Updated 07:04, 20 Oct.
This page shows each team's rating in the forecast, what goes into it, and how it compares with the betting market's. Every rating is shown as the goals a team would score and concede in a game against an average side at a neutral ground, and the difference between the two. How the forecasts work explains each of our ratings and how we simulate the season.
Goal difference per game against an average side. The gap is ours minus the market's: above zero, we rate the team higher. The market's ratings come from 55 matches' prices (7 from Pinnacle, 48 from Betfair Exchange), 6 of them for matches still to come; the latest is from Tue 20 Oct, 05:05.
Attack and defence rates each team on the goals it scores and concedes: 70% expected goals and 30% goals in every league match, with recent matches counting most. Expected Points rates it on 85% Expected Points and 15% points. Both start from what squad value predicts, and ours blends the two evenly. Open a team below for how each part translates into goals, and what each rating rests on.
Celtic ours +1.29 · market +1.28
| Rating | Scored | Conceded | Difference |
|---|
| Squad value alone | 2.04 | 0.92 | +1.13 |
| Attack and defence | 2.23 | 0.98 | +1.25 |
| Expected Points rating | 2.11 | 0.79 | +1.32 |
| Ours: the two blended | 2.17 | 0.88 | +1.29 |
| This season's games alone | 1.95 | 0.98 | +0.96 |
| Market | 2.28 | 1.00 | +1.28 |
Squad value €118.4m, 7.3 times the league average. The Expected Points rating is 2.21 points per game; it started the season at 2.24, from squad value.
What the attack and defence rating rests on
This season 22% · last season 45% · earlier 16% · squad value 17%
What the Expected Points rating rests on
This season 38% · last season 40% · earlier 3% · squad value 19%
This season: 9 games, with 2.93 expected goals for and 1.05 against, 2.31 Expected Points, and 2.67 points a game.
Rangers ours +0.90 · market +1.14
| Rating | Scored | Conceded | Difference |
|---|
| Squad value alone | 2.15 | 0.88 | +1.27 |
| Attack and defence | 1.98 | 1.09 | +0.89 |
| Expected Points rating | 1.82 | 0.91 | +0.91 |
| Ours: the two blended | 1.90 | 1.00 | +0.90 |
| This season's games alone | 1.60 | 1.05 | +0.55 |
| Market | 2.10 | 0.96 | +1.14 |
Squad value €148.7m, 9.1 times the league average. The Expected Points rating is 1.97 points per game; it started the season at 2.14, from squad value.
What the attack and defence rating rests on
This season 22% · last season 44% · earlier 16% · squad value 18%
What the Expected Points rating rests on
This season 38% · last season 40% · earlier 3% · squad value 19%
This season: 9 games, with 2.13 expected goals for and 1.10 against, 1.98 Expected Points, and 2.22 points a game.
Hearts ours +0.36 · market +0.44
| Rating | Scored | Conceded | Difference |
|---|
| Squad value alone | 1.41 | 1.25 | +0.16 |
| Attack and defence | 1.53 | 1.21 | +0.32 |
| Expected Points rating | 1.50 | 1.11 | +0.40 |
| Ours: the two blended | 1.52 | 1.16 | +0.36 |
| This season's games alone | 1.53 | 1.27 | +0.27 |
| Market | 1.66 | 1.22 | +0.44 |
Squad value €22.0m, 1.4 times the league average. The Expected Points rating is 1.64 points per game; it started the season at 1.68, from squad value.
What the attack and defence rating rests on
This season 22% · last season 43% · earlier 16% · squad value 19%
What the Expected Points rating rests on
This season 38% · last season 40% · earlier 3% · squad value 19%
This season: 9 games, with 1.93 expected goals for and 1.54 against, 1.70 Expected Points, and 1.78 points a game.
Motherwell ours +0.02 · market −0.09
| Rating | Scored | Conceded | Difference |
|---|
| Squad value alone | 1.32 | 1.32 | 0.00 |
| Attack and defence | 1.39 | 1.34 | +0.05 |
| Expected Points rating | 1.28 | 1.30 | −0.02 |
| Ours: the two blended | 1.33 | 1.32 | +0.02 |
| This season's games alone | 1.31 | 1.43 | −0.12 |
| Market | 1.32 | 1.41 | −0.09 |
Squad value €16.3m, 1.0 times the league average. The Expected Points rating is 1.38 points per game; it started the season at 1.45, from squad value.
What the attack and defence rating rests on
This season 22% · last season 43% · earlier 16% · squad value 19%
What the Expected Points rating rests on
This season 38% · last season 40% · earlier 3% · squad value 19%
This season: 9 games, with 1.71 expected goals for and 1.85 against, 1.40 Expected Points, and 0.89 points a game.
