock1–1Dundee UnitedxG 2.11–1.86
27 September 2025Dundee United0–2KilmarnockxG 2.21–1.49
1 February 2025Kilmarnock1–0Dundee UnitedxG 1.39–1.46

16 league meetings since 2020/21: Dundee United won 3, Kilmarnock won 7, and 6 were drawn. Goals 18–25 and xG 1.62–1.56 per game.

Key players

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Randall6596230.310.33
Bennie7503110.440.09
Tait7673000.080.15
Forbes9810100.110.04

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kiltie9776300.350.18
John-Jules8560100.250.12
Hugill9810110.240.04
Ring8623000.070.18

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.