Hibernian ours +0.04 · market +0.22
| Rating | Scored | Conceded | Difference |
|---|
| Squad value alone | 1.37 | 1.28 | +0.08 |
| Attack and defence | 1.35 | 1.26 | +0.09 |
| Expected Points rating | 1.28 | 1.30 | −0.01 |
| Ours: the two blended | 1.32 | 1.28 | +0.04 |
| This season's games alone | 1.25 | 1.37 | −0.12 |
| Market | 1.44 | 1.22 | +0.22 |
Squad value €19.1m, 1.2 times the league average. The Expected Points rating is 1.38 points per game; it started the season at 1.45, from squad value.
What the attack and defence rating rests on
This season 21% · last season 43% · earlier 16% · squad value 20%
What the Expected Points rating rests on
This season 38% · last season 40% · earlier 3% · squad value 19%
This season: 9 games, with 1.56 expected goals for and 1.55 against, 1.38 Expected Points, and 0.78 points a game.
Dundee United ours −0.19 · market −0.19
| Rating | Scored | Conceded | Difference |
|---|
| Squad value alone | 1.25 | 1.39 | −0.14 |
| Attack and defence | 1.26 | 1.51 | −0.25 |
| Expected Points rating | 1.22 | 1.36 | −0.14 |
| Ours: the two blended | 1.24 | 1.43 | −0.19 |
| This season's games alone | 1.32 | 1.27 | +0.05 |
| Market | 1.29 | 1.49 | −0.19 |
Squad value €12.6m, 0.8 times the league average. The Expected Points rating is 1.30 points per game; it started the season at 1.17, from squad value.
What the attack and defence rating rests on
This season 22% · last season 45% · earlier 13% · squad value 20%
What the Expected Points rating rests on
This season 38% · last season 40% · earlier 3% · squad value 19%
This season: 9 games, with 1.55 expected goals for and 1.44 against, 1.45 Expected Points, and 1.33 points a game.
Dundee FC ours −0.40 · market −0.56
| Rating | Scored | Conceded | Difference |
|---|
| Squad value alone | 1.09 | 1.55 | −0.46 |
| Attack and defence | 1.15 | 1.57 | −0.42 |
| Expected Points rating | 1.11 | 1.49 | −0.38 |
| Ours: the two blended | 1.13 | 1.53 | −0.40 |
| This season's games alone | 1.27 | 1.33 | −0.07 |
| Market | 1.08 | 1.64 | −0.56 |
Squad value €6.9m, 0.4 times the league average. The Expected Points rating is 1.15 points per game; it started the season at 1.07, from squad value.
What the attack and defence rating rests on
This season 22% · last season 43% · earlier 15% · squad value 20%
What the Expected Points rating rests on
This season 38% · last season 40% · earlier 3% · squad value 19%
This season: 9 games, with 1.31 expected goals for and 1.60 against, 1.21 Expected Points, and 1.56 points a game.
Aberdeen ours −0.29 · market −0.18
| Rating | Scored | Conceded | Difference |
|---|
| Squad value alone | 1.30 | 1.34 | −0.05 |
| Attack and defence | 1.15 | 1.43 | −0.28 |
| Expected Points rating | 1.15 | 1.45 | −0.29 |
| Ours: the two blended | 1.15 | 1.44 | −0.29 |
| This season's games alone | 1.20 | 1.33 | −0.13 |
| Market | 1.19 | 1.37 | −0.18 |
Squad value €14.9m, 0.9 times the league average. The Expected Points rating is 1.20 points per game; it started the season at 1.37, from squad value.
What the attack and defence rating rests on
This season 21% · last season 43% · earlier 16% · squad value 20%
What the Expected Points rating rests on
This season 38% · last season 40% · earlier 3% · squad value 19%
This season: 9 games, with 1.24 expected goals for and 1.55 against, 1.15 Expected Points, and 1.22 points a game.
Falkirk ours −0.27 · market −0.36
| Rating | Scored | Conceded | Difference |
|---|
| Squad value alone | 1.08 | 1.57 | −0.49 |
| Attack and defence | 1.23 | 1.41 | −0.18 |
| Expected Points rating | 1.13 | 1.48 | −0.35 |
| Ours: the two blended | 1.18 | 1.44 | −0.27 |
| This season's games alone | 1.15 | 1.42 | −0.27 |
| Market | 1.14 | 1.50 | −0.36 |
Squad value €6.5m, 0.4 times the league average. The Expected Points rating is 1.16 points per game; it started the season at 0.97, from squad value.
What the attack and defence rating rests on
This season 25% · last season 51% · earlier – · squad value 24%
What the Expected Points rating rests on
This season 39% · last season 42% · earlier – · squad value 19%
This season: 9 games, with 1.12 expected goals for and 1.78 against, 0.98 Expected Points, and 1.00 points a game.
St. Johnstone ours −0.44 · market −0.28
| Rating | Scored | Conceded | Difference |
|---|
| Squad value alone | 1.08 | 1.57 | −0.49 |
| Attack and defence | 1.09 | 1.48 | −0.39 |
| Expected Points rating | 1.06 | 1.56 | −0.50 |
| Ours: the two blended | 1.08 | 1.52 | −0.44 |
| This season's games alone | 1.22 | 1.34 | −0.12 |
| Market | 1.16 | 1.44 | −0.28 |
Squad value €6.5m, 0.4 times the league average. The Expected Points rating is 1.07 points per game; it started the season at 0.72, from squad value.
What the attack and defence rating rests on
This season 37% · last season – · earlier 27% · squad value 36%
What the Expected Points rating rests on
This season 38% · last season – · earlier 44% · squad value 19%
This season: 9 games, with 1.32 expected goals for and 1.52 against, 1.21 Expected Points, and 1.33 points a game.
St. Mirren ours −0.41 · market −0.46
| Rating | Scored | Conceded | Difference |
|---|
| Squad value alone | 1.13 | 1.51 | −0.39 |
| Attack and defence | 1.08 | 1.44 | −0.36 |
| Expected Points rating | 1.08 | 1.54 | −0.45 |
| Ours: the two blended | 1.08 | 1.49 | −0.41 |
| This season's games alone | 1.17 | 1.56 | −0.39 |
| Market | 1.20 | 1.66 | −0.46 |
Squad value €7.9m, 0.5 times the league average. The Expected Points rating is 1.10 points per game; it started the season at 1.05, from squad value.
What the attack and defence rating rests on
This season 21% · last season 43% · earlier 16% · squad value 20%
What the Expected Points rating rests on
This season 38% · last season 40% · earlier 3% · squad value 19%
This season: 9 games, with 1.43 expected goals for and 2.01 against, 1.09 Expected Points, and 1.11 points a game.
Kilmarnock ours −0.45 · market −0.73
| Rating | Scored | Conceded | Difference |
|---|
| Squad value alone | 1.09 | 1.55 | −0.46 |
| Attack and defence | 1.24 | 1.72 | −0.48 |
| Expected Points rating | 1.09 | 1.52 | −0.43 |
| Ours: the two blended | 1.17 | 1.62 | −0.45 |
| This season's games alone | 1.10 | 1.66 | −0.56 |
| Market | 1.09 | 1.82 | −0.73 |
Squad value €6.8m, 0.4 times the league average. The Expected Points rating is 1.12 points per game; it started the season at 1.20, from squad value.
What the attack and defence rating rests on
This season 22% · last season 44% · earlier 16% · squad value 18%
What the Expected Points rating rests on
This season 38% · last season 40% · earlier 3% · squad value 19%
This season: 9 games, with 1.10 expected goals for and 2.34 against, 0.77 Expected Points, and 0.89 points a game.
We differ from the market in two ways: in how we rate the teams, and in how we play out the rest of the season from those ratings (How the forecasts work has the details). Here each set of ratings, the market's included, goes through our simulation, so the Market column isn't the betting market's own title odds: it's what our simulation makes of the market's ratings.
Ours is the forecast itself. Every other column plays out the rest of the season 4,000 times on that set of ratings, from the same table: the market's, halfway between ours and the market's, each of our two ratings alone, squad values alone, and this season's games alone, without squad values or earlier seasons.
Effect on forecasts if we rated each team separately per the market while keeping the rest as they are.
The gap is ours minus the market's rating, in goal difference per game. The changes are to the team's own projected points and its chances, in percentage points, when only it moves to the market's rating; the knock-on is the biggest change that makes to anyone else's title, top-six, or bottom chance. Biggest effects first. Changes of a point or two can be noise.
Our attack and defence rating comes from every league match, with 70% expected goals and 30% goals, recent matches counting most (a match 20 rounds back counts half as much), and pulled towards a strength predicted from squad value. The Expected Points rating is a running average of 85% Expected Points and 15% points (a game ten games back counts half as much), starting each season from six games' worth of what squad value predicts. What each rating rests on splits its weight between this season's matches, last season's, earlier ones, and its squad-value starting point. Squad values alone uses today's values in both ratings; this season's games alone fits both ratings again with nothing but this season's matches, pulled gently towards average.
The market's ratings are fitted to the goal expectations implied by each match's prices: Pinnacle's, or Betfair Exchange's where Pinnacle has none, with the margin taken off in proportion. They use the closing prices of matches played, each counting half as much for every five rounds back, and the latest prices for matches still to come. In the simulations the market's ratings stay fixed through each simulated season, which matched how uncertain seasons turned out to be in our testing; every other set moves a little after each simulated match, as the forecast's do. In that testing, over five seasons, simulations on our attack and defence ratings scored about 0.002 behind simulations on market ratings, a gap too small to call. How the forecasts work.
Digressive Celts